AlexTabarrok_如何用创新来克服危机【中英文对照】

1.The first half of the twentieth century was an absolute disaster in human affairs, a cataclysm.
20世纪的上半叶 是人类历史上一个彻底失败的阶段, 那是一场浩劫.
2.We had the First World War, the Great Depression, the Second World War, and the rise of the communist nations.
我们经历了第一次世界大战, 大萧条, 第二次世界大战, 以及共产主义国家的兴起.
3.And each one of these forces split the world, tore the world apart, divided the world.
这其中的每一个势力都 將世界隔离开来, 分化世界, 分裂世界.
4.And they threw up walls, political walls, trade walls, transportation walls, communication walls, iron curtains, which divided peoples and nations.
这些势力制造了很多壁垒, 政治壁垒, 贸易壁垒, 运输壁垒, 通信壁垒, 以及种种阻碍交流的无形屏障, 它们分裂了人民, 也分裂了国家.
5.It was only in the second half of the  twentieth century that we slowly began to pull ourselves out of this abyss.
直到二十世纪下半叶, 我们才慢慢开始从这个 深渊里爬出来.
6.Trade walls began to come tumbling down.
贸易壁垒开始轰然倒塌.
7.Here are some data on tariffs: starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent.
这里是一些关税数据: 从开始的百分之四十, 一直降到百分之五以下.
8.We globalized the world. And what does that mean?
我们实现了全球化. 这意味着什么呢?
9.It means that we extended cooperation across national boundaries.
这意味着人类的合作 已经跨越国界.
10.We made the world more cooperative.
我们使世界变得更合作.
11.Transportation walls came tumbling down.
运输壁垒也倒塌了.
12.You know in 1950 the typical ship carried 5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods.
1950年, 一艘典型的货船可装载 五千至一万吨货物.
13.Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons.
今天,一艘集装箱船的载重量达到十五万吨.
14.It can be manned with a smaller crew, and unloaded faster than ever before.
运作它需要的船员队伍比之前还小, 而且卸载也比以往更快.
15.Communication walls, I don’t have to tell you, the internet, have come tumbling down.
通信壁垒, 不用我多说, 随着互联网的出现 也已不复存在了(GFW).
16.And of course the iron curtains, political walls have come tumbling down.
当然还有铁幕的瓦解, 政治壁垒已逐渐消除.
17.Now all of this has been tremendous for the world.
所有这一切都对世界有巨大的影响.
18.Trade has increased.
贸易增长了.
19.Here is just a little bit of data.
我有一些数据来证明.
20.In 1990 exports from China to the United States — 15 billion dollars.
1990年, 中国到美国的出口额是 150亿美元.
21.By 2007, over 300 billion dollars.
到2007年，则超过了3000亿美元.
22.And perhaps most remarkably, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, really for the first time in modern history, growth extended to almost all parts of the world.
也许最值得指出的是, 在21世纪初, 真的是第一次在现代历史上, 经济增长的势头几乎遍布世界各地
23.So China, I’ve already mentioned, beginning in 1978, around the time of the death of Mao, growth — ten percent a year.
我已经提到过中国, 从1978年开始, 大约在毛泽东去世的时候, 开始了每年百分之十的经济增长.
24.Year after year after year, absolutely incredible.
年复一年, 真是难以置信!
25.Never before in human history have so many people been raised out of such great poverty, as happened in China.
史无前例的是, 中国把这么多人从贫困中 解救出来.
26.China is the world’s greatest anti-poverty program over the last three decades.
在过去三十年里, 中国运行了世界上最成功的 摆脱贫穷项目.
27.India, starting a little bit later, but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth.
印度开始的晚一些, 但在1990年, 开始了迅猛的增长.
28.Incomes at that time less than 1,000 dollars per year.
当时的人均年收入还 不到1000美元.
29.And over the next 18 years have almost tripled.
而在接下来的18年 几乎增加了两倍.
