AubreydeGrey_我们能够避免老化【中英文对照】

1.18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit, so I’m going to dive straight in, right at the point where I get this thing to work.
十八分钟是一个非常紧的时间限制， 因此我直入主题，讲重点的， 我将马上开始。
2.Here we go. I’m going to talk about five different things.
好，我要谈五个不同的事情。
3.I’m going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
一，我要谈谈为什么抗老化是可行的。
4.I’m going to talk about why we have to get our shit together, and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
二，我要谈谈为什么我们必须打起精神， 多讨论这个课题，并且发觉我们应该指望战胜老化。
5.I’m going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
当然，三，我也会谈谈战胜老化的可行性。
6.I’m going to talk about why we are so fatalistic about doing anything about aging.
四，我要谈谈为什么我们在人类抗老化上采取的行动这么的认命， 以为都是注定的。
7.And then I’m going spend perhaps the second half of the talk talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
然后，第五，我也许在这个节目的下半段的时间谈谈 我们如何证明这个[对战胜老化]漠不关心以及以为是注定的心态是错误的，
8.namely, by actually doing something about it.
并且实际上做点什么事来纠正这个错误。
9.I’m going to do that in two steps.
这第五点，我会用两个步骤来谈论。
10.The first one I’m going to talk about is how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension — which I’m going to define as 30 years, applied to people
第一个步骤是 如何从一个相对适中的延长寿命治疗科技 – 我这就把它定义为可延长三十年寿命，
11.who are already in middle-age when you start — to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
并且在已经是中年年龄的人开始应用 – 直到一个能真正被称为战胜老化问题的程度。
12.Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between how old you are, and how likely you are to die in the next year — or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
也就是说，实质上消除了你多大年纪， 以及你在下一年死去或 生病的可能性之间的关系。
13.And of course, the last thing I’m going to talk about is how to reach that intermediate step, that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
最后一件事[第五件事情， 第二个步骤]我要谈的是如何实现过度步骤， 那个能给我们每一个人延长三十年寿命的治疗科技。
14.So I’m going to start with why we should.
好，我就从为什么要延长人类的寿命开始。
15.Now, I want to ask a question.
现在，我想问一个问题。
16.Hands up: Anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
观众席里有谁赞成疟疾是有利的？请举手。
17.That was easy. OK.
好，这很简单。
18.OK. Hands up, anyone in the audience who’s not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
行。行。请不知道疟疾 是好事还是坏事的人举手？
19.OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
好。所以，我们都认为，疟疾是一件坏事。
20.That’s very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
这是一个非常好的消息，因为我原以为这就是答案。
21.Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
现在我希望你们想一想 我们认为疟疾是一件坏事主要的原因， 是因为疟疾和老化有着共同的特征。
22.And here is that characteristic.
那个特征就是两者都杀死人。
23.The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
唯一真正的区别是，老龄化杀死的人数比疟疾杀死的多许多。
24.Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially, to talk about the comparison with fox-hunting, which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
现在，我喜欢观众，尤其是在英国的观众， 比较一下老化和打猎狐狸。 打猎狐狸是是经过长期斗争
25.by the government not very many months ago.
不久前被政府禁止的活动。
26.I mean, I know I’m with a sympathetic audience here, but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
我的意思是，虽然我知道富有同情心的观众应该大多数都反对打猎狐狸， 但我们知道，很多人并不是完全被这个逻辑说服。
27.And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
在我看来，这其实和老化是一个不错的比较。
28.You know, a lot of people said, “Well, you know, city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
你知道，很多[郊外]的人说：“你们这些 住在城市的人没有权利告诉我们什么活动可以做什么东西不能做。
29.It’s a traditional part of the way of life, and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
这是我们[住在郊外的人]的传统生活方式的一部分， 我们应该有权力继续做它。
30.It’s ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes.”
这是促进生态健全的，它控制了狐狸数量爆涨。”
31.But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end, because the majority of the British public, and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
但是，政府最终占了上风， 因为大多数的英国公众， 还有国会多数成员，
32.came to the conclusion that it was really something that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
得出的结论，就是这[打猎狐狸] 是一个文明社会所不能容忍的活动。
33.And I think that human aging shares all of these characteristics in spades.
我认为，人类衰老也有这些特点， 它是一个不能容忍的活动。
34.What part of this do people not understand?
这有什么难明白的？
35.It’s not just about life, of course — (Laughter) it’s about healthy life, you know — getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
这当然不只是生命， （众笑） 这也是有关可以健康的生活下去。 因为无论人们觉得死亡是否好玩[是否应该容忍]，
36.whether or not dying may be fun.
