1.The advances that have taken place in astronomy, cosmology, and biology, in the last ten years, are really extraordinary — to the point where we know more about our universe and how it works
在过去十年中， 天文学，宇宙学，生物学领域取得的进步 确实令人震惊。 以至现在，我们对宇宙及其运作有了更深入的了解，
2.than many of you might imagine.
而许多在座的各位是无法想象的。
3.But there was something else that I’ve noticed as those changes were taking place, as people were starting to find out that hmm … yeah, there really is a black hole at the center of every galaxy.
然而，我注意到另一件事， 世界确实是瞬息万变，人们开始发现 嗯…是的，每个星系中心都存在着一个黑洞。
4.The science writers and editors — I shouldn’t say science writers, I should say people who write about science — and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,
科普类作家和编辑——我不用应该说科普类作家的， 应该是那些写着关于科学的人们—— 还有编辑，会在一天辛苦的工作结束后，
5.after a hard day of work, and start talking about some of these incredible perceptions about how the universe works.
坐下来喝一两杯啤酒，聊一聊这些让人无法置信的科学结论， 聊一聊宇宙的运行。
6.And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was a very bizarre place, which is ways the world could end very suddenly.
而这类的谈话总不免停滞于一个怪异的问题，至少我认为那很奇怪， 就是世界将如何瞬间毁灭。
7.And that’s what I wanna talk about today. (Laughter) Ah, you laugh, you fools. (Laughter) Voice offstage: Can we finish up a little early?
这也是我今天所要讲的内容。（笑声） 啊，你们笑吧，你们这些笨蛋。（笑声） 台下观众：如果世界就在这几分钟毁灭，也许讲座可以早点结束？
8.(Laughter) Yeah, we need the time!
（笑声）是啊，我们时间宝贵！
9.At first it all seemed a little fantastical to me, but after challenging a lot of these ideas, I began to take a lot of them seriously. And then September 11th happened,
一开始我并不相信什么世界末日的，但通过对许多可能性的质疑， 我慢慢地开始严肃地对待它们。之后，911事件发生了，
10.and I thought, ah, God, I can’t go to the TED conference and talk about how the world is gonna end.
我想，天呐 我怎么能去TED
11.Nobody wants to hear that. Not after this!
没有人想听这个呀。911后更没人想听了！
12.And that got me into a discussion with some other people, other scientists, about maybe some other subjects, and one of the guys I talked to
正因为这个，我又跟很多人，很多科学家们讨论过， 也许还存在其他的问题，
13.who was a neuroscientist, said, you know, I think there are a lot of solutions to the problems you brought up, and reminds me of Michael’s talk yesterday
其中一位神经科学家跟我说， “我认为可以解决你所说的那些危机的方法有很多， 我想到麦克昨天的演讲，
14.and his mother saying you can’t have a solution if you don’t have a problem.
他母亲告诉他，你有了问题，就不可能没有方法解决。”
15.So we went out looking for solutions to ways that the world might end tomorrow, and lo and behold, we found them.
所以，我们开始去寻找那些方法，阻止世界的毁灭， 瞧，我们找到了。
16.Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush press conference from a couple of weeks ago.
我联想到布什总统的一个记者会， 那是几周前的事了。
17.Can we run that, Andrew?
安德鲁，可以播放吗？
18.President Bush: “Whatever it costs to defend our security, and whatever it costs to defend our freedom, we must pay it.”
布什总统：“为了维护我们的安全，保卫自由， 要付出再大的代价，也值得。”
19.I agree with the president.
我完全赞同。
20.He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists next year, a two trillion dollar federal budget which will land us back into deficit spending real fast
明年，布什总统准备花费2万亿美元对付恐怖主义分子， 而2万亿的联邦预算将再一次加速赤字增长
21.– but terrorists aren’t the only threat we face.
——但是恐怖主义并不是唯一威胁着我们的因素。
22.There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye that we’re in the same kind of denial about that we were about terrorism and what could’ve happened on September 11th.
很多严重的灾难一触即发， 而我们一如往常地忽略它们，就如 我们对待恐怖主义和9月11日所发生的事情一样
23.I would propose, therefore, that if we took 10 billion dollars from that 2.13 trillion dollar budget — which is one — or is 2/100ths of that budget
所以我建议，如果我们从那预算的2.13万亿元 拿出100亿元出来 相当于预算的百分之一或百分之二
24.– and we doled out a billion dollars to each one of these problems I’m going to talk to you about — the vast majority could be solved,
同时给我要谈的这十个问题，每个问题分配10亿元 那么我告诉你，这些问题很大部分都能被解决。
25.and the rest we could deal with. So I hope you find this both fascinating — I’m fascinated by this kind of stuff, I gotta admit —
剩下的也可处理。所以我希望， 这些东西很吸引我，我承认
26.to me these are — Richard’s cockroaches.
对我来说，这些就如理查德的蟑螂理论般
27.But I also hope — because I think the people in this room can literally change the world — I hope you take some of this stuff away with you,
但我也希望——因为我相信在座的你们可以改变世界 我希望你们能够在今天的演讲中有所收获
28.and when you have an opportunity to be influential, that you try to get some heavy duty money spent on some of these ideas.
等到你们有机会做出有影响力的事的时候 能够把钱花在这几点上
29.So let’s start. Number 10: We lose the will to survive.
所以让我们开始吧。第十点：我们正失去存活下去的信心。
30.We live in an incredible age of modern medicine; we are all much healthier than we were 20 years ago.
尽管我们生活在现代医学的神话时代： 我们比20年前更健康了，
****************************************************************
本文来源于[育能软件] 更多更全，请登录NengSoft.com
****************************************************************
31.People around the world are getting better medicine — but mentally, we’re falling apart.
