1.I’ll just start talking about the 17th century.
（今天）我想先从十七世纪谈起，
2.I hope nobody finds that offensive.
希望没人会觉得没有意思。
3.I — you know, when I — after I had invented PCR, I kind of needed a change.
我 — 你们知道，当我 — 在我发明了 PCR 之后， 我希望生活有点变化。
4.And I moved down to La Jolla and learned how to surf.
所以我就搬到了 La Jolla，开始学冲浪。
5.And I started living down there on the beach for a long time.
我在那里的海滩上住了很久。
6.And when surfers are out waiting for waves, you probably wonder, if you’ve never been out there, what are they doing?
当冲浪爱好者们在海边 等浪来的时候 要是你从没去过那里你可能会好奇，他们都怎么消磨时间呢？
7.You know, sometimes there’s a 10-, 15-minute break out there when you’re waiting for a wave to come in.
要知道，常常要等十分钟到十五分钟 海浪才会来。
8.They usually talk about the 17th century.
他们常常谈起十七世纪（开玩笑地说）。
9.You know, they get a real bad rap in the world.
我们知道，这些冲浪的人不太招人待见，
10.People think they’re sort of lowbrows.
大家都觉得他们是粗人（其实不然）。
11.One day, somebody suggested I read this book.
有一天有个人推荐我读一本书，
12.It was called — it was called “The Air Pump,”
叫做 — 这本书叫做「空气泵的故事」，
13.or something like “The Leviathan and The Air Pump.”
或者是类似「利韦亚坦和空气泵」这样的一个名字。
14.It was a real weird book about the 17th century.
这本怪怪的书讲的是十七世纪（人们怎么从事科研）的故事。
15.And I realized, the roots of the way I sort of thought was just the only natural way to think about things.
我才发觉，我脑海里的 好像是理所当然的思维方式 的根源
16.That — you know, I was born thinking about things that way, and I had always been like a little scientist guy.
其实（是在十七世纪产生的）— 你要知道，我生来就是这么想事情的， 我一直就是一个小小科学家。
17.And when I went to find out something, I used scientific methods. I wasn’t real surprised, you know, when they first told me how —
当我想研究什么的时候， 我就自己会用科学的方法去研究。我一点都没有恍然大悟的感觉， 当别人第一次告诉我说应该怎么 —
18.how you were supposed to do science, because I’d already been doing it for fun and whatever.
应该怎么搞科研的时候， 因为我一直以来就是这么作的，用正确的科研方法才好玩。
19.But it didn’t — it never occurred to me that it had to be invented and that it had been invented only 350 years ago.
但是其实这种正确的科研方法 — 我可从没想到 有人还得把它发明出来呢。 而且这个发明还是仅仅 三百五十年前的事儿。
20.You know, it was — like it happened in England, and Germany, and Italy sort of all at the same time.
要知道，这个发明可是 — 就像是它一下子在英国，德国和意大利 都一下子被发明出来了。
21.And the story of that, I thought, was really fascinating.
这背后的故事 我认为，特别有意思。
22.So I’m going to talk a little bit about that, and what exactly is it that scientists are supposed to do.
我这儿就给你们稍微讲讲科研方法是怎么被「发明」出来的， 然后再讲讲科学工作者到底应该怎么做科研。
23.And it’s, it’s a kind of — You know, Charles I got beheaded somewhere early in the 17th century.
这个故事，有点 — 怎么说呢，查理一世上了断头台。 这是大概十七世纪早期的时候。
24.And the English set up Cromwell and a whole bunch of Republicans or whatever, and not the kind of Republicans we had.
之后克伦威尔在英国掌权， 同时掌权的还有一帮共和党人。 当然了，和我们现在有的共和党人士大不相同。（笑声）
25.They changed the government, and it didn’t work.
他们试图改革政府，没有成功，
26.And Charles II, the son, was finally put back on the throne of England.
后来 查理二世，查理一世的儿子， 重新上台在英国掌权。
27.He was really nervous, because his dad had been, you know, beheaded for being the King of England And he was nervous about the fact
他当然是很坐如针毡的，因为他父亲查理一世 你知道，才被砍了头，就因为他是英国国王。 所以查理二世对在酒吧之类的地方
28.that conversations that got going in, like, bars and stuff would turn to — this is kind of — it’s hard to believe, but people in the 17th century in England
进行的那些关于哲学啦思想啦之类的讨论 很是紧张，生怕这些谈话 会促成（新的革命运动）— 这种事情 — 说起来有点不可思议， 但是十七世纪英国的群众
29.were starting to talk about, you know, philosophy and stuff in bars.
已经开始谈论，你知道， 在酒吧之类的地方开展哲学和科学思想的讨论。
30.They didn’t have TV screens, and they didn’t have any football games to watch.
那时他们也没有电视大屏幕， 也看不成橄榄球赛，
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31.And they would get really pissy, and all of a sudden people would spill out into the street and fight about issues like whether or not
所以就是辩论。辩论就会有意见分歧， 有分歧就会有争斗。时不时地人们就跳到街上去 为了不同意见打架。
32.it was okay if Robert Boyle made a device called the vacuum pump.
比如为了 Robert Boyle 应不应该发明 一个仪器叫真空泵之类的。
33.Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II, He was a Christian guy during the weekends, but during the week he was a scientist.
那时吧，Boyle 是查理二世的朋友， 他周末是个挺虔诚的天主教徒， 平时就偷偷搞科研。
34.(Laughter) Which was — back then it was sort of, you know, well, you know — if you made this thing — he made this little device,
（笑声） 那时的情况吧 — 回头看看 你知道 —（挺不容易的） 如果你发明了这样的新鲜东西（人们还反对）— 就像他发明了这个小小的真空泵，
35.like kind of like a bicycle pump in reverse that could suck all the air out of — you know what a bell jar is? One of these things,
其实就像是个自行车打气筒， 只不过是反过来工作的，把空气都抽出去 — 大家听说过钟形玻璃罩吧？钟形玻璃罩是这样的一个东西，
36.you pick it up, put it down, and it’s got a seal, and you can see inside of it, so you can see what’s going on inside this thing.
你把它拿起来，压回去，就密封住了， 但你还是可以看穿里面， 这样就可以观察里面发生了什么。
37.But what he was trying to do was to pump all the air out of there, and see what would happen inside there.
他所做的实验就是把空气从这样的一个钟形玻璃罩里全抽出来， 然后看看里面发生了什么。
38.I mean, the first — I think one of the first experiments he did was he put a bird in there.
我想，他做的第一个实验 是他在里面扣了一只鸟。
39.And people in the 17th century, they didn’t really understand the same way we do about you know, this stuff is a bunch of different kinds of molecules,
那时十七世纪的人， 他们不像我们， 知道空气是什么 空气不过是一堆不同的分子，
40.and we breathe it in for a purpose and all that.
我们可以呼吸进去，在体内产生作用。
41.I mean, fish don’t know much about water, and people didn’t know much about air.