身体越来越衰弱，悲惨地依赖别人一点都不好玩。
37.So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
因此，其实这就是我想要对它的[人类衰老]描述。
38.It’s a global trance.
这[它]是一个全球性恍惚。
39.These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses that people give for aging.
这是人们对老龄化作出了 种种令人难以置信的借口。
40.And, I mean, OK, I’m not actually saying that these excuses are completely valueless.
而且，我的意思是，好吧，我不是在说 这些借口是完全没有价值。
41.There are some good points to be made here.
这些借口也有一些好的积极方面。
42.Things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning so that nothing goes too — well, so that we minimize the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
比如说我们应该思考的种种问题，有规划些， 来尽量减少我们在战胜老化路途上 的不必要的动荡。
43.But these are completely crazy, when you actually remember your sense of proportion.
但只要如果你真正衡量它们， 这些借口都是完全疯了！
44.You know, these are arguments, these are things that would be legitimate to be concerned about.
你知道，这些[借口的]论点 是合理的，值得去关注。
45.But the question is, are they so dangerous — these risks of doing something about aging — that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
但问题是，这些论点有没有那么危险? 战胜老化的风险 有没有高过
46.namely, leaving aging as it is?
不理会人类老化的代价？
47.Are these so bad that they outweigh condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death.
难道这些[修复老化的风险]如此糟糕， 比每天超过十万人面对早死的命运还糟糕？
48.You know, if you haven’t got an argument that’s that strong, then just don’t waste my time, is what I say.
你知道，如果你还没有比这一个说法更强的论点， 那么就不要浪费我的时间。这是我[对反对战胜老化]的看法。
49.(Laughter) Now, there is one argument that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
（众笑） 话虽如此，有一种观点有些人认为， 确实是很强，我们就在这儿讨论一下。
50.People worry about overpopulation; they say, “Well, if we fix aging, no one’s going to die to speak of, or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
人们担心人口过多，他们说， “好吧，如果我们战胜老化，没有人类死亡可言， 或至少是死亡人数变得低得多，
51.only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
变得只有不小心越过圣吉尔斯河而死[笑话]。
52.And therefore, we’re not going to be able to have many kids, and kids are really important to most people.”
因此，我们不需要有很多孩子， 可是孩子对多数人很重要。”
53.And that’s true.
这是事实。
54.And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question, and give answers like this.
你知道，很多人试图捏造这个问题， 并给予这样的答案。
55.I don’t agree with those answers. I think they basically don’t work.
我不同意这些答案。我认为它们根本行不通。
56.I think it’s true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
我认为这是真的，我们会在这方面面临两难。
57.We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate, or a high death rate.
我们将必须决定是否有一个低生育水平， 或者高死亡率。
58.A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies, in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
拒绝这些战胜老化治疗，死亡率就会变高[和接受治疗的死亡率相比下]， 当然，在这种情况下我们就能生许多孩子。
59.And, I say that that’s fine — the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
我觉得这没问题 – 人类的下一代，有权做出这个选择。
60.What’s not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
不正确和不应该的是我们现在就替下一代的做出这个选择。
61.If we vacillate, hesitate, and do not actually develop these therapies, then we are condemning a whole cohort of people — who would have been young enough and healthy enough
如果因为我们犹豫， 而不开发这些[战胜老化的]疗法， 那么我们就等于判了我们的子孙一个不能永远活着的命运。 本来因为他们够年轻，够健康，
62.to benefit from those therapies but will not be, because we haven’t developed them as quickly as we could — we’ll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
可以获益于这些疗法。 但因为我们的犹豫，没有尽快开发这些疗法 – 我们等于不让这些人有更长的寿命，
63.and I consider that that is immoral.
我认为这是不道德的。
64.That’s my answer to the overpopulation question.
这是我对人口过多的问题的回应。
65.Right. So the next thing is, now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
好，接下来的是， 为什么我们应该在这一方面积极点？
66.And the fundamental answer is that the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
最根本的答案是，[潜意识的认同老化是必然的] 亲老化恍惚并不像它看起来的那么笨。
67.It’s actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
它其实是在应对无法避免的老化时的一个很明智的办法。
68.Aging is ghastly, but it’s inevitable, so, you know, we’ve got to find some way to put it out of our minds, and it’s rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
老化是可怕的，但它是不可避免的，所以， 我们必须想尽办法把这想法从我们头脑中忘记， 理性地去做我们想要做的事情来改变。
69.Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons why aging is actually a good thing after all.