而且全世界的人们能得到更好的药物– 但是精神上，我们却分崩离析
32.The World Health Organization now estimates that one out of five people on the planet is clinically depressed.
世界卫生组织（WHO）目前估计 全球有五分之一的人临床上被诊断患有抑郁症。
33.And the World Health Organization also says that depression is the biggest epidemic that humankind has ever faced.
同时世卫也强调抑郁症是 人类有史以来面对的最大疾病。
34.Soon, genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine are going to allow us to think of 100 as a normal life-span.
不久以后，基因学上的突破或更好的药物 会让我们觉得活到100岁也是正常。
35.A female child born tomorrow on average — median — will live to age 83.
将来出生的女性——平均将会活到83岁
36.Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every year that passes.
我们的生命长度几乎每过一年就会增加一岁。
37.Now the problem with all of this getting older is that people over 65 are the most likely people to commit suicide.
现在伴随着老龄化的问题却是 超过65岁的人属于最容易自杀的人群。
38.So what are the solutions?
所以解决之道是什么？
39.We don’t really have mental health insurance in this country, and it’s — (Applause) — it’s really a crime.
我们的国家并非真正具有精神健康的保险 而这个——（鼓掌）——这真是个犯罪。
40.Something like 98 percent of all people with depression — and I mean really severe depression — I have a friend with stunningly severe depression
98%的人患有抑郁症 我指的是真正严重的抑郁症 我就有个患上严重抑郁症的朋友
41.– this is a curable disease, with present medicine and present technology.
抑郁症实际上在现成的药物和技术下是可以治愈的。
42.But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.
但通常是聊天治疗和药物双管齐下。
43.Pills alone don’t do it, especially in clinically depressed people.
单纯的药物治疗是无法起作用的，尤其是对那些临床诊断为抑郁症的人来说
44.You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist — or a psychologist — and put down your 10 dollar co-pay, and get treated, just like you do when you got a cut on your arm. It’s ridiculous.
你应该去看精神科医师——或者心理医生， 放10元钱开始你的治疗 就像你手臂割到去看医生一样。这真是荒谬。
45.Secondly, drug companies are not going to develop really sophisticated psychoactive drugs. We know that most mental illnesses have a biological
其次，药品公司并不会研究真正复杂 并对精神起显著效用的药物。我们知道，大多数精神疾病都有
46.component that can be dealt with.
可处理的生物成分。
47.And we know just an amazing amount more about the brain now than we did ten years ago. We need a pump-push from the federal government,
而且我们比10年前更了解我们的大脑。 我们需要来自联邦政府的积极支持，
48.through NIH and National Science — NSF — and places like that to start helping the drug companies develop some advanced psychoactive drugs.
通过像国家卫生研究所（NIH）及国家科学基金会（NSF） 等机构帮助药品公司 研制出一些高级的治疗精神的药物。
49.Moving on. Number nine — don’t laugh — aliens invade earth.
我们继续下一个话题。第九点——别笑——外星人入侵地球。
50.10 years ago, you couldn’t have found an astronomer — well, very few astronomers — in the world who would’ve told you that there are any planets anywhere outside our solar system.
10年前，全世界没有一个天文学家， 亦或极少数宇航员——会告诉你 除了我们的太阳系还有其他类地星球存在。
51.1995 we found three, the count now’s up to 80, we’re finding about two or three a month.
但1995年我们发现了3个，现在数目已达80个， 这样算我们几乎是每个月发现2-3个。
52.All of the ones we’ve found, by the way, are in this little teeny tiny corner where we live, in the Milky Way. There must be millions of planets in the Milky Way,
我们所发现的这些星球，就在我们生活的银河系的 小小角落。这就意味着整个银河系有着上百万的这样的星球。
53.and as Carl Sagan insisted for many years, and was laughed at for it, there must be billions and billions in the universe.
正如Carl Sagan多年来坚持，却被世人嘲笑的观点， 全宇宙一定有不计其数这样的星球。
54.In a few years NASA is gonna launch four or five telescopes out to Jupiter, where there’s less dust, and start looking for Earth-like planets,
不久NASA将会发送4-5个天文望远镜到木星 那里星尘比较少，比较容易发现类地星球。
55.which we cannot see with present technology, nor detect.
因为以我们现有技术是无法在地球亲眼看到或侦测到这些星球。
56.It’s becoming obvious that the chance that life does not exist elsewhere in the universe, and probably fairly close to us, is a fairly remote idea.
现在越来越显而易见的观点是，全宇宙除了地球以外不存在任何生命，并此类生命离地球很近这一观点 已变得非常遥远。
57.And the chance that some of it isn’t more intelligent than ours is also a remote idea.
而其中外星人并不比我们聪明也是自欺欺人。
58.Remember, we’ve only been an advanced civilization — an industrial civilization, if you would — for 200 years, although every time I go to Pompeii I’m amazed that they had
请记住，我们只不过是拥有进化的文明—— 以及工业文明的物种，如果你算时间那也只有200年。 尽管我每次去庞培，我总是惊讶于他们在每条街拐弯处都拥有
59.the equivalent of a McDonald’s on every street corner too.
类似于我们现在麦当劳似的连锁店。
60.So I don’t know how much civilization really has progressed since AD 79, but there’s a great likelihood — I really believe this, and I don’t believe in aliens, but — and I don’t believe there are any aliens on the earth
所以我并不清楚自从公元79年之后我们的文明究竟进步了多少， 但有可能——我非常相信这点， 并且我虽然不相信外星人——我也不相信现在地球上有外星人
****************************************************************
本文来源于[育能软件] 更多更全，请登录NengSoft.com
****************************************************************
61.or anything like that. But there’s a likelihood that we will confront a civilization that is more intelligent than our own.