就好像，鱼并不怎么知道水到底是什么， 那时的人也没有空气这个概念。
42.But both started exploring it.
但是他们刚开始研究了。
43.One thing, he put a bird in there, and he pumped all the air out, and the bird died. So he said, hmm …
第一，Boyle 放一只鸟进去，把空气全抽出来， 鸟当然就死了。所以他就想： “嗯 …”
44.He said — he called what he’d done as making — they didn’t call it a vacuum pump at the time.
他想 — 他管这个他做的装置叫 — 那时候还没有真空泵这一说，
45.Now you call it a vacuum pump; he called it a vacuum.
现在我们称这个东西真空泵，那时候他就称其为“真空”。
46.Right? And immediately, he got into trouble with the local clergy who said, you can’t make a vacuum.
好吧？结果马上 他就倒了霉，当地的神职人员 说，你不能做这个“真空”。
47.Ah, uh — (Laughter) Aristotle said that nature abhors one.
这真是 — （笑声） 亚里士多德说过，大自然不喜欢“真空”，
48.I think it was a poor translation, probably, but people relied on authorities like that.
我认为这是个误译，很有可能， 但是人们宁愿盲信权威。
49.And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.
这样，Boyle 就说，坏了，
50.I make them all the time.
我整天做这些。
51.I mean, whatever that is that kills the bird — and I’m calling it a vacuum.
我是说，不管是什么弄死了那只鸟 — 我就管它叫真空。
52.And the religious people said that if God wanted you to make — I mean, God is everywhere, that was one of their rules, is God is everywhere.
宗教人士就说， 如果上帝想让你做真空 — 要知道，（这些人认为）上帝无处不在， 这是他们的一个原则，上帝无处不在。
53.And a vacuum — there’s nothing in a vacuum, so you’ve — God couldn’t be in there.
而真空 — 他们认为真空中什么也没有， 所以你就（没有上帝了）— 上帝就不可能存在在真空里了。
54.So therefore the church said that you can’t make a vacuum, you know.
所以就这样教堂就说你不许作真空出来，你知道。
55.And Boyle said, bullshit.
于是 Boyle 就说，胡说，
56.I mean, you want to call it Godless, you know, you call it Godless.
我是说，你要是想说真空是没有上帝的， 你知道，要是你说真空是没有上帝的，（那也行，）
57.But that’s not my job. I’m not into that.
但是这不管我的事。我对这个不感兴趣。
58.I do that on the weekend. And like — what I’m trying to do is figure out what happens when you suck everything out of a compartment.
我只在周末考虑上帝的事情，像这种事 — 我想做的只是弄明白这是怎么回事， 当你把一个容器里的东西都吸出来的时候发生了什么。
59.And he did all these cute little experiments.
所以他做了一些有趣的小实验。
60.Like he did one with — he had a little wheel, like a fan, that was sort of loosely attached, so it could spin by itself.
比如他做了一个实验，用一个小风车， 就像是一个小风扇， 松松地挂着，这样它就能够自己转。
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61.He had another fan opposed to it that he had like a — I mean, the way I would have done this would be, like, a rubber band, and, you know, around a tinker toy kind of fan.
他还在对面放了另一个风扇， 这样他就有 — 我是说，要是我的话我会用个皮筋把它们连起来， 你知道，就像一个风扇小玩具。
62.I know exactly how he did it; I’ve seen the drawings.
我其实知道他是怎么做的，我见过他画的图。
63.It’s two fans, one which he could turn from outside after he got the vacuum established, and he discovered that if he pulled all the air out of it,
两个风扇，其中一个风扇，在他抽出真空之后， 他可以在真空器外面启动， 这样他发现如果他把所有的空气都抽出来，
64.the one fan would no longer turn the other one, right?
一个风扇就不能带动另一个了。对吧？
65.Something was missing, you know. I mean, these are — it’s kind of weird to think that someone had to do an experiment to show that,
这就说明有什么东西被抽走了，要知道，我是说，这些事 — 想想有人需要做这些实验来证明空气的存在是有点怪怪的，
66.but that was what was going on at the time.
但是当时的确是这种情况。
67.And like, there was big arguments about it in the — you know, the gin houses and in the coffee shops and stuff.
同时，当时还会有这些大争论，关于 — 你要知道，在酒吧和咖啡馆之类的地方。
68.And Charles started not liking that.
后来查理二世， 他开始不喜欢这些讨论了。
69.Charles II was kind of saying, you know, you should keep that — let’s make a place where you can do this stuff where people don’t get so — you know,
查理二世就说，你知道，Boyle，你应该（把这些实验）保密 — 我们应该找个地方，一个地方你可以做实验， 但是外人不会变得 — 你知道，
70.We don’t want the — we don’t want to get the people mad at me again. And so — because when they started talking about religion and science and stuff like that,
我们不想 — 我们不应该惹别人再不高兴了。同时 — 因为他们开始讨论宗教啦， 科学啦这些东西，
71.that’s when it had sort of gotten his father in trouble.
这些从前给他爸爸惹上麻烦了。
72.And so, Charles said, I’m going to put up the money give you guys a building, come here and you can meet in the building, but just don’t talk about religion in there.
所以 查理二世提出，他会拿一笔钱出来， 给他们个地方， 他们可以去那里集会， 条件是别说宗教的坏话。
73.And that was fine with Boyle.
Boyle 也同意了。
74.He said, OK, we’re going to start having these meetings.
Boyle 说，好吧，我们会开始集会，
75.And anybody who wants to do science is — this is about the time that Isaac Newton was starting to whip out a lot of really interesting things.
任何想搞科研的人（都可以去）— 要知道这是正当牛顿开始 发表很多很有趣的研究结论的时期，
76.And there was all kind of people that would come to the Royal Society, they called it. You had to be dressed up pretty well.
有很多不同的背景的人都想加入这个「皇家社团」。 他们这么叫它。你得穿得很正式。
77.It wasn’t like a TED conference.
那时不像现在 TED，
78.The was the only criteria, was that you be — you looked like a gentleman, and they’d let anybody could come.
那时唯一的标准，就是你得 — 你只要看起来像个绅士，他们就让任何人进来。
79.You didn’t have to be a member then.
你不用成为会员什么的。
80.And so, they would come in and you would do — Anybody that was going to show an experiment, which was kind of a new word at the time,
而且，来的人都要 — 每个进来的人都得展示一个科学实验， 科学实验当时还是个新名词，
81.demonstrate some principle, they had to do it on stage, where everybody could see it.
得说明一些原理性的东西。 人们得上一个讲台，大家都看得见的，
82.So they were — the really important part of this was, you were not supposed to talk about final causes, for instance.
他们就 — 最重要的一点就在这里， 你是不能说这些实验要用来干什么的， 就像实验的用处什么的。
83.And God was out of the picture.
同时也不能谈上帝。
84.The actual nature of reality was not at issue.
不能谈到底这个自然的真相是什么。
85.You’re not supposed to talk about the absolute nature of anything.
你不许谈任何有关绝对的自然原理之类的事情。
86.You were not supposed to talk about anything that you couldn’t demonstrate.
