1.As a researcher, every once in a while, you encounter something a little disconcerting.
作为一个搞研究的人 时不时会遇到一些 令人不安的问题
2.And this is something that changes your understanding of the world around you, and teaches you that you’re very wrong about something that you really believed firmly in.
这些问题可以改变你对周围世界的认识 让你认识到 之前所深信的看法 其实存在很大的谬误
3.And these are unfortunate moments, because you go to sleep that night dumber than when you woke up.
这些都是不幸的时刻 因为你在那晚入睡时 要比在早上起床时来得无知
4.So, that’s really the goal of my talk, is to A, communicate the moment to you, and B, have you leave this session a little dumber than when you entered.
这也正是我本次演讲的目标 第一 相互交流各自的体会 第二 让你们在离开会场时 比你们进来时更加无知一点
5.So, I hope I can really accomplish that.
希望我能达到这两点目标
6.So, this incident that I’m going to describe really began with some diarrhea.
我要讲的这个问题 要从痢疾开始
7.Now, we’ve known for a long time, the cause of diarrhea.
我们对痢疾的病因已经很熟悉
8.That’s why there is a glass of water up there.
所以我放了一杯水的照片在那
9.For us, it’s a problem, the people in this room, for babies, it’s deadly.
对在座的各位来说 这是个麻烦 对婴儿来说 这是致命的
10.They lack nutrients, and diarrhea dehydrates them.
他们缺乏营养 痢疾会导致脱水
11.And so, as a result, there is a lot of death, a lot of death.
因此 会有很多人夭折 很多人夭折
12.In India in 1960, there was a 24 percent child mortality rate, lots of people didn’t make it. Incredibly unfortunate.
在1960年的印度 新生儿的死亡率达到24% 很多还能没能挺过去 实在是很不幸
13.One of the big reasons this happened was because of diarrhea.
很重要的一个原因 就是痢疾
14.Now, there was a big effort to solve this problem.
目前 人类已对痢疾的疗法付出了很大努力
15.And there was actually a big solution.
也出现了很有效的疗法
16.And this solution has been called, by some, “Potentially the most important medical advance this century.”
这种疗法被某些人称为 本世纪最重要的 医学突破
17.Now, the solution turned out to be simple.
疗法其实很简单
18.And what it was was oral rehydration salts.
就是口服补液盐
19.Many of you have probably used this.
很多人用过这种方法
20.It’s brilliant. It’s a way to get sodium and glucose together so that when you add it to water the child is able to absorb it even during situations of diarrhea.
这是个天才般的想法 可以让钠和葡萄糖混合在一起 掺上水之后 婴儿即使在身患痢疾时也能吸收养分
21.Remarkable impact on mortality.
有效的减少了死亡率
22.Massive solution to the problem.
很好的治疗了痢疾
23.Flash forward, 1960, 24 percent child mortality has dropped has dropped to 6.5 percent today.
婴儿死亡率从1960年的24% 下降到如今的6.5%
24.Still a big number, but a big drop.
比例仍较高 但已经降了很多
25.It looks like the technological problem is solved.
看上去技术上的问题已解决
26.But, if you look, even today there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related deaths in India alone.
但直到如今 光是在印度 每年就有40万 痢疾相关的死亡
27.What’s going on here?
这又是怎么回事?
28.Well the easy answer is, we just haven’t gotten those salts to those people.
你可以说 我们没有给他们提供 口服补液盐
29.That’s actually not true.
事实上不是这样
30.If you look in areas where these salts are completely available the price is low or zero, these deaths still continue abated.
在这些地方 口服补液盐完全可以买到 价格很低 甚至是免费的 但死亡还在发生
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31.Maybe there is a biological answer.
也许有生理上的原因
32.Maybe these are the deaths that simple rehydration alone doesn’t solve. That’s not true either.
也许单靠再水合的方法 无法挽救这些生命 但这也不是事实
33.Many of these deaths were completely preventable.
很多死亡是完全可以避免的
34.And this what I want to think of as the disconcerting thing, what I want to call “the last mile” problem.
这就是令我感到不安的问题 我称之为”最后一英里”问题
35.You see, we spent a lot of energy, in many domains.
我们在各个领域消耗了很多的资源
36.Technological, scientific, hard work, creativity, human ingenuity, to crack important social problems with technology solutions.
利用技术 科学手段 通过人类的汗水 灵巧 创造力 用技术手段攻克了许多重大社会问题
37.That’s been the discoveries of the last 2,000 years.
