1.I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem.
我想从这里开始，休斯顿，我们有个问题。
2.We’re entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we’ve regressed.
我们已经有二十年没有进展了 在人类太空飞行方面。事实上，我们退步了。
3.We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth to go out and continue this very important thing that we as a species have always done.
我们非常有可能失去鼓励年轻人的能力， 让他们走出去，继续做这非常重要的事情 做我们人类已经做了的事情。
4.And that is, instinctively we’ve gone out and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places, and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that’s the reason we survived.
那就是，我们已经本能地走出去 翻过困难之地，去往更加困难的地方， 之后发现，也许会令我们吃惊，这些就是我们生存下来的理由。
5.And I feel very strongly that it’s not good enough for us to have generations of kids that think that it’s OK to look forward to a better version
我强烈的感觉到 这不太好，如果我们世代的后辈 只想着要一个更好
6.of a cell phone with a video in it.
带录像的手机。
7.They need to look forward to exploration, they need to look forward to colonization, they need to look forward to breakthroughs. They need to.
他们要渴望探索，他们要渴望征服， 他们要渴望突破。他们需要这些。
8.We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us and help us survive in the future.
我们要鼓励他们，因为他们将来要领导我们 帮助我们生存。
9.I’m particularly troubled that what NASA’s doing right now with this new Bush doctrine to — for this next decade and a half — oh shoot, I screwed up.
我特别担心，美国国家宇航局现在根据新的布什政府的原则所做的 –因为在未来十五年–哦 天呢，我错了。
10.We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
在这里我们有非常明确的规定，不可以谈政治。
11.(Laughter) What we’re looking forward to is — (Applause) what we’re looking forward to is not only the inspiration of our children,
（笑） 我们所期待的是– （掌声） 我们所期待的 是不止鼓励我们的孩子
12.but the current plan right now is not really even allowing the most creative people in this country — the Boeing’s and Lockheed’s space engineers to go out and take risks and try new stuff.
但我们现行的政策甚至不允许 这个国家最有创造力的–波音航空公司和洛克希德导弹与航天公司的 航天工程师走出去，承担风险，尝试新装置。
13.We’re going to go back to the moon — 50 years later — and we’re going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new.
我们将要回到月球–50年以后– 我们正准备仔细地计划这件事情，学习任何新知识。
14.I’m really troubled by that. But anyway that’s — the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though, is that right back to where we inspire people
我因此非常担心。但无论如何，那是– 我今天想和你们分享的事情的基础，尽管如此 就回到了我们要鼓励人们
15.who will be our great leaders later.
鼓励日后会成为我们伟大领导的人们。
16.That’s the theme of my next 15 minutes here.
那是我在这里接下来15分钟的主题。
17.And I think that the inspiration begins when you’re very young: three-year-olds, up to 12, 14-year-olds.
我认为在你们小的时候就开始被鼓励： 从三岁的婴儿直到12，14岁的小孩。
18.What we — what they look at is the most important thing.
我们–最重要的事情是他们看到了什么。
19.Let’s take a snapshot at aviation.
让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。
20.And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened.
曾有四年短暂的美好时期 那时发生了许多奇迹。
21.It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, “Ooh, hey I can do that.” There’s only a few people that have flown
那段时期开始于1908年，当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行，每个人都说， “哦，嘿！我能做这个。”只有极少的人曾飞过
22.in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes, thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection.
在1908年初。四年里，39个国家有了上百架飞机， 上千名飞行员。飞机通过自然选择被发明了出来。
23.Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today, but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.
现在你可以说聪明的设计设计了我们今天的飞机， 但没有聪明的设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
24.There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried, and when they crash and kill the pilot, don’t try that again.
可能至少有3000种不同的尝试， 如果飞行器坠毁，飞行员身亡，就不再尝试此种飞行器。
25.The ones that flew and landed OK because there was no trained pilots who had good flying qualities by definition.
能够飞行和着陆的就是好的， 因为没有训练有素的飞行员 没有真正有好的飞行素质之人。
26.So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts, in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts of the airplanes that we fly today. And that’s why they’re so safe,
所以我们，通过做一大堆尝试，几千次的尝试， 在那四年里，我们发明了 我们今天飞行所用的飞机。这就是为什么我们这么安全，
27.as we gave it a lot of chance to find what’s good.
因为我们给了自己很多机会去发现什么是好的。
28.That has not happened at all in space flying.
在宇宙飞行领域，我们没有给自己一点儿机会。
29.There’s only been two concepts tried — two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
只尝试了两个想法 — 美国尝试了两个，俄罗斯尝试了一个。
30.Well, who was inspired during that time period?
那么，在这段时期，谁被鼓舞了？
31.Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.
《航空周刊》让我列一个表，列出我认为 这一百年的航空事业的推动者。
32.And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.
我把他们写了出来，之后发现他们每一个人 在航天事业的奇妙复兴之时都是小孩子。
33.Well, what happened when I was a little kid was — some pretty heavy stuff too.
那么，当我小的时候发生了什么– 也是非常重大的事件。
34.The jet age started, the missile age started. Von Braun was on there showing how to go to Mars — and this was before Sputnik.
喷气式飞机时代开始了，导弹时代开始了。冯 布劳恩在那里 展示如何登上火星 — 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。
35.And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting than it is now. We thought there’d be animals there, we knew there were plants there, the colors change, right?
那时火星是一个非常令人感兴趣的地方 比现在有趣得多。我们曾以为那里有动物存在， 我们知道那里有植物，有色彩变幻，不是吗？
36.But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they’ve sent these robots and they’ve landed it only in the deserts.