你不许作任何 你无法用实验证明的结论。
87.So if somebody could see it, you could say, here’s how the machine works, here’s what we do, and then here’s what happens.
所以如果有人看，你可以说，看这个机器是怎么工作的， 如果我们这么做，这个现象就发生了，
88.And seeing what happens, it was OK to generalize, and say, I’m sure that this will happen anytime we make one of these things.
然后人们就看得见这个现象发生了。 归纳总结是允许的。 你也可以说，我保证任何一次我做这样的事情， 这个现象都会发生。
89.And so you can start making up some rules.
接下来你就可以总结一些既定规则。
90.You say, anytime you have a vacuum state, you will discover that one wheel will not turn another one, if the only connection between them
你可以说，任何时候我们有真空， 一个风车都不能带动另一个转起来。 如果没有别的东西把它们连起来，
91.is whatever was there before the vacuum. That kind of thing.
只是靠在抽真空之前的东西（空气）的话。这样的结论（你可以下）。
92.Candles can’t burn in a vacuum, therefore, probably sparklers wouldn’t either.
蜡烛在真空中不能燃烧， 所以，很可能也没有电火花。
93.It’s not clear; actually sparklers will, but they didn’t know that; they didn’t have sparklers. But, they — (Laughter) — you can make up rules, but they have to relate
这个当时并不清楚。其实是电火花是点的着的， 但是当时他们不知道电火花。 他们当时还没有所谓电火花。但是他们 — （笑声） 他们可以推广这些原则，但是他们必须
94.only to the things that you’ve been able to demonstrate.
局限在那些已经被实验科学证明的事情上。
95.And most the demonstrations had to do with visuals.
而且绝大多数的科学实验都得是看得见的，
96.Like if you do an experiment on stage, and nobody can see it, they can just hear it, they would probably think you were freaky.
就好像如果你在讲台上做个实验， 人们看不到（发生的现象），他们只能听得见，他们会觉得你很反常。
97.I mean, reality is what you can see.
我的意思是，事实是你能看得见的东西。
98.That wasn’t an explicit rule in the meeting, but I’m sure that was part of it, you know. If people hear voices, and they can’t see and associate it with somebody,
这倒不是在集会上唯一的原则， 但是我相信这是其中一个。你知道，如果人们只能听见人说话， 但他们看不见人影，不能建立起声音和人之间的联系
99.that person’s probably not there.
那么那个人就不存在。
100.But the general idea that you could only — you could only really talk about things in that place that had some kind of experimental basis.
总的来说就是你只可以 — 你只可以谈当时存在的东西 有实验根据的东西。
101.It didn’t matter what Thomas Hobbes, who was a local philosopher, said about it, you know, because you weren’t going to talking final causes.
不管 Thomas Hobbes 怎么评论的， 他是个当地的哲学家， 你知道， 因为你是不会谈论这些原理的用处的。
102.What’s happening here, in the middle of the 17th century, was that what became my field — science, experimental science — was pulling itself away,
在十七世纪的中期， 发生的这些事， 就是后来变成我的领域的东西 — 科学，实验科学 — 开始发展了。
103.and it was in a physical way, because we’re going to do it in this room over here, but it was also what — it was an amazing thing that happened.
而且这是现实发生的事，因为人们就在那个房间里确实做了这些实验。 这是很 — 这真的是很神奇的事情。
104.Science had been all interlocked with theology, and philosophy, and — and — and mathematics, which is really not science.
科学开始和很多东西联系起来， 像是神学，哲学， 还有 — 还有数学。 数学其实不是实验科学。
105.But experimental science has been tied up with all those things.
但是实验科学开始和这些学科联系起来，
106.And the mathematics part and the experimental science part was pulling away from philosophy.
数学这部分 和实验课学这部分 开始和哲学分离。
107.And — things — we never looked back.
于是 — 事情变得 — 我们再没回到原点。
108.It’s been so cool since then.
从那以后搞科学研究就并不是个问题了。
109.I mean, it just — it just — untangled a thing that was really impeding technology from being developed.
我是说，它就 — 它就 — 不再和那些 阻碍科技发展的事情连在一起了。
110.And, I mean, everybody in this room — now, this is 350 short years ago.
我是说，这房间里的每个人 — 短短三百五十年前，
111.Remember, that’s a short time.
记住，（和人类的历史相比）仅仅这么短的时间，
112.It was 300,000, probably, years ago that most of us, the ancestors of most of us in this room came up out of Africa and turned to the left.
现代人类的历史有三十万年，差不多吧， 这里绝大多数人的祖先是 从非洲大陆来的，向西方迁移，来到了美洲。
113.You know, the ones that turned to the right, there are some of those in the Japanese translation.
那些向东方迁移的人，今天 就坐在日文翻译中（成为亚洲人）。
114.But that happened very — a long time ago compared to 350 short years ago.
但是这是很久很久以前的事情。 和三百五十年的短短时间相比， 人类历史是很长的。
115.But in that 350 years, the place has just undergone a lot of changes.
但是仅在这三百五十年间， 我们生活的地方发生了很大的变化。
116.In fact, everybody in this room probably, especially if you picked up your bag — some of you, I know, didn’t pick up your bags — but if you picked up your bag, everybody in this room
事实上，很可能每个这屋子里的人身上都有， 特别是如果你领到了TED发给你的“锦囊”的话 — 有些人，我知道，没有去领取TED的“锦囊” — 但是如果你领到了，这屋里的每个人
117.has got in their pocket, or back in their room, something that 350 years ago, kings would have gone to war to have.
口袋里都有，或者在你们休息的房间里， 都拥有一些东西是 在三百五十年前 那些国王们不惜发起战争来拥有的。
118.I mean, if you can think how important — If you have a GPS system and there are no satellites, it’s not going to be much use. But, like —
我是指，如果你想想这些东西有多重要 — 如果你有个卫星导航系统，当然没有卫星， 那就没什么用了，但是，如果 —
119.but, you know, if somebody had a GPS system in the 17th century some king would have gotten together an army and gone to get it, you know. If that person —
你知道，如果那时有人有个卫星导航系统， 在十七世纪， 有些国王是真的会召集起来军队 来抢的。你知道，如果这个人 —
120.Audience: For the teddy bear? The teddy bear?
（观众发问：“如果我有个玩具熊会怎么样？玩具熊？”）
121.Kay Mullis: They might have done it for the teddy bear, yeah.
(Kary Mullis回答：）那他们可能也会吧。
122.But — all of us own stuff.
但是 — 为了我们有的这些高科技的东西他们会的。
123.I mean, individuals own things that kings would have definitely gone to war to get.
我指的是你们每个人都有的东西。 那些国王绝对会发动战争来抢。
124.And this is just 350 years.
而这个差距仅仅是三百五十年来的发展。
125.Not a whole lot of people doing this stuff.
这还不是说有很多人搞科研。
126.You know, the important people — you can almost read about their lives, about all the really important people that made advances, you know.