2000年以来都是如此
38.That’s mankind moving forward.
人类因此不断向前进
39.But in this case we cracked it, but a big part of the problem still remains.
尽管攻克了很多难关 但还有很多问题依然存在
40.999 miles went well.
前面的999英里都走得很好
41.The last mile is proving incredibly stubborn.
最好一英里显得异常艰难
42.Now, that’s for oral rehydration therapy.
口服补液疗法就是如此
43.Maybe this is something unique about diarrhea.
也许痢疾只是一个特例
44.Well, it turns out, and this is where things get really disconcerting, it’s not unique to diarrhea.
但事实上 痢疾不是特例 这样问题就变得令人不安了
45.It’s not even unique to poor people in India.
甚至印度的穷人也不是特例
46.Here’s an example from a variety of contexts.
这是从很多文献中找到的一个例子
47.I’ve put up a bunch of examples up here.
我在这列举了很多例子
48.I’ll start with insulin, diabetes medication in the U.S.
我从美国治疗糖尿病的 胰岛素说起
49.Okay, the American population.
对美国人来说
50.On Medicaid if you’re fairly poor you get medicaid, or if you have health insurance, insulin is pretty straightforward.
如果你很穷或者你有医疗保险 就能得到医疗补助 胰岛素很好用
51.You get it, either in pill form or you get it as an injection.
可通过药片或注射使用
52.You have to take it every day to maintain your blood sugar levels.
每天都要服用 以保持血糖水平
53.Massive technological advance, took an incredibly deadly disease, made it solvable.
这是巨大的技术进步 让致命的疾病变得可治愈
54.Adherence rates. How many people are taking their insulin every day?
看看相关的数据 每天有多少人服用胰岛素?
55.About on average, a typical person is taking it 75 percent of the time.
平均每人服用的概率是75%
56.As a result, 25,000 people a year go blind, hundreds of thousands lose limbs, every year, for something that’s solvable.
结果就是 每年有2万5千人失明 数十万人截肢 而这个病是可治愈的
57.Here I have a bunch of other examples, all suffer from the last mile problem.
我还能举很多其他的例子 他们都存在最后一英里的问题
58.It’s not just medicine.
不仅仅在医学上
59.Here is another example from technology.
这是另一个来自于技术革新的例子
60.Agriculture. We think there is a food problem, so we create new seeds.
农业 我们认为 存在食物问题 所以发明了新型的种子
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61.We think there is an income problem, so we create new ways of farming that increase income.
我们认为存在产量的问题 因此创造了 增加产量的新方法
62.Well, look at some old ways, some ways that we’d already cracked.
我们来看看那些已经实现的老方法
63.Intercropping. Intercropping really increases income.
间作 间作确实能增加产量
64.Sometimes in rice we found incredible increases in yield when you mix different varieties of rice side by side.
有时 通过混合不同种类的水稻 可以得到惊人的常量
65.Some people are doing that, many are not. What’s going on?
有些人这么做了 有些人没有 为什么会这样?
66.This is the last mile.
这就是最后一英里
67.The last mile is, everywhere, problematic.
最后一英里的问题 无处不在 难以攻克
68.Alright, what’s the problem?
问题出在哪?
69.The problem is this little three-pound machine that’s behind your eyes and between your ears.
问题就处在这个3磅重的小机器上 它位于你的眼后 两耳之间
70.This machine is really strange, and one of the consequences is that people are weird.
这台机器很奇怪 结果是 人类也很奇怪
71.They do lots of inconsistent things.
做了很多自相矛盾的事
72.(Applause) They do lots of inconsistent things.
(鼓掌) 人做了很多自相矛盾的事
73.And the inconsistencies create, fundamentally, this last mile problem.
这些自相矛盾 从根本上导致了最后一英里问题
74.See, when we were dealing with our biology, bacteria, the genes, the things inside here, the blood, that’s complex, but it’s manageable.
当我们面对生物 细菌 基因 内脏 血液这些的时候 尽管很复杂 但却是可控的
75.When we’re dealing with people like this, the mind is more complex.
当我们面对人的问题的时候 就变得更为复杂了
76.That’s not as manageable. And that’s what we’re struggling with.
事情就不好控制了 这就是我们在挣扎的问题
77.Let me go back to diarrhea for a second.