例如，人类会想出这些荒谬的原因 来解释其实老化是件好事。
70.But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
当然，这些[荒谬]的原因的起因有两个连接部分[一是老化，二是命中注定。]
71.And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear — and we might be in range of doing something about aging — this becomes part of the problem.
只要命中注定那个部分在我们的脑海中没那么的肯定， 我们就可以开始对战胜老化采取行动， 这是老化问题的一部分。
72.This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
这亲老化恍惚常常妨碍人们解决老化这个问题。
73.And that’s why we have to really talk about this a lot — evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot — in order to get people’s attention, and make people realize
这就是为什么我们一定要继续提出以及谈论这个课题， 我甚至会说 – 为了吸引人们的注意力，使人们认识到，
74.that they are in a trance in this regard.
他们在这方面的恍惚，
75.So that’s all I’m going to say about that.
关于这个话题我就说到这里。
76.I’m now going to talk about feasibility.
我现在要谈的是第三点，打败老化的可行性。
77.And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable is summed up in a definition of aging that I’m giving here.
其根本原因，我想，为什么我们认为老化是不可避免的， 是可以用我在这儿给老化的定义作为总结。
78.A very simple definition.
这是一个非常简单的定义。
79.Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place, which is to say, metabolism.
老化是一种活着的副作用， 也就是说，新陈代谢的副作用。
80.This is not a completely tautological statement; it’s a reasonable statement.
这并不是一个完全同义重复的声明， 它是一个合理的声明。
81.Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars, and it also happens to us, despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
老龄化基本上是一个过程，发生在无生命的物体如汽车， 也发生在人类的身上， 尽管我们的身体有很多聪明的自我修复机制，
82.because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
因为这些自我修复机制还不完善[我们还是会老化]。
83.So basically, metabolism, which is defined as basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next, has side effects.
基本上，新陈代谢，就是说 [在我们身体里]所有为了让我们能够每一天活着所维持的种种化学过程， 有副作用。
84.Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
这些副作用会不断的积累，最终导致病理[不可避免的死亡]。
85.That’s a fine definition. So we can put it this way: we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
这是一个不错的定义。因此，我们可以这样表达, 我们可以说，大家都知道，我们有着这一系列事件。
86.And there are really two games in town, according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
而且根据大多数人，对于推迟衰老， 只有两种方法。
87.They’re what I’m calling here the gerontology approach and the geriatrics approach.
这两种方法就是老年学和老年医学。
88.The geriatrician will intervene late in the day, when pathology is becoming evident, and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
老年医学医生会在一个人老化过程的后段， 病理越来越明显的时候， 做治疗来尽量阻止老化时间
89.and stop the accumulation of side effects from causing the pathology quite so soon.
和副作用积累 并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡。
90.Of course, it’s a very short-termist strategy, it’s a losing battle, because the things that are causing the pathology are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
当然，这是一个非常短暂的战略，是一个败仗， 因为导致病理[不可避免地死亡]的这些副作用 会随着时间的推移越来越多。
91.The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface, because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
老年学的方法在表面上看起来更充满希望具发展前景， 因为你们也知道，预防胜于治疗。
92.But unfortunately the thing is that we don’t understand metabolism very well.
但不幸的是，我们对新陈代谢的理解非常少。
93.In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work — even cells we’re not really too good on yet.
事实上，我们对生物体的了解少的可怜 – 甚至细胞，我们都不是很懂。
94.We’ve discovered things like, for example, RNA interference only a few years ago, and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
连对细胞如何操作的 基本知识， 例如核糖核酸机能失常， 在仅仅几年前,我们才发现它。
95.Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end, but it is not an approach whose time has come when we’re talking about intervention.
基本上，如果我们要讨论在我们一生中能用到的延长寿命的治疗， 老年学以后将会是一个很好的方法， 但它的时机未到[因为我们对新陈代谢的理解还太少]。
96.So then, what do we do about that?
然后呢，这怎么办呢？
97.I mean, that’s a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing, pretty iron-clad, doesn’t it?
我的意思，这是一个很好的逻辑， 听起来非常有说服力的，不是吗？
98.But it isn’t.
但事实并非如此。
99.Before I tell you why it isn’t, I’m going to go a little bit into what I’m calling step two.