要知道，只有很重要的人 — 你差不多可以查得到每个人的生命历程， 追星一样追随这些很重要的，有极大贡献的人们的故事。
127.And, I mean — this kind of stuff, you know, all this stuff came from that separation of this little sort of thing that we do — now I, when I was a boy
所以我说 — 这些科学研究，你知道，科学研究 从这些很不搭干的事情上发展而来， 我们做的这些小实验（都是很有意义的）— 当我还是个小男孩，
128.was born sort of with this idea that if you want to know something — you know, maybe it’s because my old man was gone a lot, and my mother didn’t really know much science,
我生来就有这个想法， 如果你想知道什么事（你就要自己做实验）— 要知道，我爸爸常不在家， 我妈妈也不懂什么科学，
129.but I thought if you want to know something about stuff, you do it — you make an experiment, you know.
但是我就懂得如果你想知道些什么， 你就得动手 — 得做实验，你知道。
130.You get — you get, like — I just had a natural feeling for science and setting up experiments. I thought that was the way everybody had always thought.
你就有 — 你就有 — 我就是有这种自然而然的科学思想， 知道怎么做实验。我以为人人都是这么想的，
131.I thought that anybody with any brains will do it that way.
我真的以为每个有脑袋的人都会这么做的。
132.It isn’t true. I mean, there’s a lot of people — You know, I was one of those scientists that was — got into trouble the other night at dinner
当然不是。我是说，有很多人（不是这样）— 你要知道，我是一个这样的科学家 — 前几天晚饭的时候我还遇到麻烦，
133.because of the post-modernism thing.
因为我讨论了关于后现代派的事情。
134.And I didn’t mean, you know — where is that lady?
我其实不是要招麻烦（我只是喜欢探讨）— 那个和我争论的女士在哪里？
135.Audience: Here.
（观众说：“在这儿。”）
136.(Laughter) KM: I mean, I didn’t really think of that as an argument so much as just a lively discussion.
（笑声） （Kary Mullis说）我是说，我并不觉得这是个争论， 只是个很活泼的讨论。
137.I didn’t take it personally, but — I just — I had — I naively had thought, until this surfing experience started me into the 17th century,
我并不放个人感情进去，但是（别人不然） — 我只是 — 我以为 — 我很天真地认为（大家都是这样的）， 知道冲浪的时候我听说了有关十七世纪的故事，
138.I’d thought that’s just the way people thought, and everybody did, and they recognized reality by what they could see or touch or feel or hear.
我以前一直以为人们一直都是有科学思想的， 人人都有，他们认识世界， 是通过他们能看见的东西，能触摸的东西，或者感觉到的东西，或者听到的东西。
139.At any rate, when I was a boy — I, like — for instance, I had this — I got this little book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma — This is about the time that George Dyson’s dad
在我是个小男孩时，无时无刻 — 我 — 比如，有这个事 — 我从俄克拉何马州的福特锡尔镇那里得到了一本手册 — 是讲在 George Dyson 的爸爸（Freeman Dyson， 理论物理学家和数学家）
140.was starting to blow nuclear — thinking about blowing up nuclear rockets and stuff.
如何开始核试验的 — 他当时在研究核火箭。
141.I was thinking about making my own little rockets.
于是我也想自己做个火箭。
142.And I knew that frogs — little frogs — had aspirations of space travel, just like people. And I — (Laughter) I was looking for a —
而且我想到了用青蛙 — 小青蛙 — 也应该有太空历险的远大志向， 像我一样。所以我 — （笑声） 我就开始找一个 —
143.a propulsion system that would like, make a rocket, like, maybe about four feet high go up a couple of miles.
推动器 一个我能用来做火箭的， 差不多四英尺高，能冲几英里高的火箭。
144.And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.
我是说，这就是我的远大志向。
145.I wanted it to go out of sight and then I wanted this little parachute to come back with the frog in it.
我想让火箭冲上云霄，然后乘一个小降落伞回来 带着青蛙回来。
146.And — I — I — I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma, where there’s a missile base.
而我 — 我 — 我读了这个从俄克拉何马州福特锡尔镇那里来的书， 那里有个导弹基地，
147.They send it out for amateur rocketeers, and it said in there do not ever heat a mixture of potassium perchlorate and sugar.
他们会把这些小手册给那些业余火箭爱好者， 而且， 书里还写着， 永远不要加热高氯酸钾和糖的混合物。
148.(Laughter) You know, that’s what you call a lead.
（笑声） 你要知道， 这就是通常我们说的启发。
149.(Laughter) You sort of — now you say, well, let’s see if I can get hold of some potassium chlorate and sugar, perchlorate and sugar,
（笑声） （像这种情况）你就会 — 你就会说，好吧，让我试试看能不能 搞到一些氯化钾和糖，高氯化钾和糖，
150.and heat it; it would be interesting to see what it is they don’t want me to do, and what it is going to –and how is it going to work.
然后一加热，看看到底他们不想让我做的是什么，一定有趣。 而且看看会发生什么 — 到底是怎么发生的。
151.And we didn’t have — like, my mother presided over the back yard from an upstairs window, where she would be ironing or something like that.
而且我们没有 — 比如说，我妈妈 会从楼上的窗户 往下看， 当她熨衣服或者做家务时。
152.And she was usually just sort of keeping an eye on, and if there was puffs of smoke out there, she’d lean out and admonish us all not to blow our eyes out. That was her —
她常会注意我们， 如果有什么烟呀之类的 她会俯身和我们说， 别把眼睛炸瞎了！这就是她的 —
153.You know, that was kind of the worst thing that could happen to us.
你知道，这就是她以为能发生的最坏的事情。
154.That’s why I thought, as long as I don’t blow my eyes out …
这就是为什么我想，只要我不会把眼睛炸瞎，
155.I may not care about the fact that it’s prohibited from heating this solution.
我就不用担心 假设这个混合物是不允许的。
156.I’m going to do it carefully, but I’ll do it.
我只需要很小心，但是我还是要做这个实验。
157.It’s like anything else that’s prohibited: you do it behind the garage.
这就像是别的那些不被允许的事情， 关键是偷偷地在车库后面（别人看不见的地方）做。
158.(Laughter) So, I went to the drug store and I tried to buy some potassium perchlorate and it wasn’t unreasonable then for a kid to walk into a drug store and buy chemicals.
（笑声） 所以我就去了药店， 试图买高氯酸钾。 那时候一个孩子进药店买化学药品 没什么大不了的。
159.Nowadays, it’s no ma’am, check your shoes. And like — (Laughter) But then it wasn’t — they didn’t have any, but the guy had — I said, what kind of salts or potassium do you have? You know.
要是现在，那就是“没门， 脱鞋检查”。而且 — （笑声） 那时候也不是说 — 他们根本没有那些化学药剂。那个人有 — 我进去问：你们有什么样的钾盐？你知道，
160.And he had potassium nitrate.
他有硝酸钾。
161.And I said, that might do the same thing, whatever it is.