我们再回到痢疾的问题上
78.Here is a question that was asked in the National Sample Survey, which is a survey asked of many Indian women.
这是全国抽样调查组织 向很多印度女性问的一个问题
79.”Your child has diarrhea.
“如果小孩得了痢疾
80.Should you increase, maintain, or decrease the number of fluids?”
应该增加 保持还是减少液体摄入?”
81.Just so you don’t embarrass yourselves, I’ll give you the right answer.
为了不让你们难堪 我直接告诉你们答案
82.It’s increase.
是增加
83.Now, diarrhea is interesting because it’s been around for thousands of years, ever since humankind really lived side by side enough to have really polluted water.
痢疾很有意思 它已经存在了几千年 自从人类聚居 开始产生废水以来就有了
84.One Roman strategy that was very interesting, was that, and it really gave them a comparitive advantage, they made sure their soldiers didn’t drink
罗马人有个对付痢疾的办法很有意思 这让他们取得了比较优势 他们连轻微浑浊的水
85.even remotely muddied waters.
都不让士兵们饮用
86.Because if some of your troops get diarrhea they’re not that effective on the battlefield.
因为如果有士兵得了立即 就会削弱战斗力
87.So, if you think of Roman comparative advantage part of it was the breast shields, the breast plates, but part of it was drinking the right water.
大家以为罗马军队的优势在于护甲 但其实正确饮水也是优势之一
88.So, here are these women they’ve seen their parents have struggled with diarrhea, they’ve struggled with diarrhea.
所以这些妇女们见过父母 为痢疾所困扰 自己也患过痢疾
89.They’ve seen lots of deaths. How do they answer this question?
还见过很多死亡病例 她们会如何回答呢?
90.In India 35 to 50 percent say “reduce.”
在印度 35%到50%的人回答 “减少”
91.Think about what that means for a second.
想一下这意味着什么
92.35 to 50 percent of women forget oral rehydration therapy, they are increasing they are actually making their child more likely to die through their actions.
35%到50%的妇女 忽略了口服补液疗法 她们在增加… 她们这么做其实是在 增加孩子的死亡率
93.How is that possible?
怎么会这样呢?
94.Well, one possibility — I think that’s how most people respond to this — is to say, “That’s just stupid.”
一种可能是 我想大部分人会这样回答 “真愚蠢”
95.I don’t think that’s stupid.
我觉得这不是愚蠢
96.I think there is something very profoundly right in what these women are doing.
我认为这些妇女在某种程度上做的是对的
97.And that is, you don’t put water into a leaky bucket.
也就是 不把水倒在 漏的水桶里
98.So, think of the mental model that goes behind reducing the intake.
这个思维模型就是减少输入
99.Just doesn’t make sense.
只是听上去不太合理
100.Now, the model is intuitively right.
这个模型本来是正确的
101.It just doesn’t happen to be right about the world.
但是应用到实际当中就发生了错误
102.But it makes a whole lot of sense at some deep level.
但是从深层次上来讲 是有道理的
103.And that, to me, is the fundamental challenge of the last mile.
这对我来说 就是那个最基本的 最后一英里的挑战
104.This first challenge is what I refer to as the persuasion challenge.
第一个挑战我称之为 说服
105.Convincing people to do something, take oral rehydration therapy, intercrop, whatever it might be, is not an act of information.
劝说别人去做某件事 接受口服补液疗法 间作 诸如此类的 不是说是去提供给人信息
106.”Let’s give them the data, and when they have data they’ll do the right thing.”
“我们给他们罗列数据吧 他们看到数据 就会做正确的事”
107.It’s more complex than that.
实际远比这复杂的多
108.And if you want to understand how it’s more complex let me start with something kind of interesting.
为了让你们理解为什么会显得更复杂 我们先来做一个有意思的测验
109.So, I’m going to give you a little math problem.
我会给你们一道简单的数学题
110.And I want you to yell out the answer as fast as possible.
需要你们尽可能快的给出答案
111.A bat and a ball together cost $1.10.
一个球拍和一个球总计1.1美元
112.The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
球拍比球多花1美元
113.How much does the ball cost? Quick.
那么一个球要花多少钱? 要快
114.So, somebody out there says five.
那边有人说5美分
115.A lot of you said 10.
不少人说10美分
116.Let’s think about 10 for a second.
先来考虑下10这个答案
117.If the ball costs 10, the bat costs…
如果球是10美分 球拍要花…
118.this is easy, $1.10.