30.Growth of six percent a year.  Absolutely incredible.
每年经济增长百分之六. 绝对难以置信.
31.Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has been the area of the world most resistant to growth.
非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲 是世界上 最抗拒发展的地区.
32.And we can see the tragedy of Africa in the first few bars here.
我们可以看到非洲的悲剧 就从这个条形图的前几个条.
33.Growth was negative.
负增长!
34.People were actually getting poorer than their parents.
人民越来越穷, 都比不上他们父母的生活水平.
35.And sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been.
有时甚至比他们的祖父母还穷.
36.But at the end of the twentieth  century, the beginning of the twenty-first century, we saw growth in Africa.
但在二十世纪末, 二十一世纪初, 我们看到非洲也开始发展.
37.And I think, as you’ll see, there’s reasons for optimism.
正如你将会看到, 我认为我们有理由乐观.
38.Because I believe that the best is yet to come.
因为我相信好戏还在后头呢!
39.Now why.
为什么这么说呢?
40.On the cutting edge today it’s new ideas which are driving growth.
在今天的发展的最前沿 主要是创新在推动经济增长.
41.And by that I mean it’s products for which the research and development costs are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low.
也就是说, 尖端产品的特点是它的研究和开发费用 非常高, 但是制造成本很低.
42.More than ever before it is these types of ideas which are driving growth on the cutting edge.
这种创新, 比以往任何时候都更加 能够推动尖端技术的发展.
43.Now ideas have this amazing property.
创新有一个很了不起的性质.
44.Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well.
我认为托马斯杰斐逊 (Thomas Jefferson) 表达得相当好.
45.He said, “He who receives an idea from me receives instruction himself, without lessening mine.
他说过,  “他接受我的一个想法， 他自己受到教育，而我的想法并没有减少.
46.As he who lights his candle at mine receives light without darkening me.
就象他借用我的蜡烛来点燃他的, 他有了光，而我并没有变暗.”
47.Or to put it  slightly differently, one apple feeds one man, but an idea can feed the world.
或者换一个说法, 一个苹果可以喂一个人, 但一个创意可以哺育整个世界.
48.Now this is not new.  This is practically not new to TEDsters.
这并没有什么新奇的. 尤其对参加TED的代表们.
49.This is practically the model of TED.
这实际上恰恰是TED的模式.
50.What is new is that the greater function of ideas is going to drive growth even more than ever before.
这里面真正的创新是认识到创意会起到更大的功能, 它会比以往任何时候都更能推动经济增长.
51.This provides a reason why trade and globalization are even more important, more powerful than ever before, and are going to increase growth more than ever before.
这就是为什么 贸易与全球化 比以往任何时候都更重要, 更有力. 而且比以往任何时候都能更快地促进经济增长.
52.And to explain why this is so, I have a question.
为了解释为什么会是这样, 我先问一个问题.
53.Suppose that there are two diseases.
假设有两个疾病,
54.One of them is rare, the other one is common.
一个是罕见的疾病，另一个是常见病.
55.But if they are not treated they are equally severe.
但是如果不治疗他们, 后果会同样严重.
56.If you had to choose, which would you rather have?
如果你来选择, 你会选哪一个呢?
57.The common disease or the rare disease?
常见病还是罕见病?
58.Common.  The common.  I think that’s absolutely right.
常见病. 对了. 我认为这是绝对正确的.
59.Why?  Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases than there are to treat rare diseases.
为什么呢? 因为治疗常见疾病的药物 会比治疗罕见疾病的药物多得多.
60.The reason for this is incentives.
问题的根源在于动力.
61.It costs about the same to produce a new drug, whether that drug treats 1,000 people, 100,000 people, or a million people.
发明新药物的成本都差不多, 无论那个药物可以治疗1000人, 10万人, 或100万人.
62.But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.
但是, 如果那个药物能治疗100万人, 它的营业收入会很高.
63.So the incentives are much larger to produce drugs which treat more people.