在我告诉你为什么不能之前， 我要谈谈我所谓的第二步。
100.Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire — let’s say we do it today for sake of argument — the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
我们假设，如果正如我所说的， 我们 – 假设说今天 – 就拥有能够给现在已是中年，假设说五十五岁的人，
101.on people who are already in middle age, let’s say 55.
多三十年的健康寿命的治疗方法。
102.I’m going to call that robust human rejuvenation. OK.
我称这为‘强健人类再生’ 。好。
103.What would that actually mean for how long people of various ages today — or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive —
那么实际上这对于现在不同年龄的人们， 或者相等地，当这些治疗方法到达时 已是不同年龄的人有什么影响呢？
104.would actually live?
他们会活多久些呢？
105.In order to answer that question — you might think it’s simple, but it’s not simple.
你可能会认为回答这个问题很简单， 但它并不简单。
106.We can’t just say, “Well, if they’re young enough to benefit from these therapies, then they’ll live 30 years longer.”
我们不能只是说：“好吧，如果他们足够年轻，得益于这些治疗方法， 那么他们就会活[比本来]多三十年的时间。”
107.That’s the wrong answer.
这是错误的答案。
108.And the reason it’s the wrong answer is because of progress.
而错误的原因是因为进步。
109.There are two sorts of technological progress really, for this purpose.
对于我们这方面的治疗， 科学进步有两种。
110.There are fundamental, major breakthroughs, and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
第一种是突破性的进步， 然后还有第二种就是不断的在那些突破性的进步上做出改良和提高它们的有效率。
111.Now, they differ a great deal in terms of the predictability of time frames.
这两种科学进步所需的 时间的预测度有很大的不同。
112.Fundamental breakthroughs: very hard to predict how long it’s going to take to make a fundamental breakthrough.
我们很难预测 多久才会有 突破性的进步。
113.It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun, and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
人类很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飞行了， 可是要等到一九零三年才发现到底怎么飞行。
114.But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
可是这之后，人类飞行的科技就很有步骤地发展下去。
115.I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
我认为这是一个很合乎情理才导致了 动力飞行的科技进展。
116.We can think, really, that each one is sort of beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
我们可以想象这些科技发展的每一步都是 上一步的研发人所想不到的。
117.The incremental advances have added up to something which is not incremental anymore.
比起原先每次都递进增值 有进展。
118.This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
在每个科学突破性的进步后，您都会看到这些有步骤性的发展。
119.And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
而且在很多科技上都是这样。
120.Computers, you can look at a more or less parallel time line, happening of course a bit later.
比如说电脑，和飞行科技也很类似， 只是发生的时间不同罢了。
121.You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics — you know, the same sort of time frame.
您也可以看一看医药保健科技，比如说卫生，疫苗，抗生素， 也有着一样的发展时间表。
122.So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago, isn’t a step at all.
因此，我认为其实两个步骤，我刚才称为一个步骤， 并不完全是一个步骤。
123.That in fact, the people who are young enough to benefit from these first therapies that give this moderate amount of life extension,
事实上，很年轻的人 会从这些实验治疗方法受益， 能使人们的生命适量延长，
124.even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive, will be at some sort of cusp.
即使这些人已经中年，当这些治疗方法来到 人们还可以尝试治疗方法。
125.They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
他们多数活得足够长来接受改进的治疗方法， 从而使他们多活30年甚至50年。
126.In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
换句话说，他们将领先于老化的速度。
127.The therapies will be improving faster than the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
治疗法比起治疗法中存在的缺陷 改进得更快。
128.This is a very important point for me to get across.
这是我想说的非常重要的一点。
129.Because, you know, most people, when they hear that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more, they think that I’m saying that we’re going to invent therapies in the next few decades
因为，很多人一听到 我推测很多现在活着的人将会活到一千或更多年以上， 他们都在想，哦，我们将会在这几十年内发明
130.that are so thoroughly eliminating aging that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
延缓老化的治疗方法， 研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治疗方法。
131.I’m not saying that at all.
我并不是这么说。
132.I’m saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies will be enough.
我说的只是这些延长寿命的治疗方法的 发展速度会足够使人们继续活下去。
133.They’ll never be perfect, but we’ll be able to fix the things that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
这些治疗方法我想永远都不可能完美， 但我们将可以在还没有两百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗两百岁的人所死于的病理因素。
134.And the same for three- and 400 and so on.
接下来，我们就在还没有三，四百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗三，四百岁的人所死于的因素。
135.I decided to give this a little name, which is “longevity escape velocity.”