很简单 1.1美元
119.Yeah. So, together they would cost $1.20.
所以总共要花1.2美元
120.So, here you all are, ostensibly educated people.
你们都明显是受过教育的人
121.Most of you look smart.
很多看起来很聪明
122.The combination of that produces something that is actually, you got this thing wrong.
这几点加起来 反而让你们得出错误的答案
123.How is that possible? Let’s go to something else.
怎么会这样? 再看看其他的
124.I know algebra can be complicated.
我知道代数很复杂
125.So, let’s dial this back. That’s what? 5th grade? 4th grade?
所以让我们回到…5年级? 4年级?
126.Let’s go back to kindergarten. Okay?
我们回到幼儿园 好不好?
127.There is a great show on American television that you have to watch.
美国有个很赞的电视节目不得不看
128.It’s called Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?
叫做”你比小学5年级的聪明吗?”
129.I think we’ve learned the answer to that here.
我想我们刚才已经有了答案
130.Let’s move to kindergarten. Let’s see if we can beat five year olds.
我们回到幼儿园水平 看看能否打败5岁孩子
131.Here is what I’m going to do. I’m going to put objects on the screen.
接下来 我会在屏幕上显示一些物体
132.I just want you to name the color of the object.
我要你们念出这些物体的颜色
133.That’s all it is. Okay?
就这么简单 明白了吗?
134.I want you to do it fast. And say it out loud with me.
你们要说得快 大声的念出来
135.And do it quickly. I’ll make the first one easy for you.
要说得快 第一个会比较简单
136.Ready? Black.
追备好了吗? 黑色
137.Now the next ones I want you to do quickly and say it out loud.
接下去 我要你们又快又大声的说出来
138.Ready? Go.
准备好了吗? 开始
139.Audience: Red. Green.
观众: 红 绿
140.Yellow. Blue. Red.
黄 蓝 红
141.(Laughter) Sendhil Mullainathan: That’s pretty good.
(笑) 森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹: 很好
142.Almost out of kindergarten.
几乎可以幼儿园毕业了
143.What is all this telling us?
这又告诉我们什么呢?
144.You see, what’s going on here, and in the bat and ball problem is that you have some intuitive ways of interacting with the world, some models that you use to understand the world.
刚才的例子以及球拍和球的例子告诉我们 我们通过直觉认识世界 通过某些方式了解世界
145.These models, like the leaky bucket, work well in most situations.
这些方法 像漏桶原理那样 在多数情况下都行得通
146.I suspect most of you, I hope that’s true for the rest of you, actually do pretty well with addition and subtraction in the real world.
我猜你们中的大多数 我希望在座的都是这样 对实际中的加减法都很熟练
147.I found a problem, a specific problem that actually found an error with that.
我发现一个问题 一个特别的问题 造成了这种漏洞
148.Diarrhea, and many last mile problems, are like that.
腹泻和很多最后一英里问题一样
149.They are situations where the mental model doesn’t match the reality.
使那些思维方式 与实际情况不吻合
150.Same thing here, you had an intuitive response to this that was very quick.
刚才也是如此 你们很快的用直觉做出了反应
151.You read blue and you wanted to say blue, even though you knew your task was red.
你们读到蓝 就说蓝色 尽管你们应该说红色
152.Now, I do this stuff because it’s fun.
我做这个实验 是因为这很有趣
153.But it’s more profound than fun.
但这不仅仅在于它是有趣的
154.I’ll give you a good example of how it actually effects persuasion.
关于说服力 我给大家举个很好的例子
155.BMW is a pretty safe car.
宝马是安全性很高的车
156.And they are trying to figure out, “Safety is good.
他们在想 “安全性是卖点
157.I want to advertise safety. How am I going to advertise safety?”
我要宣传这个卖点 应该怎么宣传呢?”
158.”I could give people numbers. We do well on crash tests.”
“可以给出数据 说我们的撞击测试性能很好”
159.But the truth of the matter is, you look at that car, it doesn’t look like a Volvo.
但事实是 当你注视着辆车的时候 他不像沃尔沃
160.And it doesn’t look like a Hummer.
也不想悍马
161.So, what I want you to think about for a few minutes is, how would you convey safety of the BMW? Okay?
我想让你们思考几分钟 如果是你 怎么宣传宝马的安全性? 好吗?
162.So now, while you’re thinking about that let’s move to a second task.
你们边思考边看第二个任务
163.The second task is fuel efficiency. Okay?