但是，你知道，美国国家宇航局搞砸了这事情，因为他们派遣了这些机器人 而他们只着陆在了沙漠里。
37.(Laughter) If you look at what happened — this little black line is as fast as man ever flew, and the red line is a top of the line military fighters
（笑） 如果你看一看发生了什么 — 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快， 这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员
38.and the blue line is commercial air transport.
蓝色代表商业飞机运输。
39.You notice here’s a big jump. When I was a little kid — and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage to go out and try something that other people weren’t having the courage to try.
你注意这里有一个大的跳跃。当我还是一个小孩时– 我认为曾有些事给予我勇气 走出去，尝试其他人没勇气去做的事。
40.Well, what did I do when I was a kid?
那么，我小时候做了什么？
41.I didn’t do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing.
我那时没有玩车，交女朋友，没有跳舞。
42.And, well, we didn’t have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes.
并且，那时我也没有吸毒。我做了些比赛用的飞机模型。
43.I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force.
越战时，我花了七年时间 为空军做飞机飞行测试。
44.And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes that people could build in their garages.
后来，我涉猎飞机制造，并从中的到甚多乐趣 那些飞机是人们可以在自家车库里制造的。
45.And some 3,000 of these are flying. Of course, one of them is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in ’82, which is my company now.
这些里面有约有3000架正在飞行。当然，它们中的一架 是可以环游世界的航行者号（Voyager）。我在1982年建立了另一家公司， 就是我现在的公司。
46.And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982.
从1982年起，我们公司每年研发不只一种飞机，
47.And there’s a lot of them that I actually can’t show you on this chart.
有许多飞机我无法在这张图上介绍给大家。
48.The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed only a dozen years after the first operational jet.
最令人印象深刻的飞机，我相信，是那架 在第一架喷气式飞机制造出后，仅过了十二年就设计出的飞机。
49.Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service.
它一直在飞行，直到锈迹斑斑才不再服役。
50.We retreated in ’98 back to something that was developed in ’56. What?
我们1998年的研发水平倒退至1956年。什么？
51.The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe, was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a — you know, it landed on the moon, take off of the moon, didn’t need any maintenance guys —
史上最震撼人心的宇宙飞船，我相信， 是格鲁曼公司（Grumman）所做的登月艇。它是一艘–你知道，它在月球着陆， 从月球起飞，无需人员维护–
52.that’s kind of cool.
那有点儿酷。
53.We’ve lost that capability. We abandoned it in ’72.
我们已经丧失了能力。我们在1972年放弃了它。
54.This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961.
这架飞船在前苏联宇航员加加林（Gagarin）1961年首次宇宙飞行的三年后被设计出来。
55.Three years, and we can’t do that now.
三年，而我们现在做不到了。
56.Crazy. Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity, they die out when they’re replaced by something else.
疯狂。简短地谈一下发明创造的周期，周期发展时 会衍生许多活动，当这些活动被其他活动取代，此周期就灭亡了。
57.These things tend to happen every 25 years.
这样的周期每25年出现一次。
58.40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing — by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel
持续40年的时间，有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点 放至不同的科技。这有趣的事情– 顺便一提，这里的速度，不好意思，高速旅行
59.is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
60.These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
61.Here’s the biggie, and that is, you don’t have innovation cycles if the government develops and the government uses it.
这是件大事，那就是，你没有发明创造周期 如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
62.You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net.
你知道，一个好的例子，当然就是DARPA网。
63.Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
电脑首先应用于炮兵部队，然后是美国国税局（IRS）。
64.But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity, all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it.
但当我们得到它时，现在你拥有所有活动的级别， 所有由它而来的利益。私营部门不得不这么做。
65.Keep that in mind. I put down innovation — I’ve looked for innovation cycles in space, and I found none.
记住它。我提出发明创新– 我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期，但我什么也没发现。
66.The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space, and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned space flights in the world; the very first year.
在最初的那一年，从加加林和 和几周后阿兰 谢巴德进入太空开始，世界上有五次人造 飞船航行；在最初的那一年。
67.In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed.
2003年，美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。
68.There were only three or four flights in 2003.
2003年只有三或四次飞行。
69.In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave
2004年，只有两次飞行：两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行 至国际空间站。而我不得不在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次
70.with my little group of a couple dozen people in order to get to a total of five, which was the number the same year back in 1961.
和我的两队人马一起 为了达到5次飞行的总数， 这是1961年的数字。
71.There is no growth. There’s no activity. There’s no nothing.
没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
72.This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne.
这张照片取自一号太空飞船。
73.This is a picture here taken from orbit.
这张照片取自轨道。
74.Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
我们的目标是拍下这些照片，这样大家就能看到它，真正地喜欢它。
75.We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough — at least as safe as the early airlines — so that can be done.
我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片，非常安全地做这件事– 至少像早期的航线一样安全–所以可以做。
76.And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage to go out and try that as a small company.
我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气 尝试飞到太空，我们是个小公司。
77.Well, first of all, what’s going to happen next?
那么，首先，接下来会发生什么？
78.The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.
第一产业将会数量巨大，参与者众多。
79.There’s another one announced just last week.
上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。
80.And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital is, there is not solutions for adequate safety to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this —
这次飞行将会是亚轨道。亚轨道的原因 是，没有保证充分安全的方法 可以带领大众飞至轨道。一些国家的政府正在这样做–
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