亦或任何类似于外星人的生物。但非常有可能的是，我们将来会面对一支 比我们文明更发达的种族。
62.Now, what will happen? What if they come to, you know, suck up our oceans for the hydrogen?
那么，会发生什么事呢？比如它们来了 为了氢吸光了我们的海洋？
63.And swat us away like flies, the way we swat away flies when we go into the rainforest and start logging it.
像打苍蝇一样打我们，就如我们去热带雨林砍伐树木时 拍打苍蝇一样。
64.We can look at our own history — the late physicist Gerard O’Neill said, “Advanced western civilization has had a destructive effect
回顾我们的历史，就如现代物理学家吉拉德 奥尼尔（Gerard O’Neill)所说， “先进的西方文明对所有其接触到的原始文明
65.on all primitive civilizations it has come in contact with, even in those cases where every attempt was made to protect and guard the primitive civilization.”
产生了毁灭性的影响， 即使作了很多努力保护及维持原始文明 也是徒劳。”
66.If the aliens come visiting, we’re the primitive civilization.
如果外星人来访，我们就是那原始文明。
67.So what are the solutions to this? (Laughter) Thank God you can all read!
所以解决措施是什么？（笑声） 感谢上帝你们都看的懂！
68.It may seem ridiculous, but we have a really lousy history of anticipating things like this and actually being prepared for them.
这看上去也许很荒谬。但我们历史上干过这事的不少， 并且现在也是如此准备的。
69.How much energy and money does it take to actually have a plan to negotiate with an advanced species?
准备好计划与一个具有高级文明的物种谈判 需要多少精力和金钱呢？
70.Secondly, and you’re gonna hear more from me about this — we have to become an outward-looking, space-faring nation.
第二，我将会着重讲这点—— 我们必须成为放眼宇宙的太空使用国。
71.We have got to develop the idea that the earth doesn’t last forever, our sun doesn’t last forever — if we want humanity to last forever we have to colonize the Milky Way.
我们必须清楚 地球不是永久之计， 太阳也不会永远存在—— 如果我们想要人类物种长存，我们不得不殖民银河系。
72.And that is not something that is beyond comprehension at this point.
这一点上，并不难理解。
73.(Applause) It’ll also help us a lot if we meet an advanced civilization along the way, if we’re trying to be an advanced civilization. Number eight —
（鼓掌） 这么做也帮助了我们，如果我们遇上了一个高度文明的物种， 亦或我们自己想变成高度文明的物种。第八点——
74.Voice offstage: Steve, that’s what I’m doing after TED. (Laughter & Applause) You’ve got it! You’ve got the job.
台下声音：史蒂夫，这就是我TED听完后要做的事。（笑声和掌声） 你明白了真理！这份工作属于你了！
75.Number eight: The ecosystem collapses.
第八点：生态系统的崩溃。
76.Last July, in “Science,” the journal “Science,”
去年7月的科学杂志
77.19 oceanographers published a very, very unusual article — it wasn’t really a research report, it was a screed.
19名海洋学家联名发表了一篇非常，非常特殊的文章—— 这篇文章并不是研究报告，而是篇冗长的文章。
78.They said, we’ve been looking at the oceans for a long time now, and we wanna tell you they’re not in trouble, they’re near collapse.
文章里这么写道：我们一直不停的在观测海洋。 我们想告诉世人的是，海洋系统现在并非是陷入困境，而是濒临崩溃。
79.Many other ecosystems on Earth are in real, real danger.
地球上其他生态系统也是处于非常，非常危险的境界。
80.We’re living in a time of mass extinctions that exceeds the fossil record by a factor of 10,000.
我们现在正处于物种大量灭绝的时代，数据是恐龙灭绝数据 的1万倍。
81.We have lost 25 percent of the unique species in Hawaii in the last 20 years, California is expected to lose 25 percent of its species in the next 40 years.
在过去的20年，夏威夷已经失去了其25%的独有物种， 加利福尼亚预计在以后的40年内会失去25%的物种。
82.Somewhere in the Amazon forest is the marginal tree.
亚马逊雨林的某处，会有这样一种树，己剩最后一棵。
83.You cut down that tree, the rain forest collapses as an ecosystem.
你把那棵树砍了，整个雨林会作为同一个生态系统崩溃。
84.There’s really a tree like that out there. That’s really what it comes to.
就有一棵树是这样的存在。结果也会如此。
85.And when that ecosystem collapses, it could take a major ecosystem with it, like our atmosphere. So what do we do about this? What are the solutions?
当这个生态系统崩溃之时，可能影响到另一个更大的生态系统， 比如我们的大气层。所以我们该怎么办呢？
86.There is some modeling of ecosystems going on now.
我们现在在进行一些生态系统模拟试验。
87.The problem with ecosystems is that we understand them so poorly, that we don’t know they’re really in trouble, until it’s almost too late.
生态系统的问题是，我们对它们知之甚少， 以至于我们不知道它们陷入困境，等到我们发现的时候就已将太迟了。
88.We need to know earlier that they’re getting in trouble, and we need to be able to pump possible solutions into models.
我们必须在它们陷入困境之前预知， 并能够给予模型可行的解决之道。
89.And with the kind of computing power we have now — there is, as I say, some of this going on, but it needs money.
配与我们现有的电脑技术 ——这就是我说的正在进行的模型试验，但需要金钱。
90.National Science Foundation needs to say — you know, almost all the money that’s spent on science in this country comes from the federal government, one way or another.
国家科学基金会 我们国家大多数花在科学上的资金 来自于联邦政府，以要么这样要么那样的方式。
91.And they get to prioritize, you know?
你知道项目也有优先顺序的吧？
92.There are people at the National Science Foundation who get to say this is the most important thing.
国家科学基金会需要人 站出来表示，挽救生态系统才是最重要的
93.This is one of the things they ought to be thinking more about.