我就说，那应该也行。什么钾盐都好。
162.I’m sure it’s got to do with rockets or it wouldn’t be in that manual.
我相信这还是可以用来做火箭的，要不然钾盐不会出现在手册中。
163.And so I — I did some experiments.
所以我就做了些实验。
164.You know, I started off with little tiny amounts of potassium nitrate and sugar, which was readily available, and I mixed it in different proportions,
你知道，我一开始用很少一点点， 的硝酸钾和食糖， 食糖很好搞到， 然后我把它们不同比例混起来
165.and I tried to light it on fire.
试图点着。
166.Just to see what would happen, if you mixed it together.
只是为了看看会发生什么，如果你把它们混起来。
167.And it — they burned.
这东西 — 这混合物点着了。
168.It burned kind of slow, but it made a nice smell, compared to other rocket fuels I had tried, that all had sulfur in them.
它烧得很慢，但是闻起来很好闻， 不像其他那些我试过的火箭燃料， 有硫在里面的那些。
169.And, it smelt like burnt candy.
它闻起来像是烧焦了的糖。
170.And then I tried the melting business, and I melted it.
接着我试着熔化它，我做到了。
171.And then it melted into a little sort of syrupy liquid, brown.
它熔化成一小片糖浆一样的液体，
172.And then it cooled down to a brick-hard substance, that when you lit that, it went off like a bat.
接着冷却变成了一块像砖一样的东西。 然后你把它点着， 它一下子就飞起来了。
173.I mean, the little bowl of that stuff that had cooled down — you’d light it, and it would just start dancing around the yard.
我是说，这一小碗东西，冷却之后 — 你一点着它，它就在后院里跳来跳去。
174.And I said, there is a way to get a frog up to where he wants to go.
我就说， 我们就用它把青蛙送上天去!
175.(Laughter) So I started developing — you know, George’s dad had a lot of help. I just had my brother.
（笑声） 就这样我就开始发展这个技术 — 你知道，George的父亲得到了很多的帮助。可是我只有我弟弟帮忙。
176.But I — it took me about — it took me about, I’d say, six months to finally figure out all the little things.
就这样我 — 我花了 — 我花了 我得说，六个月的时间 才终于弄明白了所有的细节。
177.There’s a lot of little things involved in making a rocket that it will actually work, even after you have the fuel.
做个火箭，真的能飞的火箭， 这件事包含很多细节， 即使是你有燃料在手。
178.But you do it, by — what I just– you know, you do experiments, and you write down things sometimes, you make observations, you know.
但是你做这件事 — 我就是 — 你知道，靠做试验。 有时你需要写下过程， 你观察，你明白更多，
179.And then you slowly build up a theory of how this stuff works.
然后你慢慢地明白了 这个事情是怎么工作的。
180.And it was — I was following all the rules.
这就是 — 我就是这么一步步来的。
181.I didn’t know what the rules were, I’m a natural born scientist, I guess, or some kind of a throwback to the 17th century, whatever.
我那时并不知道规则是什么， 我只是个天生的科学家，我想。 或者是返祖回十七世纪去了。
182.But at any rate, we finally did have a device that would reproduceably put a frog out of sight and get him back alive.
总而言之，我们最终 有了一个能稳定地飞行的火箭， 一个能把青蛙带上天 也能把它活着带回来的火箭。
183.And we had not — I mean, we weren’t frightened by it.
而且我们一点也不 — 我是说，我们并不感到害怕。
184.We should have been, because it made a lot of smoke and it made a lot of noise, and it was powerful, you know.
我们应该感到害怕，这是一个每次运行都放出很多烟雾的， 制造出很多噪音的， 非常强大的火箭，你要知道。
185.And once in a while, they would blow up.
而且时不时它们会爆炸。
186.But I wasn’t worried, by the way, about, you know, the explosion causing the destruction of the planet.
但是我没有担心，话说回来， 担心，你知道， 我引起的爆炸会毁灭星球什么的。
187.I hadn’t heard about the 10 ways that we should be afraid of the — By the way, I could have thought, I’d better not do this because
那时候我还不知道人类的十大威胁 那些我们“应该”担心的 — 不管怎么样， 我当时也有可能会想， 我最好还是不做这个实验，
188.they say not to, you know.
因为手册上说别做。你知道。
189.And I’d better get permissionfrom the government.
而且要做也得向政府申请什么的。
190.If I’d have waited around for that, I would have never — the frog would have died, you know.
如果我真的等着批准， 我用员也不可能做成 — 那个青蛙早就老死了，你知道。
191.At any rate, I bring it up because it’s a good story, and he said, tell personal things, you know, and that’s a personal — I was going to tell you about the first night that I met my wife,
总之，我谈起这个是因为这是个（能用来说明该怎么做科研的）好故事， 而且主持人说，我应该用亲身体验来说事，这个算是亲身体验 — 我当然也可以和你们讲我和我太太第一次认识的时候的激情之夜，
192.but that would be too personal, wouldn’t it.
但是那未免太亲身体验了一点儿，对吧。
193.So, so I’ve got something else that’s not personal.
现在，我还有一些不是那么亲身经历型的例子。
194.But that … process is what I think of as science, see, where you start with some idea, and then instead of, like, looking up, every authority that you’ve ever heard of —
但是… 我看科学研究的过程， 应该是当你有一个主意， 不要只是到处查问， 问那些你认为的权威人士（怎么说）—
195.I — sometimes you do that, if you’re going to write a paper later, you want to figure out who else has worked on it.
我 — 当然有时候你也要这么做， 那是为了后来你发表你的结果的时候， 你需要知道还有谁在研究这个。
196.But in the actual process, you get an idea — like, when I got the idea one night that I could amplify DNA with two oligonucleotides,
但是科学研究的过程是，你有个主意（就要亲身实验）— 就好比有天晚上我有个主意， 想要用两个寡核苷酸复制 DNA 片段，
197.and I could make lots of copies of some little piece of DNA, you know, the thinking for that was about 20 minutes while I was driving my car,
然后就可以复制很多小片的 DNA， 你知道，这样一个想法 是我在开车回家路上那二十分钟想到的，
198.and then instead of going — I went back and I did talk to people about it, but if I’d listened to what I heard from all my friends who were molecular biologists —
我没有回家 — 我回到实验室（做实验去了）。我当然也和别人谈了我的想法， 但是如果我真的听从了我那些朋友们，他们可都是分子生物学家 —
199.I would have abandoned it.
我早就放弃了。
200.You know, if I had gone back looking for an authority figure who could tell me if it would work or not, he would have said, no, it probably won’t.
要知道，如果我回去找权威人士要意见 问这个行不行得通， 权威会说不行，这个多半行不通，
201.Because the results of it were so spectacular that if it worked it was going to change everybody’s goddamn way of doing molecular biology.
因为如果这个实验成了，结果会非常好， 结果将改变每个人作分子生物学研究的方式。
202.Nobody want a chemist to come in and poke around in their stuff like that and change things.