第二个任务就是省油
164.Here is another puzzle for all of you.
再给你们出道题
165.One person walks into a car lot, and they are thinking about buying this Toyota Yaris.
有个人走进车场 他想买辆丰田的飞度
166.They are saying, “This is 35 miles per gallon. I’m going to do the environmentally right thing, I’m going to buy the Prius, 50 miles per gallon.”
他说 “这车每加仑能跑35英里 我要环保的 我想买普锐斯 每加仑能跑50英里”
167.Another person walks into the lot.
另一个人走进车场
168.And they are about to buy a Hummer, nine miles per gallon, fully loaded, luxury.
想买悍马 每加仑跑9英里 厚实 奢华
169.And they say, “You know what? Do I need turbo? Do I need this heavyweight car?”
他说道 “我真的需要涡轮增压器吗?需要那么重的车吗?
170.I’m going to do something good for the environment.
我要做对环境有益的事
171.I’m going to take off some of that weight, and I’m going to buy a Hummer that’s 11 miles per gallon.”
我要减掉那部分重量 我要买辆每加仑能跑11英里的悍马”
172.Which one of these people has done more for the environment?
哪个人对环境的贡献更大呢?
173.See, you have a mental model.
在大家的思维方式中
174.50 versus 35, that’s a big move, 11 versus nine? Come on.
50到35是很大的差距 11到9呢? 不会吧
175.Turns out, go home and do the math, the nine to 11 is a bigger change. That person has saved more gallons.
但如果用心计算一下的话 9到11的提升贡献更大 那人能省更多的油
176.Why? Because we don’t care about miles per gallon, we care about gallons per mile.
为什么? 因为我们不在乎每加仑的里程 我们在乎每英里的耗油
177.Think about how powerful that is if you’re trying to encourage fuel efficiency.
想想看 这在鼓励节油方面会有什么影响
178.Miles per gallon is the way we present things.
我们习惯用每加仑的里程来阐述
179.If we want to encourage change of behavior, gallons per mile would have far more effectiveness.
如果想要改变消费者行为 每英里耗油会有效的多
180.Researchers have found these type of anomalies.
研究人员发现了很多相似的情形
181.Okay, back to BMW. What should they do?
再回到宝马 他们该怎么做?
182.The problem BWM faces is this car looks safe.
宝马面临的问题是 这车看上去很安全
183.This car, which is my Mini, doesn’t look that safe.
而这辆车 Mini Cooper 就没那么安全了
184.Here was BMW’s brilliant insight which they embodied into an ad campaign.
宝马把下面这个绝妙的想法融入到广告宣传中
185.They showed a BMW driving down the street.
一辆宝马在街道中行驶
186.There is a truck on the right. Boxes fall out of the truck.
右边有辆火车 车上的箱子掉了下来
187.The car swerves to avoid it, and therefore doesn’t get into an accident.
宝马车迅速躲避 避免了车祸
188.BWM realizes safety, in people’s minds, has two components.
宝马意识到 对消费者而言 安全性有两方面
189.You can be safe because when you’re hit you survive, or you can be safe because you avoid accidents.
撞击时幸免于难可以说是安全的 躲避事故也可以称之为安全
190.Remarkably successful campaign. But notice the power of it.
相当成功的宣传 但请关注其中的深意
191.It harnesses something you already believe.
它顺应了你们已有的观念
192.Now, even if I persuaded you to do something it’s hard sometimes to actually get action as a result.
即使我说服你去做某件事 你最后也未必会付诸行动
193.You all probably intended to wake up I don’t know, 6:30, 7am.
你们可能都想在差不多6点半 或者7点起床
194.This is a battle we all fight every day, along with trying to get to the gym.
这是我们每天面临的战斗 去健身房锻炼也是一样
195.Now, this is an example of that battle, and makes us realize intentions don’t always translate into actions, And so one of the fundamental challenges
这就是和睡眠挣扎的例子 它告诉我们 愿望不应定能付诸行动 所以其中的一个本质性问题就是
196.is how we would actually do that. Okay?
我们怎样才会付诸行动
197.So, let me now talk about the last mile problem.
我现在来谈谈最后一英里的问题
198.So far, I’ve been pretty negative.
到现在为止 我都很消极
199.I’ve been trying to show you the oddities of human behavior.
我一直向你们传递人类行为的丑恶面
200.And I think maybe I’m being too negative.