这事他们需要考虑的事情之一。
94.Secondly, we need to create huge biodiversity reserves on the planet, and start moving them around.
其次，我们必须在地球上建造大面积的生物多样性保护区。 并开始波及其他地区。
95.There’s been an experiment for the last four or five years on the Georges Bank — or the Grand Banks off of Newfoundland. It’s a no-take fishing zone.
在过去的4，5年间，乔治海岸（Georges Bank)，还是 Newfoundland 的Grand Banks曾做过一个试验。这是一个禁止捕鱼的保护地。
96.They can’t fish there for a radius of 200 miles.
在半径为两百英里的地区都不准人们捕鱼。
97.And an amazing thing has happened — almost all the fish have come back, and they’re reproducing like crazy. We’re going to have to start doing this
结果令人吃惊的事情发生了——几乎所有的鱼都回来了， 并以惊人的速度繁殖。我们应该开始在全球范围内都
98.around the globe. We’re gonna have to have no-take zones.
推广这类保护区。我们要有不允许人类捕猎的地域。
99.We’re gonna have to say no more logging in the Amazon for 20 years.
我们要说亚马逊雨林必须在20年里禁止砍伐。
100.Let it recover, before we start logging again.
让它复苏吧，在我们重新开始砍伐之前。
101.(Applause) Number seven: Particle accelerator mishap.
（鼓掌） 第七点：粒子加速器的事故灾难
102.You all remember Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber?
大家都还记得Ted Kaczynski吧, 那个邮包炸弹恐怖分子？
103.One of the things he raved about was that a particle accelerator experiment could go haywire and set off a chain reaction that would destroy the world.
让他发狂的其中一件事就是粒子加速器实验 可能会失去控制产生连锁反应从而毁灭世界。
104.A lot of very sober-minded physicists, believe it or not, have had exactly the same thought.
但不管你信不信，很多冷静的物理学家 也有着同样的想法。
105.This spring, there’s a collider at Brookhaven, on Long Island — this spring it’s going to have an experiment in which it creates black holes.
今年春，在长岛的布鲁克黑文实验室 将会有个用粒子加速器创造黑洞的实验。
106.They are expecting to create little tiny black holes.
研究人员希望能够创造出非常小的黑洞
107.They expect them to evaporate. (Laughter) I hope they’re right. (Laughter) Other collider experiments — there’s one that’s gonna take place next summer
并自行消失。（笑声） 我希望他们是对的。（笑声） 其他的加速器实验——明年夏天在CERN（欧洲原子核组织）还有一个
108.at CERN — have the possibility of creating something called strangelets, which are kind of like antimatter whenever they hit other matter they destroy it,
——为了创造出奇异夸克团。 这就像反物质，当它们撞击到其他物质就毁灭一切。
109.and obliterate it. Most physicists say that the accelerators we have now are not really powerful enough to create black holes and strangelets
大多数物理学家表示我们现拥有的加速器 并不足够强大到能够创造出使我们忧虑的黑洞或奇异夸克团，
110.that we need to worry about, and they’re probably right.
也许他们是对的。
111.But — all around the world, in Japan, in Canada — there’s talk about this — of reviving this in the United States.
但是——全世界范围内，在日本，加拿大—— 有着美国正在实行此项试验的传言。
112.We shut one down that was gonna be big.
我们关闭了一个逐渐扩大的实验。
113.But there’s talk of building very big accelerators.
但传言是我们将要建造非常大型的加速器。
114.What can we do about this? What are the solutions?
我们应该怎么办呢，解决之道是什么？
115.We’ve got the fox watching the hen house here.
我们已经在监控着实验进展。
116.We need to — we need the advice of particle physicists to talk about particle physics and what should be done in particle physics,
我们需要粒子物理学家来给我们建议，来给我们解说粒子物理及 粒子物理学的发展方向。
117.but we need some outside thinking and watchdogging of what’s going on with these experiments.
但同时我们也需要以外人的眼光审视和监视 这些实验的进展。
118.Secondly, we have a natural laboratory surrounding the earth.
其次，我们有着一个围绕地球的天然实验室。
119.We have an electromagnetic field around the earth, and it’s constantly bombarded by high energy particles, like protons.
地球周围环绕着磁场， 并持续被高能量粒子，例如质子撞击着。
120.And we don’t — in my opinion — we don’t spend enough time looking at that natural laboratory and figuring out first what’s safe to do on Earth.
在我看来——我们并没有花费足够的时间 观测这个天然实验场并研究出首先在地球上做什么才是安全的实验。
121.Number six: Biotech Disaster.
第六点：生物科技灾难
122.It’s one of my favorite ones, because we’ve done several stories on BT corn.
这是我最喜爱的话题之一，因为我们已经在BT（苏云金芽胞杆菌）玉米上做了好几个类似的实验。
123.BT corn is a corn that creates its own pesticide to kill a corn-borer.
BT 玉米能够自行产生杀虫剂来消灭其天敌玉米螟。
124.You may of heard of it — heard it called Starling, especially when all those taco shells were taken out of the supermarkets about a year and a half ago.
你可能听说过它——又名Starling， 特别是这些玉米卷在一年半前 从超市里下架的时候。
125.This stuff was supposed to only be feed for animals in the United States, and it got into the human food supply, and somebody should’ve figured out
这种农产品在美国只能用来喂养动物， 但却进入了人类的食物链，应该有人清楚
126.that it would get in the human food supply very easily.
这是非常容易的。
127.But the thing that’s alarming is a couple of months ago, in Mexico, where BT corn and all genetically altered corn is totally illegal,
事情发生在几个月以前，在墨西哥这个 BT玉米和其他转基因玉米都属于非法的地区，
128.they found BT corn genes in wild corn plants.
有人发现野生的玉米基因中出现了BT玉米基因。
129.Now corn originated, we think, in Mexico.