我称这为“长寿逃逸速度”， 要逃离死亡，长寿治疗方法必有快速的发展，叫逃逸速度。
136.(Laughter) Well, it seems to get the point across.
（笑声） 这是个很容易明白的名称。
137.So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live, in terms of remaining life expectancy, as measured by their health,
这就是我们可以期待 在余下的预期寿命， 以他们的健康来衡量，
138.for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
到了一定年龄，相对应的治疗就相应而出。
139.If you’re already 100, or even if you’re 80 — and an average 80-year-old, we probably can’t do a lot for you with these therapies,
如果你已经100岁，或者你是80岁， 平均80岁， 我们可能很难为您做些什么，
140.because you’re too close to death’s door for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
因为您的时间不多了。 所以最初的，实验性疗法对你已经不起作用了。
141.You won’t be able to withstand them.
你将无法避免老化。
142.But if you’re only 50, then there’s a chance that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know — (Laughter) eventually get through this
可是，如果您才五十岁的话， 您很有可能像我刚刚描述的那个样子摆脱了老化去世的问题。 （笑声） 您不但可以活的更久些，
143.and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense, in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental, and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
某种意义上 你的青春，从身体和头脑上， 你的生命变得更加年轻， 你死于和老化有关的病症的几率也会降低。
144.And of course, if you’re a bit younger than that, then you’re never really even going to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
当然，如果你还不到五十岁的话， 您更有可能永远摆脱了老化去世的问题， 而不会虚弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡。
145.So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year old — we don’t know how old that person is today, because we don’t know how long it’s going to take
因此，这是我得到的一个真正的结论，就是说第一位[能够活到一百五十岁 – 我们不知道该人现在多老了， 因为我们不知道第一代[延长寿命的]
146.to get these first-generation therapies.
疗法要多久才会出现。
147.But irrespective of that age, I’m claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 — subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes —
但无论是年龄， 我声称的第一人会活到一千年的人 – 当然，排除全球性灾难 – 实际上，
148.is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year old.
大概只有比我说的那位活到一百五十岁的人年轻十岁左右。
149.And that’s quite a thought.
很令人值得想一想的结论吧。
150.All right, so finally I’m going to spend the rest of the talk, my last seven and a half minutes, on step one; namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
好，接下来我要用这个讲座所剩下的时间， 我的七个半分钟来谈谈我所谓的第一个步骤， 就是我们如何得到这第一批延长寿命的适中治疗，
151.that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
使我们可以达到长寿逃逸速度？
152.And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
而为了做到这一点，我需要说一点点关于老鼠的事。
153.I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
我有一个对强健人类再生相应的里程碑，
154.I’m calling it robust mouse rejuvenation, not very imaginatively.
我不是很富有想象力地称它为强健老鼠再生[的治疗科技]。
155.And this is what it is.
这是什么呢？
156.I say we’re going to take a long-lived strain of mouse, which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
就是我们要采用一种长寿的老鼠， 就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠。
157.We do exactly nothing to them until they’re already two years old.
我们完全没有碰过它们，直到它们已经两岁。
158.And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them, and with those therapies, we get them to live, on average, to their fifth birthday.
然后我们对它们做了一大堆的东西， 用那些治疗方法使它们延长寿命， 想办法让他们平均活到五岁。
159.So, in other words, we add two years — we treble their remaining lifespan, starting from the point that we started the therapies.
因此，换句话说，我们开始把这些老鼠治疗后，添加了两年寿命 – 已经是它们剩余寿命 的三倍。
160.The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
接下来的问题是，到底什么时候， 我们讨论的这些才能用在人类身上呢？
161.Which we can now, as I’ve explained, equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation, or longevity escape velocity.
我们现在可以，正如我已经解释过， 把它称为强健人类再生，或长寿逃逸速度。
162.Secondly, what does it mean for the public’s perception of how long it’s going to take for us to get to those things, starting from the time we get the mice?
第二，从我们得到的第一只老鼠时开始， 公众对多久我们才能获得这些东西， 对这些科技的发展有什么影响？
163.And thirdly, the question is, what will it do to actually how much people want it?
第三，问题是，它对多少人想要避免老化的人们起作用？ 这些科技有什么影响呢？
164.And it seems to me that the first question is entirely a biology question, and it’s extremely hard to answer.
我的看法是， 第一个问题完全是生物学的问题， 这是非常难回答。
165.One has to be very speculative, and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation, that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
一个人必须非常投机， 和我的许多同事会说，我们不应该做这种推测， 我们应该简单地保持沉默，直到我们了解更多。