我在想也许是我太消极了
201.Maybe it’s the diarrhea.
也许痢疾本来就难防
202.Maybe the last mile problem really should be thought of as the last mile opportunity.
也许最后一英里的问题应该称为 最后一英里的机遇
203.Let’s go back to diabetes.
我们再回到糖尿病上
204.This is a typical insulin injection.
这是典型的胰岛素注射剂
205.Now, carrying this thing around is complicated.
带着这些外出挺麻烦的
206.You gotta carry the bottle, you gotta carry the syringe.
既要带着瓶子 有要带注射器
207.It’s also painful.
还很痛
208.Now, you may think to yourself, “Well, if my eyes depended on it you know, I would obviously use it every day.”
你可能会想 “如果我的眼睛靠它了 我当然会坚持每天注射”
209.But the pain, the discomfort, you know, paying attention, remembering to put it in your purse when you go on a long trip, these are the day to day of life, and they do pose problems.
但考虑下这种疼痛 这种不便 长途旅行的时候 还要记着 放在包包里 这些确实为日常生活带来了问题
210.Here is an innovation, a design innovation.
这是一个创新 设计山的创新
211.This is a pen, it’s called an insulin pen, preloaded.
它是一支笔 叫做胰岛素笔针 预载的
212.The needle is particularly sharp.
针头特别尖锐
213.You just gotta carry this thing around.
带着这个外出
214.It’s much easier to use, much less painful.
既方便 有减少了痛苦
215.Anywhere between five and 10 percent increase in adherence, just as a result of this.
多付出5%到10%的努力 就能取得这样的成果
216.That’s what I’m talking about as a last mile opportunity.
这就是我想说的最后一英里的机遇
217.You see, we tend to think the problem is solved when we solve the technology problem.
我们以为解决了技术上的难题 就算是解决了问题
218.But the human innovation, the human problem still remains, and that’s a great frontier that we have left.
但是问题却仍然存在 这就是在技术创新后遇到的问题
219.This isn’t about the biology of people, This is now about the brains, the psychology of people.
现在的问题不在于生理层面 而在于人的意识 人的心理层面
220.And innovation needs to continue all the way through to the last mile.
创新应该有始有终 直到最后一英里
221.Here is another example of this.
这是另一个例子
222.This is from a company called Positive Energy.
这是积极能源公司的资料
223.This is about energy efficiency.
讲的是节能这件事
224.We’re spending a lot of time on fuel cells right now.
我们现在在做很多能量电池的研究
225.What this company does is they send a letter to households that say, “Here is your energy use, here is your neighbor’s energy use, you’re doing well.” Smiley face.
这家公司的所做的就是把信寄到各家各户 告诉他们 “这是你的能源利用状况 这是你邻居的能源使用状况 你做的很好” 加个笑脸
226.”You’re doing worse.” Frown.
“你做的不太好” 加个苦脸
227.And what they find is just this letter, nothing else, has a two to three percent reduction in electricity use.
他们发现单单靠这封信就可以 减少2%到3%的能源使用
228.And you want to think about the social value of that in terms of carbon offsets, reduced electricity, 900 million dollars per year.
从这件事情的社会影响来看 如果计算减排的二氧化碳和节省的电能 每年能省下9亿美元
229.Why? Because for free, this isn’t a new technology, this is a letter, we’re getting a big bang in behavior.
为什么? 因为是免费的 这不是一项新技术 这只是一封信 却对我们的行为产生了惊天动地的影响
230.So, how do we tackle the last mile?
我们如何突破这最后一英里呢?
231.So, I think this tells us there is an opportunity.
我想有很多机会等着我们
232.And I think to tackle it, we need to combine psychology, marketing, art, we’ve seen that.
要想实现突破 我们需要将 心理学 市场营销 艺术综合起来 我们刚才已经看到了
233.But you know what we need to combine it with?
但我们还需要把什么加进来呢?
234.We need to combine this with the scientific method.
我们要把科学方法加进来
235.See what’s really puzzling and frustrating about the last mile, to me, is that the first 999 miles are all about science.
最后一英里之所以让我感到迷惑和沮丧 是因为开始的999英里都是关于科学
236.No one would say, “Hey, I think this medicine works, go ahead and use it.”
没人会说 “我认为这种药没问题 尽管去用吧”
237.We have testing, we go to the lab, we try it again, we have refinement.
我们测试 然后在研究 再测试 然后改进
238.But you know what we do on the last mile?