我们猜想，在墨西哥玉米已开始改变。
130.This is the genetic biodiversity storehouse of corn.
这里是玉米的起源地，是玉米基因多样性的储存地。
131.This brings back a skepticism that has gone away recently, that superweeds and superpests could spread around the world from biotechnology, that literally could destroy the world’s food supply
这就带来了最近才淡去的怀疑理论， 那就是超级杂草和超级害虫将有一天由于生物科技而霸占全球， 并在理论上迅速毁掉全球的
132.in very short order.
食物供应。
133.So what do we do about that?
所以我们该怎么做呢？
134.We treat biotechnology with the same scrutiny we apply to nuclear power plants.
我们应该像对待核设施一样对待生物科技，怀有等同的审慎之心。
135.It’s that simple. This is an amazingly unregulated field.
就是这么简单，因为这是一个令人惊讶的无人管辖的领域。
136.When the Starling disaster happened, there was a battle between the EPA and the FDA over who really had authority, and over what parts of this,
当Starling玉米灾难发生的时候，环境保护局（EPA）却和 食品及药物管理局（FDA）就谁有权负责这事，负责此事的什么部分争吵起来，
137.and they didn’t get it straightened out for months. That’s kind of crazy.
吵了几个月都没个结果。这真是疯了！
138.Number five, one of my favorites: Reversal of the earth’s magnetic field.
第5点，也是我最喜爱的话题之一：地球磁极颠倒。
139.Believe it or not, this happens every few hundred thousand years, and has happened many times in our history — North Pole goes to the South, South Pole goes to the North, and vice versa.
信不信由你，这件事每几十万年发生一次， 而且在历史上已发生过很多次—— 北极变成了南极，南极变成了北极，然后再次颠倒。
140.But what happens, as this occurs, is that we lose our magnetic field around the earth over the period of about 100 years, and that means that all these cosmic rays and particles
但在这颠倒的过程中， 我们将会失去环绕地球的磁场大概100年。 这就意味着宇宙射线和颗粒
141.that are to come streaming at us from the sun, that this field protects us from, are — well basically, we’re gonna fry. (Laughter)
会直接从太阳向我们涌来。 我们失去了地球磁场的保护——那么结果是，我们将被烤焦。（笑声）
142.Offstage voice: Steve I have some additional hats downstairs.
台下人声：史蒂夫我在楼下有些额外的帽子。
143.So what can we do about this? Oh, by the way, we’re overdue — it’s been 780,000 years since this happened.
所以我们该如何是好？噢，顺便提一下，磁极颠倒已经大大推迟了—— 上次磁极颠倒的时间是78万年前。
144.So — it should have happened about 480,000 years ago.
所以，48万年前本该再发生一次的。
145.Oh, and here’s one other thing — scientists think now our magnetic field may be diminished by about five percent.
噢，还有一件事 ——科学家认为地球的磁场现在已经削弱了5%。
146.So maybe we’re in the throes of it.
所以也许我们已经在经历磁场巨变了。
147.One of the problems of trying to figure out how healthy the earth is, is that we have — you know, we don’t have good weather data from 60 years ago,
想要测出地球健康程度的一个麻烦在于 ——从60年前开始我们就没有好的气像数据。
148.much less data on things like the ozone layer.
其他事物例如臭氧层的数据更是少之又少。
149.So, there’s a fairly simple solution to this.
所以，解决之道很简单。
150.There’s gonna be a lot of cheap rocketry that’s gonna come online in about six or seven years, that gets us into the low atmosphere very cheaply.
在6，7年内网上将充斥着大量的廉价 火箭研究资源， 能够使我们更为便宜的到达低气层。
151.You know, we can make ozone from car tailpipes.
我们可以利用汽车的排气管制造臭氧层。
152.It’s not hard — it’s just three oxygen atoms.
这并不难——只是臭氧而已。
153.If you brought the entire ozone layer down to the surface of the earth, it would be the thickness of two pennies, at 14 pounds per square inch.
如果你把整个臭氧层拿到地球表面观看， 你会发现它只有两便士一样厚，每平方英寸14镑重。
154.You don’t need that much up there.
看来并不多。
155.We need to learn how to repair and replenish the earth’s ozone layer.
我们得学习如何修补和补充地球的臭氧层。
156.(Applause) Number four: Giant solar flares.
（掌声） 第四点：巨型太阳耀斑。
157.Solar flares are enormous magnetic outbursts from the sun that bombard the earth with high speed subatomic particles.
太阳耀斑是来自太阳的巨大磁能爆发 伴随着高速的原子粒冲击地球。
158.So far our atmosphere has done — and our magnetic field has done — pretty well protecting us from this.
迄今为止我们的大气层及磁场已 很好地保护我们远离这些危险。
159.Occasionally, we get a flare from the sun that causes havoc with communications and so forth, and electricity.
时不时的，太阳耀斑给我们的 通讯和电力造成很大影响甚至破坏。
160.But the alarming thing is that astronomers recently have been studying stars that are similar to our sun, and they’ve found that a number of them, when they’re about the age of our sun,
但令人警醒的是，近来天文学家通过对 与太阳相似的恒星研究发现 其中一些恒星当到了跟太阳年龄相同的时候，
161.brighten by a factor of as much as 20. Doesn’t last for very long.
光度是原来的20倍，并维持不了很长时间。
162.And they think these are superflares, millions of times more powerful than any flares we’ve had from our sun so far.
他们认为这些是超强恒星耀斑，比我们迄今发现的太阳耀斑的 强度大几百万倍。
163.Obviously we don’t want one of those. (Laughter) There’s a flip side to it — in studying stars like our sun we’ve found that they go through periods of diminishment,
明显我们不想碰到它们其中的任一个。（笑声） 但另一方面——在研究类日恒星的过程中 我们发现它们会经历一系列衰老消亡，
164.when their total amount of energy that’s expelled from them goes down by maybe one percent.