没有一个分子生物学家，会希望一个化学家跑来 这里试试那里试试地改变它们的工作方式。
203.But if you go to authority, and you always don’t — you don’t always get the right answer, see.
如果你去问权威的意见，你通常不会 — 你不会得到正确的答案。对吧。
204.But I knew, you’d go into the lab and you’d try to make it work yourself. And then you’re the authority, and you can say, I know it works,
要我说，你应该去实验室， 自己做实验，做成了你就是权威了。 你就可以拍拍胸脯说，我保证这个能成。
205.because right there in that tube is where it happened, and here, on this gel, there’s a little band there that I know that’s DNA, and that’s the DNA I wanted to amplify,
因为就在那里，那个试管里 我复制了 DNA。 在这里，这块胶上，这里有个小小的条带， 我知道这个是 DNA，我想要复制的那个 DNA，
206.so there!So it does work.
所以成了！我做成了。
207.You know, that’s how you do science.
你知道，这是你应该怎么样作科研。
208.And then you say, well, what can make it work better?
然后你说，唔，现在我怎么作能让复制 DNA 更容易呢？
209.And then you figure out better and better ways to do it.
接着你就试出更好的办法来。
210.But you always work from, from like, facts that you have made available to you by doing experiments: things that you could do on a stage.
但是要记住你永远要从事实出发， 你做实验得到的那些事实 那些你能够上台展示给人们的事实。
211.And no tricky shit behind the thing. I mean, it’s all — you’ve got to be very honest with what you’re doing if it really is going to work.
不能背后搞鬼。这是最基本的 — 你得诚实 关于你做的实验，关于你的实验是不是成功的。
212.I mean, you can’t make up results, and then do another experiment based on that one.
我强调，你不能捏造数据， 然后拿这个假数据当基础做别的实验，
213.So you have to be honest.
所以你必须得诚实。
214.And I’m basically honest.
我挺诚实的。
215.I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty would always get me in trouble, if I, like — so I’ve just sort of been naturally honest
我记性不好，要是不说实话，前后对不上我就倒霉了。 如果我（撒谎的话可不妙）— 所以自然而然地我又诚实
216.and naturally inquisitive, and that sort of leads to that kind of science.
又好奇， 这两种气质引导我进入了实验科学。
217.Now, let’s see …
好的，让我看看… …
218.I’ve got another five minutes, right?
我剩下五分钟，对吧？
219.OK. All scientists aren’t like that.
好的（言归正传），不是所有的科学家都诚实的。
220.You know — and there is a lot — (Laughter) There is a lot — a lot has been going on since Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.
你知道 — 有不少 — （笑声） 真的有很多 — 在牛顿时代和十七世纪时代实验科学萌芽之后， 发生了很多事情。
221.One of the things that happened right around World War II in that same time period before, and as sure as hell afterwards, government got — realized that scientists aren’t strange dudes
其中一件事就是差不多第二次世界大战时 其实那之前也有， 当然之后更多， 政府 — 认识到科学家不仅仅是那些
222.that, you know, hide in ivory towers and do ridiculous things with test tube.
躲在象牙塔里 摆弄试管的怪人，
223.Scientists, you know, made World War II as we know it, quite possible.
科学家，要知道，让第二次世界大战 大家都知道，有机会发生。
224.They made faster things.
科学家发明了更快的飞机，
225.They made bigger guns to shoot them down with.
科学家也发明了更大的枪炮把这些飞机射下来，
226.You know, they made drugs to give the pilots if they were broken up in the process, They made all kinds of — and then finally one giant bomb
接着，科学家还发明了药，给飞行员吃， 这样他们就不会精神上有问题。 科学家发明了各种各样的东西 — 最后还发明了一个大核弹
227.to end the whole thing, right?
结束了第二次世界大战。对不对？
228.And everybody stepped back a little and said, you know, we ought to invest in this shit, because whoever has got the most of these people
之后人人仔细一看，都意识到， 我们得在科研上投资， 因为谁拥有了这些科学家，
229.working in the places is going to have a dominant position, at least in the military, and probably in all kind of economic ways.
这些科技成果，谁就有主动权， 至少在军事方面，而且很可能也在经济发展方面。
230.And they got involved in it, and the scientific and industrial establishment was born, And out of that came a lot of scientists who were in there for the money, you know,
所以政府干预了，科学界 和工业界开始结合。 这时就出现了一帮所谓科学家 为了名利而从事科研工作。你知道。
231.because it was suddenly available.
因为突然之间你能有名利了。
232.And they weren’t the curious little boys that liked to put frogs up in the air.
他们可不是（像我一样的）好奇的小男孩， 就是想把青蛙送上天。
233.They were the same people that later went in to medical school, you know, because there was money in it, you know. I mean, later, then they all got into business —
他们就像是那种后来争着当医生 为了钱当医生的人，你知道，我是说，后来，这样的人都去了商业界 —
234.I mean, there are waves of going into your high school, person saying, you want to be right, you know, be a scientist. You know, not anymore.
我是说，是有这种潮流的，当你上高中时， 人们说，你得将来当科学家，现在不是了，
235.You want to be rich, you be a businessman.
想挣钱你得从商。
236.But a lot of people got in it for the money and the power and the travel.
但是正因为科学家为了钱作科研，为了出名，为了能到处跑，
237.That’s back when travel was easy.
那时候到处跑还挺容易的。
238.And those people don’t think — They don’t — they don’t always tell you the truth, you know.
这些人并不认为 — 他们不 — 他们不是总说实话的。你知道。
239.There is nothing in their contract, in fact, that makes it to their advantage always, to tell you the truth.
说实话可不在合同里，事实上， 说实话并不是 总对他们有利的。
240.And the people I’m talking about are people that like — they say that they’re a member of the committee called, say, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
我说的这些人就像是 — 政府间的全球气候改变委员会 里面那些委员们，
241.And they — and they have these big meetings where they try to figure out how we’re going to — how we’re going to continually prove
他们 — 他们动不动就开会说 他们正在试图研究我们该怎么 —
242.that the planet is getting warmer, when that’s actually contrary to most people’s sensations.
该怎么证明地球变暖， 虽然大家并没有感觉到。
243.I mean, if you actually measure the temperature over a period — I mean, the temperature has been measured now pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years —
我是说，如果你真的测量， 地表温度相当长一段时期 — 我是说，地表温度其实已经被小心观察了 五十到六十年了 —
244.longer than that it’s been measured, but in really nice, precise ways, and records have been kept for 50 or 60 years, and in fact, the temperature hadn’t really gone up.
其实比那个还长， 只是这五六十年来测量工作很细致。 全是记录在案的。 事实上，地表温度没真的上升。
245.It’s like, the average temperature has gone up a tiny little bit, because the nighttime temperatures at the weather stations have come up just a little bit.
就好比说，平均地表温度 上升了一点点， 因为夜晚的温度， 在气象局测量的上升了一点点。
246.But there’s a good explanation for that.