但看看我们在最后一英里做了什么?
239.”Oh, this is a good idea. People will like this. Let’s put it out there.”
“这是个好主意 大家会喜欢的 拿出去卖吧”
240.The amount of resources we put in are disparate.
我们对两者的重视度是迥异的
241.We put billions of dollars into fuel efficient technologies.
我们在节能技术上花了大把大把的钱
242.How much are we putting into energy behavior change, in a credible, systematic, testing way?
而通过可靠的 系统的测试办法 改变人们的节能行为 又花了多少钱?
243.Now, I think that we’re on the verge of something big.
我认为 有个重大变革正在向我们走来
244.We’re on the verge of a whole new social science.
我们将迎来一个崭新的社会科学
245.It’s a social science that recognizes, much like science recognizes the complexity of the body, biology recognizes the complexity of the body, we’ll recognize
这种社会科学的认识过程 正像科学认识人体的复杂性 生物学认识人体的复杂性那样 我们会认识到
246.the complexity of the human mind.
人类思维方式的复杂性
247.The careful testing, retesting, design.
通过认真的测试 再测试 设计
248.We’re going to open up vistas of understanding, complexities, difficult things.
我们会开启认识复杂事物 解决难题的大门
249.And those vistas will both create new science, and fundamental change in the world as we see it, in the next hundred years.
这扇大门将会在接下去的百年中 促成新科学的诞生 彻底的改变我们所在的世界
250.All right. Thank you very much.
这就是我的演讲 谢谢
251.(Applause) Chris Anderson: Sendhil, thank you so much.
(鼓掌) 森德希尔，感谢你的演讲
252.So, this whole area is so fascinating.
行为经济学是一个相当迷人的领域
253.I mean, it sometimes feels, listening to behavioral economists that they are kind of putting into place academically, what great marketers
我有时感觉 行为经济学 就是把某些杰出的营销员 长久以来就拥有的直觉
254.have sort of intuitively known for a long time.
加以理论化
255.How much is your field talking to great marketers about their insights into human psychology?
你们的这一领域是如何看待杰出营销员 对人类心理学的洞察的?
256.Because they’ve seen it on the ground.
因为他们是在实际中观察的
257.Sendhil Mullainathan: Yeah, we’ve spent a lot of time talking to marketers.
我们和营销员有很多交流
258.And I think 60 percent of it is exactly what you say, there are insights to be gleaned there, 40 percent of it is about what marketing is.
60%的人跟你说的那样 他们有很多观点值得我们什么深思 40%的人想的是营销是什么
259.Marketing is selling an ad to a firm.
营销就是向公司卖广告
260.So, in some sense, a lot of marketing is about convincing a CEO this is a good ad campaign.
某种程度上来说 很多营销就是 说服CEO这是个营销方案的有效性
261.So, there is a little bit of slippage there.
所以这有些蹊跷
262.That’s just a caveat. So, that’s different from actually having an effective ad campaign.
这还只是做到一半 跟真正的有效的营销方案还有一定的距离
263.And one of the new movements in marketing is, how to actually measure effectiveness? Are we effective?
营销里面的一个新的课题就是 如何真正的 评估有效性? 真的是有效的吗?
264.CA: How you take your insights here and actually get them integrated into working business models, on the ground, in Indian villages, for example.
你如何说服他们 将你的观点运用到 实际当中 以印度农村为例
265.SM: So, the scientific method I alluded to is pretty important.
我提到的科学方法很重要
266.We work closely with companies that have operational capacity, or nonprofits that have operational capacity.
我们和那些有实力的公司 以及有实力的非营利性组织紧密合作
267.And then we say, well, you want to get this behavior change.
我们跟他们说 你要是想改变某种行为
268.Let’s come up with a few ideas, test them, see which is working, go back, synthesize, and try to come up with a thing that works, and then we’re able to scale with partners.
就先想出几个方案 进行测试 看看哪些可行 再回头综合一下 想想还有没有其他的点子 再将这些想法和合作商的实力匹配
269.It’s kind of the model that has worked in other contexts.
这根其他方面的工作类似
270.If you have biological problems we try and fix it, see if it works, and then work the scale.
如果你想解决一个生物学问题 先试着解决 如果可行 就扩大规模
271.CA: Alright Sendhil, thanks so much for coming to TED. Thank you.
好的 森德希尔 感谢你来到TED 谢谢
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