而它们的能量也 散发掉大概1%。
165.One percent doesn’t sound like a lot, but it would cause one hell of an ice age here.
听起来1%并不多，但却有可能导致地球回到冰河时期。
166.So what can we do about this?
所以我们该如何做呢？
167.(Laughter) Start terraforming Mars. This is one of my favorite subjects, I wrote a story about this in “Life” magazine in 1993.
（笑声）开始改造火星。这是我最喜爱的话题之一， 还在1993年于《生命》周刊上特地为此撰文。
168.This is rocket science, but it’s not hard rocket science.
这是火箭科学，却不难懂。
169.Everything that we need to make an atmosphere on Mars, and to make a livable planet on Mars, is probably there.
我们所需的能在火星上建造大气层， 及可以生存环境的一切东西，都可能在火星上存在。
170.And you just, literally, have to send little nuclear factories up there that gobble up the iron oxide on the surface of Mars and spit out the oxygen.
而我们所要做的理论上只是建造几个小型的核工厂， 大量吞噬掉火星表面的氧化铁而释放出氧气。
171.The problem is it takes 300 years to terraform Mars, minimum.
问题是改造火星至少需要300年。
172.Really more like 500 years to do it right.
真正做好这事要需500年。
173.There’s no reason why we shouldn’t start now. (Laughter) Number three — isn’t this stuff cool? (Laughter) — A new global epidemic. People have been at war with germs
没有理由不立即开始嘛！（笑声） 第三点——这个酷吧？（笑声） ——一个新的全球性传染病。人类自从诞生之时开始，
174.ever since there have been people, and from time to time the germs sure get the upper hand.
就不断与细菌做斗争， 而且常常是细菌占了上风。
175.In 1918, we had a flu epidemic in the United States that killed 20 million people.
1918年，美国爆发了一次流感死了2000万人，
176.That was back when the population was around 100 million people.
而当时人口仅有1亿。
177.The bubonic plague in Europe, in the Middle Ages, killed one out of four Europeans.
中世纪在欧洲爆发的淋巴腺鼠疫， 欧洲死了四分之一人口。
178.AIDS is coming back; Ebola seems to be rearing its head with much too much frequency, and old diseases like cholera are becoming resistant to antibiotics.
艾滋病卷土重来，伊波拉病毒也有抬头之势 多处发生， 那些老疾病，比如说霍乱也变得对抗生素有抵抗性。
179.We’ve all learned what the kind of panic that can occur when an old disease rears its head, like anthrax.
我们都知道当这些陈旧疾病重新爆发的 时候，会给人们带来多少痛苦，例如炭疽热。
180.The worst possibility is that a very simple germ, like staph, for which we have one antibiotic that still works, mutates.
最坏的可能性是最简单的细菌，例如葡萄球菌。虽然我们仍有对其 有效的抗菌素，但是其已发生变异。
181.And we know staph can do amazing things.
我们知道葡萄球菌是令人吃惊的细菌。
182.A staph cell can be next to a muscle cell in your body and borrow genes from it, when antibiotics come, and change and mutate.
当抗生素靠近的时候，人体内靠近肌肉细胞的葡萄球菌可以从肌肉细胞中借出基因， 从而变异。
183.The danger is that some germ like staph will be — will mutate into something that’s really virulent, very contagious, and will sweep through populations before we can do anything about it.
危险之处在于，一些细菌例如葡萄球菌将会—— 变异成一种非常致命及传播性的细菌， 会在我们能采取行动之前就席卷全人类。
184.That’s happened before. About 12,000 years ago, there was a massive wave of mammal extinctions in the Americas, and that is thought to have been a virulent disease.
这事以前也发生过，在大概一万两千年前， 在美洲发生过大规模的哺乳动物灭绝。 据说这就是由一种致命疾病引起的。
185.So what can we do about it?
所以我们该怎么办呢？
186.It is nuts. We give antibiotics — (Applause) — every cow, every lamb, every chicken, they get antibiotics every day, all — you know, you go to a restaurant, you eat fish, I got news for you,
这真是疯了。我们每天给——（掌声） 每头牛，每只羊，每只鸡都注入抗生素， 所有食物——你知道，当你去餐厅吃鱼的时候，我告诉你，
187.it’s all farmed. You know, you gotta ask when you go to a restaurant if it’s a wild fish, cause they’re not gonna tell you. We’re giving away the code —
这鱼也是饲料鱼。然后你会问餐馆这鱼是否是野生的， 因为餐馆是不会自觉告诉你的。我们正在泄露密码——
188.this is like being at war, and giving somebody your secret code.
这就像打仗一样，我们把密码泄露给了敌方。
189.We’re telling the germs out there how to fight us.
——我们正在告诉细菌们如何跟我们作战的方法。
190.We gotta fix that. We gotta outlaw that right away.
我们要解决这点，我们要在法律上采取行动，把这些行为制定为非法。
191.Secondly, our public health system, as we saw with anthrax, is a real disaster.
其次，我们的公共卫生系统是一个灾难，正如炭疽热见证的那样。
192.We have a real major outbreak of disease in the United States, we are not prepared to cope with it.
在美国有个如此之大的疾病爆发， 而我们却完全没准备。
193.Now there is money in the federal budget, next year, to build up the public health service.
明年联邦预算中将会有一笔钱运用于 建造公共卫生服务系统。
194.But I don’t think to any extent that it really needs to be done.
但我不认为有任何理由需要作出此行为。
195.Number two — my favorite — we meet a rogue black hole.