但是其实这里有个原因。
247.And it’s that the weather stations are all built outside of town, where the airport was, and now the town’s moved out there, there’s concrete all around
这是因为气象局都建在城市之外， 飞机场边之类的地方，而现在 诚实变大了，气象局四周都变成了混凝土结构，（所以夜晚温度上升了，）
248.and they call it the skyline effect.
这叫做天际线影响。
249.And most responsible people that measure temperatures realize you have to shield your measuring device from that.
那些负责任的测量温度的人 认识到 你得把这个因素考虑进去，
250.And even then, you know, because the buildings get warm in the daytime, and they keep it a little warmer at night.
但是即使这样，你知道， 由于建筑物白天变热， 晚上它们还是会保持一些热量，
251.So the temperature has been, sort of, inching up.
所以平均温度上升了一些。
252.It should have been. But not a lot. Not like, you know — The first guy — the first guy that got the idea that we’re going to fry ourselves here,
这是应当的。 但是不应该上升很多，你知道 — 第一个人 — 第一个提出 我们将把自己烤熟的人，
253.actually, he didn’t think of it that way.
其实，他并不认为温度会上升很多。
254.His name was Sven Arrhenius. He was Swedish, and he said, if you double the CO2 level in the atmosphere, which he thought might — this is in 1900 —
他的名字是 Sven Arrhenius，瑞典人。他说， 如果大气含有两倍的二氧化碳， 他认为可能会 — 那时是 1900 年 —
255.the temperature ought to go up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated.
温度会上升 5.5 度，他计算过，
256.He was thinking of the earth as, kind of like, you know, like a completely insulated thing with no stuff in it, really, just energy coming down, energy leaving.
他认为地球会像 你知道，一个完全与外界隔离的系统， 也不包含任何东西，真的， 只是能量进来，能量出去。
257.And so he came up with this theory, and he said, this will be cool, because it’ll be a longer growing season in Sweden, you know, and the surfers liked it,
他建立了这个理论， 他认为挺好的 因为这样瑞典就能有长些的农作物生长期。 你知道。而且我担保冲浪爱好者也会高兴，
258.the surfers thought, that’s a cool idea, because it’s pretty cold in the ocean sometimes, and — but a lot of other people later on
冲浪的人会说，这下好， 因为有时候海里还是挺冷的，而且 — 但是很多人后来
259.started thinking it would be bad, you know.
开始觉得这不好，你知道。
260.But nobody actually demonstrated it, right?
但是没人真的证明地球会变暖，对不对？
261.I mean, the temperature as measured — and you can find this on our wonderful Internet, you just go and look for all NASAs records,
我是说，地表温度也观察了 — 你可以在网上就看到。 你可以去 NASA 网站上看他们的资料，
262.and all the weather bureau’s records, and you’ll look at it yourself, and you’ll see, the temperature has just — the nighttime temperature measured on the surface of the planet
还有那些气象局的数据， 你自己看看，你会发现，地表温度其实 — 地球表面夜晚的平均温度
263.has gone up a tiny little bit.
上升了一点点，
264.So if you just average that and the daytime temperature, it looks like it went up about .7 degrees in this century.
所以如果你把白天和晚上的地表温度区平均，看起来整个地球变暖了一点 大概 0.7 度吧，整个二十世纪。
265.But in fact, it was just coming up — it was the nighttime; the daytime temperatures didn’t go up.
但事实上，上升的只是 — 只是夜晚的温度，白天的温度没有上升。
266.So — and Arrhenius’ theory — and all the global warmers think — they would say, yeah, it should go up in the daytime, too, if it’s the greenhouse effect.
所以 — 根据 Arrhenius 这个理论 — 所有支持地球变暖的人会认为 — 他们会说，对啦，白天的温度也应该上升呀， 如果温室效应是真的话。
267.Now, people like things that have, like, names, like that, that they can envision it, right? I mean — but people don’t like things like this, so — most — I mean,
所以说，人们喜欢这种牛皮哄哄的东西，新名词儿， 你可以凭空想象，对不对？我是说 — 人们不喜欢实事求是，他们 — 大多数人 — 我是说
268.you don’t get all excited about things like the actual evidence, you know, which would be evidence for strengthening of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.
你不容易对具体的数据感到兴奋， 那些实实在在的证据，你知道， 那些可以证明 二十世纪九十年代的热带环流现象的证据。
269.It’s a paper that came out in February, and most of you probably hadn’t heard about it.
今年二月有篇论文发表了， 你们大多数人可能还没读过，叫做
270.”Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget.”
“关于十年来热带辐射能源预测和实际量间 的巨大差异的证据”。
271.Excuse me. Those papers were published by NASA, and some scientists at Columbia, and Viliki and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.
（咳嗽声）不好意思。这些文章有的是 NASA 发表的， 有的是哥伦比亚大学或者 Viliki 的科学家 还有普林斯顿的。
272.And those two papers came out in Science Magazine, February the first, and these — the conclusion in both of these papers, and in also the Science editor’s, like,
这两篇论文发表在“科学”杂志上 二月的第一期， 还有这些 — 这两篇论文的结论 还有“科学”杂志的编辑们对于这两篇论文的描述
273.descriptions of these papers, for, you know, for the quickie, is that our theories about global warming are completely wrong. I mean,
是，你知道， 快速说一下， 是说我们的全球变暖的假测 是错的。我是说，
274.what these guys were doing, and this is what — the NASA people have been saying this for a long time.
这些人做的， 也就是 — 这些 NASA 的人长期以来所说的。
275.They say, if you measure the temperature of the atmosphere, it isn’t going up — it’s not going up at all. We’ve doing it very carefully now for 20 years,
他们说，如果你测量一下大气层的温度，没有上升 — 一点也没上升。我们已经小心观察了二十年了，
276.from satellites, and it isn’t going up.
用卫星看，气温没有上升。
277.And in this paper, they show something much more striking, and that was that they did what they call a radiation — and I’m not going to go into the details of it, actually it’s quite complicated,
这篇文章里，他们展示了一些数据，更为震惊。 他们做了个试验叫做辐射实验 — 我不想多谈细节，其实挺复杂的，
278.but it isn’t as complicated as they might make you think it is by the words they use in those papers. If you really get down to it, they say,
即使不复杂他们也会试着把它写的 复杂，（才好发表）。如果你真读懂了，他们所说的不外是，
279.the sun puts out a certain amount of energy — we know how much that is — it falls on the earth, the earth gives back a certain amount.
太阳放射出一定量的能量 — 我们可以测出这个能量是多少 — 一些能量传到地球，地球也会反过来放出一些能量。
280.When it gets warm it generates — it makes redder energy — I mean, like infra-red, like something that’s warm gives off infra-red.
当地球变暖，地球会产生 — 地球会放出更“红”的能量波 — 我是说，就像红外线， 有温度的东西能放射红外线。
281.The whole business of the global warming — trash, really, is that — if the — if there’s too much CO2 in the atmosphere, the heat that’s trying to escape
这整个地球变暖的故事 — 其实不对，真的， 应该会 — 如果，如果大气层真的有过多的二氧化碳， 热量排不出去，
282.won’t be able to get out. But the heat coming from the sun, which is mostly down in the — it’s like 350 nanometers, which is where it’s centered — that goes right through CO2.