第二点——我最爱的——我们会遇到一个流氓黑洞。
196.You know, 10 years ago — or 15 years ago, really — you walk into an astronomy convention, and you say, “You know, there’s probably a black hole at the center of every galaxy,”
10年前——亦或15年前， 当你在天文学大会上发言， 说，“你知道，很有可能每个银河系的中心都有个黑洞。”
197.and they’re gonna hoot you off the stage.
那你就会被人轰下台。
198.And now if you went into one of those conventions and you said, “Well, I don’t think black holes are out there,” they’d hoot you off the stage.
但现在，倘若你在大会上说， “唔，我不觉得那里有黑洞。”那你才会被轰下台。
199.Our comprehension of the way the universe works is really — has just gained unbelievably in recent years.
我们对宇宙运行方式的理解 在近年来是突飞猛进。
200.We think that there are about 10 million dead stars in the Milky Way alone — our galaxy.
据说单单银河系就有大概1000万的死亡恒星，
201.And these stars have compressed down to maybe something like 12, 15 miles wide, and they are black holes. And they are gobbling up everything around them,
这些恒星压缩成直径大概12，或15英里的物质， 这就是黑洞。它们能吞噬周围的任何物质，
202.including light, which is why we can’t see them.
甚至包括光，这就是为什么我们看不到它们。
203.Most of them should be in orbit around something.
大多数黑洞绕着某些东西的固定轨道飞行，
204.But galaxies are very violent places, and things can be spun out of orbit.
但星系是个极不稳定的空间，物体很容易脱离轨道。
205.also, space is incredibly vast.
并且，这个空间无限大。
206.So even if you flung a million of these things out of orbit, the chances that one would actually hit us is fairly remote.
所以即使有一百万个黑洞脱离轨道， 其中一个能够击中我们的机会也是极其渺小的。
207.But — it only has to get close; about a billion miles away, one of these things.
但是——它只要靠近了地球，即使是在十亿英里之外，
208.About a billion miles away, here’s what happens to earth’s orbit — it becomes elliptical instead of circular.
地球运行的轨道就会发生改变—— 会变成椭圆地运行，而非圆形。
209.And for three months out of the year, the surface temperatures go up to 150 to 180; for three months out of the year they go to 50 below zero.
这样一年中有三个月， 地球表面温度会达到150至180度之间。 然后三个月，温度会骤降到零下50度。
210.That won’t work too well. What can we do about this?
这样就不妙了。我们该怎么做呢？
211.And this is my scariest — (Laughter) I don’t have a good answer for this one.
而这是我最怕的！——（笑声） 因为对此问题我没有个好的答案。
212.Again, we gotta think about being a colonizing race.
我们再次会想到，成为一个殖民的种族。
213.And finally, number one — biggest danger to life as we know it, I think, a really big asteroid heads for earth.
最后，第一点——我想也是我们生命中最大的威胁， 那就是有一颗体积较大的小行星撞击地球。
214.The important thing to remember here — this is not a question of if, this is a question of when, and how big.
这里很重要的一点需要记住的是——不是怀疑它的可能性， 而是什么时候，有多大。
215.In 1908, a — just a 200 foot piece of a comet — exploded over Siberia and flattened forests for maybe 100 miles.
1908年，有一颗大概200英寸的彗星碎片—— 在西伯利亚坠毁，铲平了方圆大概100英里的树木。
216.It had the effect of about 1,000 Hiroshima bombs.
它的效果相当于1000颗当时投在广岛的原子弹。
217.Astronomers estimate that little asteroids like that come about every hundred years in 1989 a large asteroid passed 400,000 miles away from earth.
天文学家估计小行星每几百年造访地球一次。 1989年一个大型的小行星刚和地球擦肩而过相差仅大概40万英里。
218.Nothing to worry about, right?
没什么需要担心的，是不？
219.It passed directly through earth’s orbit. We were in that that spot six hours earlier.
它直接穿过地球的轨道，而地球在6个小时前就运行在那点上。
220.a small asteroid, say a half mile wide, would touch off firestorms followed by severe global cooling from the debris kicked up — Carl Sagan’s nuclear winter thing —
一颗大概直径半英里的小行星，可能会引起风暴性大火 紧跟着残骸产生的极度严寒遍及全球—— 卡尔 萨根所描述的核冬天——
221.an asteroid five miles wide causes major extinctions — we think the one that got the dinosaurs was about five miles wide.
直径5英里的小行星导致的大灭绝—— 我们认为当时导致恐龙灭绝的就是个直径5英里的小行星。
222.Where are they? There’s something called the Kuiper belt, which — some people think Pluto’s not a planet, that’s where Pluto is, its in the Kuiper belt.
它们是什么？它们被称作柯伊伯带， 是个——一些人认为冥王星不是星球， 柯伊伯带就是冥王星所在地。
223.There’s also something a little farther out called the Oort cloud.
稍远之处被称作奥尔特云。
224.There are about 100,000 balls of ice and rock — comets, really — out there, that are 50 miles in diameter or more, and they regularly take a little spin
那里堆积了约10万个冰封的石头——实际上就是彗星 直径均为50英里或更大， 规律地面朝太阳旋转着
225.in towards the sun and pass reasonably close to us.
并合理的从地球旁驶过。
226.Of more concern, I think, is the asteroids that exist between Mars and Jupiter.
我更关注的是火星和木星之间的小行星。
227.The folks at the Sloan Digital Sky Survey told us last fall — they’re making the first map of the universe — three dimensional map of the universe.
斯隆数字巡天勘探中心人员去年秋季告诉我们—— 他们正在绘制宇宙的第一张三维地图，
228.that there are probably 700,000 asteroids between Mars and Jupiter that are a half a mile big or bigger.
其中火星和木星之间就有70万个小行星 大概有半英里甚至更大。
229.So you say yeah, well, what are really the chances of this happening?
你也许会问，这种事发生的几率是多少？
230.Andrew, can you put that chart up?
安德鲁，能否帮我打开图表？
231.This is a chart that Dr. Clark Chapman at the Southwestern Research Institute presented to Congress a few years ago.
这是西南研究所的克拉克查普曼博士所绘制的图表， 并在几年前提交给了国会。
232.You’ll notice that the chance of an asteroid slash comet impact killing you is about one in 20,000, according to the work they’ve done.
根据他们调查结果，你会发现小行星撞击灭绝人类的 几率是2万分之1.
233.Now look at the one right below that.
让我们看看正下方的数据。
234.Passenger aircraft crash, one in 20,000.
旅客飞机失事几率，2万分之1.
235.We spend an awful lot of money trying to be sure that we don’t die in airplane accidents, and we’re not spending hardly anything on this. And yet, this is completely preventable.
我们花大笔钱期望我们不会死于飞机事故， 尽管这是完全可以预防的。
236.We finally have, just in the last year, the technology to stop this cold.
去年我们最终拥有阻止这个冷局的技术。
237.Could we have the solutions?
解决之道是什么？
238.NASA’s spending three million dollars a year — three million bucks — that is like pocket change — to search for asteroids.
NASA每年仅花费300万元来搜索小行星——300万元啊 根本不值得一提。
239.Because we can actually figure out every asteroid that’s out there, and if it might hit earth, and when it might hit earth.
因为我们能够对每个小行星进行辨认， 知道它们是否会撞上地球及发生的时间。
240.And they’re trying to do that.
这就是他们正在尝试计算的事。
241.But it’s gonna take them 10 years, at spending three million dollars a year, and even then they claim they’ll only have about 80 percent of them catalogued.
但是每年只花300万元，这样要花费10年才能算出来， 而且即使这样他们也宣称只有80%的小行星编录在案。
242.Comets are a tougher act.
彗星是个更难处理的玩意。
243.We don’t really have the technology to predict comet trajectories, or when one with our name on it might arrive.
我们还未拥有能够预测出彗星轨道的技术， 或者算出其中这些我们命名的彗星啥时能够到访。
244.But we would have lots of time, if we see it coming.
但如果有来我们也仍有大量时间。
245.We really need a dedicated observatory.
我们真正需要的是专人看管的天文台。
246.You’ll notice that a lot of comets are named after people you never heard of — amateur astronomers? That’s because nobody’s looking for them, except amateurs.
你会注意到大多数彗星都是以你未曾听说过的名字命名的—— 而且这些人都是业余天文学家？这是因为除了这些业余天文爱好者，没人在寻找彗星。
247.We need a dedicated observatory that looks for comets.
我们需要有个专人看管的天文台专门寻找彗星。
248.Part two of the solutions — we need to figure out how to blow up an asteroid, or alter its trajectory. Now a year ago, we did an amazing thing.
解决方法之二——我们得找出炸掉一个小行星， 亦或改变其轨道的方法。一年前，我们做了件令人惊叹的事。
249.We sent a probe out to this asteroid belt, called NEAR, Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous.
我们向小行星带发送了一个探测器， 叫做NEAR，也就是近地小行星探测器。
250.And these guys orbited a 30 — or no, about a 22 mile long asteroid called Eris.
让它绕着一个叫做厄里斯的长约22英里的小行星飞行。
251.And then of course, you know, they pulled one of those sneaky NASA things where they had extra batteries, and extra gas aboard and everything,
后来由于有额外的电池，能源等物质， 他们成功地在最后一分钟把NASA里某些“隐晦”的装备拉出，
252.and then at the last minute they landed — when the mission was over they actually landed on the thing.
并着陆—— 任务完成之时他们是真的成功着陆在那个彗星之上了。
253.We have landed a rocket ship on an asteroid. It’s not a big deal.
我们在小行星上着陆过火箭飞船，这件事也算容易。
254.Now the trouble with just sending a bomb out for this thing, is that you don’t have anything to push against in space, ’cause there’s no air.
现在问题就在于如何把炸弹送往行星。 因为在宇宙空间里没有空气，就无法推动运行。
255.A nuclear explosion is just as hot, but we don’t really have anything big enough to melt a 22 mile long asteroid.
核爆炸也许可行， 但我们没有足够大能够炸掉22英里长的小行星的核弹。
256.Or vaporize it, would be more like it.
亦或能够使之蒸发。
257.But we can learn to land on these asteroids that have our name on them and put something like a small ion propulsion motor on it, which would gently, slowly, after a period of time, push it into a different trajectory,
但我们能够着陆在这些由我们命名的行星上， 并予之一个离子推进器， 能够缓慢的在一段时间内将行星改道，
258.which, if we’ve done our math right, would keep it from hitting earth.
如果我们计算无误，就能够阻止它撞向地球。
259.This is just a matter of finding ’em, going there, and doing something about it.
这只是找到它们，到达它们，并对它们作出行动的问题。
260.I know your head is spinning from all this stuff.
我知道你们已经听的头昏脑胀了，
261.Yikes! so many big threats!
哎呀！竟然有这么多的威胁！
262.The thing, I think, to remember, is September 11th.
我想我们要记住的，是9月11号发生的事。
263.We don’t wanna get caught flat-footed again.
我们不想再毫无准备惊慌失措了。
264.We know about this stuff.
我们知道这件事。
265.Science has the power to predict the future in many cases now.
现在科学能够对未来很多事作出预测，
266.Knowledge is power.
知识就是力量。
267.The worst thing we can do is say jeez, I got enough to worry about without worrying about an asteroid.
最糟糕的事是我们只是叹气，说着除了担心小行星外 已有太多事使我们忧心忡忡了。
268.That’s a mistake that could literally cost us our future.
这是个在理论上能够结束我们未来的错误。
269.Thank you.
谢谢。
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