但是太阳会源源不断地送热量过来， 波长大概是 350 纳米， 这是最中心的波长 — 这个波长的能量波会穿过（大气中的）二氧化碳，
283.So you still get heated, but you don’t dissipate any.
所以地球还是会（被太阳）加热，但是热量散不出去。（这样地球就应该发出更“红”的能量波。）
284.Well, these guys measured all of those things.
就这样，这些科学家把这些因素都测量了一遍，
285.I mean, you can talk about that stuff, and you can write these large reports, and you can get government money to do it, but these — they actually measured it,
我是说，你可以空谈， 你可以写那些耸人听闻的报告，你也可以向政府要钱（来解决这些不存在的问题）， 但是这些科学家 — 他们实实在在地作了测量，
286.and it turns out that in the last 10 years — that’s why they say “decadal” there — that the energy — that the level of what they call “imbalance”
结果发现过去十年 — 那就是他们问什么命名这篇文章“十年来” — 那些能源 — 他们所说的“不平衡”的水平
287.has been way the hell over what was expected.
根本没有达到（用全球变暖的假说）预测出的程度。
288.Like, the amount of imbalance — meaning, heat’s coming in and it’s not going out that you would get from having double the CO2, which we’re not anywhere near that, by the way.
就是说，这个不平衡的程度 也就是地球接受的能源和地球没能放射出去的能源之间的差异， 如果按照大气层中的二氧化碳加倍来算， 其实二氧化碳远没有加倍，
289.But if we did, in 2025 or something, have double the CO2 as we had in 1900, they say it would be increase the energy budget by about — in other words,
但如果真的是加倍了，在 2025 年或者别的什么时候， 和 1990 年比大气层中的二氧化碳加倍了， 科学家们说这个预测的能量不平衡， 会增加 — 简单点说，
290.one watt per square centimeter more would be coming in than going out.
每个平方厘米一瓦特， 在进来和出去的能量间比较。
291.So the planet should get warmer.
这样我们的星球就会变暖一点。
292.Well, they found out in this study — these two studies by two different teams — that five and a half watts per square meter had been coming in from 1998, 1999,
但是，他们在实验后发现 — 两个实验 不同的团队做 — 1998 年和 1999 年， 每个平方米的能量差异是 5.5 瓦特，
293.and the place didn’t get warmer.
但是我们的星球并没有变暖。
294.So the theory’s kaput — it’s nothing.
所以这个全球变暖的理论 — 不成立。
295.These papers should have been called, “The End to the Global Warming Fiasco,” you know.
这些论文应该叫做 “地球变暖理论的尴尬终结”，你知道。
296.They’re concerned, and you can tell they have very guarded conclusions in these papers, because they’re talking about big laboratories
他们非常小心， 你可以看出他们在论文中作结论的时候是很谨慎的， 因为他们自己，是这些国家级的大实验室，
297.that are funded by lots of money and by scared people.
从那些怕地球变暖的人那里 得到大量研究经费的实验室。
298.You know, if they said, you know what?
你知道，如果这些科学家在论文里说，你知道么？
299.There isn’t a problem with global warming any longer, so we can — you know, they’re funding.
我们不再有地球变暖的问题， 所以我们可以（停止这些研究）— 你知道，那些给经费的人可正在给这些实验室钱呢。
300.And if you start a grant request with something like that, and say, global warming obviously hadn’t happened …
如果你在向这些人申请资助， 说地球变暖从来也没有发生过，（那问题就大了）…
301.if they — if they — if they actually — if they actually said that, I’m getting out.
如果这些科学家 — 他们 — 他们真的 — 如果他们真的这么说了， 我看我得先溜了。
302.(Laughter) I’ll stand up too, and — (Laughter) (Applause) They have to say that.
（笑声） 我不妨站起来说话（这样逃得快些），就是说 — （笑声） （掌声） 他们不得不有所保留。
303.They had to be very cautious.
他们必须小心说话。
304.But what I’m saying is, you can be delighted, because the editor of Science, who is no dummy, and both of these fairly professional —
我的意思是，你可以为了（地球变暖不再是问题）而高兴， 因为“科学”杂志的编辑，他们可不傻， 还有这两个很专业的团队 —
305.really professional teams, have really come to the same conclusion and in the bottom lines in their papers they have to say, what this means is, that what we’ve been thinking,
非常专业的团队，都真的得出了相同的结论， 在他们文章的最后， 他们必须得说实话，也就是我们一直以来认为的，
306.was the global circulation model that we predict that the earth is going to get overheated that it’s all wrong. It’s wrong by a large factor.
我们用来作出地球变暖的假设的 所谓全球流通的气候模型 是不对的。差得远了。
307.It’s not by a small one. They just — they just misinterpreted the fact that the earth — there’s obviously some mechanisms going on
不是差了一点点。他们只是 — 他们只是错误地估计了地球， 这里一定有什么秘密机制存在，
308.that nobody knew about, because the heat’s coming in and it didn’t getting warmer.
还没人知道， 因为热量进来，但是地球没有变暖，
309.So the planet is a pretty amazing thing, you know, it’s big and horrible — and big and wonderful, and it does all kinds of things we don’t know anything about.
所以说（地球一定有办法不变暖，）我们的星球不得了，你知道， 它这么大，这么令人震惊 — 这么大，也这么奇妙。 我们不知道的关于地球的事情有很多。
310.So I mean, the reason I put those things all together, OK, here’s the way you’re supposed to do science — some science is done for other reasons, and just curiosity.
总的来说我的意思是，我今天把这几点放在一起说的原因 就是，这是你应该怎么搞科研 — 有的科学做起来是有原因，比如仅仅是好奇心。
311.And there’s a lot of things like global warming, and ozone hole and you know, a whole bunch of scientific public issues, that if you’re interested in them,
但是有些科学研究比如全球变暖理论， 臭氧层空洞之类的，你知道， 一大堆这样的公众的科学理论， 如果你对它们感兴趣，
312.then you have to get down the details, and read the papers called, “Large Decadal Variability in the … ”
你一定要调查研究所有的细节，读读这篇文章 “巨大差异…”
313.You have to figure out what all those words mean.
你必须弄明白这些研究是怎么回事情。
314.And if you just listen to the guys who are hyping those issues, and making a lot of money out of it, you’ll be misinformed, And you’ll be worrying about the wrong things.
否则你就会轻信别人的话， 那些提出这些问题的人，那些从中获利的人， 你将会被骗，还会一直担心那些不存在的危机。
315.Remember the 10 things that are going to get you. The — one of them — (Laughter) And the asteroids is the one I really agree with there.
别忘了那十种世界终结的方式。那个 — 其中有一个 — （笑声） 小行星，那项我特别同意。
316.I mean, you’ve got to watch out for asteroids. OK, thank you for having me here.
我是说，你得提防那些小行星。好啦，谢谢你们请我来。
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