显然了, 生产治疗常见病药物 的动力要大得多.
64.To put this differently, larger markets save lives.
换句话说, 大市场救生命.
65.In this case misery truly does love company.
这真是真正的”同病相怜”啊.
66.Now think about the following: if China and India were as rich as the United States is today, the  market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now.
请想一想: 如果中国和印度像今天的美国一样富有, 抗癌药物的市场将是现在的8倍.
67.Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.
我们还没有达到那个程度, 但这是会实现的!
68.As other countries become richer the demand for these pharmaceuticals is going to increase tremendously.
随着其他国家变得更加富有 对这些药品的需求 将大幅增加.
69.And that means an increase incentive to do research and development, which benefits everyone in the world.
这意味着研发的动力会增加, 这对全世界每个人都有好处.
70.Larger markets increase the incentive to produce all kinds of ideas.
市场越大, 创新的动力越大.
71.Whether it’s software, whether it’s a computer chip, whether it’s a new design.
不论是软件, 还是计算机芯片, 还是一个崭新的设计.
72.For the Hollywood people in the audience, it even explains why action movies have larger budgets than comedies.
对于来自好莱坞的观众 这甚至可以解释为什么动作片的预算 比喜剧片要大.
73.It’s because action movies translate easier into other languages and other cultures.
这是因为动作片更容易翻译到 其他语言和其他文化.
74.So the market for  those movies is larger.
这些电影的市场更大,
75.People are willing to invest more, and the budgets are larger.
所以人们更愿意多投资, 所以预算可以更大.
76.Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive to produce new ideas, how do we maximize that incentive?
好. 那么, 如果市场越大, 创新的动力越大, 我们如何能最大限度地发挥这一动力呢?
77.It’s by having one world market, by globalizing the world.
通过统一世界市场, 通过世界全球化.
78.The way I like to put this is, one idea, ideas are meant to be shared, so one idea can serve one world, one market.
我喜欢的说法是, “同一个想法”, 想法就是为了分享, 就是说, 同一个想法可以为同一个世界服务, 为同一个市场服务.
79.One idea, one world, one market.
同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.
80.Well how else can we create new ideas?
除此之外, 还有什么渠道来创造新的想法呢?
81.That’s one reason.
这些动力包括
82.Globalize, trade.
全球化, 贸易.
83.How else can we create new ideas?
还有什么别的办法呢?
84.Well, more idea creators.
恩，更多的创新者.
85.Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life.
来自社会各阶层的创新者.
86.Artists and innovators, many of the people you’ve seen on this stage.
艺术家和改革家, 包括许多在这个讲台上演讲过的人.
87.I’m going to focus on scientists and engineers because I have some data on that, and I’m a data person.
我今天要特别提到科学家和工程师 因为我在这方面有一些数据. 我是一个靠数据说话的人.
88.Now, today, less than 1/10th of one percent of the world’s population are scientists and engineers.
今天, 不到百分之零点一 的世界人口是科学家和工程师.
89.(Laughter) The United States has been an idea leader.
（众笑） 美国一直是创新方面的带头人.
90.A large fraction of those people are in the United States.
一大部分的创新者在美国.
91.But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership.
但是, 美国开始失去它在创新方面的领导地位.
92.And for that I am very grateful.
对此我表示衷心感谢.
93.That is a good thing.
这是一件好事.
94.It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader because for too long the United States, and a handful of other developed countries,
庆幸的是, 我们不在是创新方面的带头人了 因为长期以来, 美国 和其他几个发达国家,
95.have shouldered the entire burden of research and development.
肩负着整个研究和开发的 的重任.
96.But consider the following: if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers
但是, 请大家考虑一下: 如果整个世界都象现在的美国一样富裕, 那么, 将有5倍多的科学家和工程师
97.contributing to ideas which benefit everyone, which are shared by everyone.
来贡献创意, 这对每个人都大有好处, 供大家分享.
98.I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan.
我想到伟大的印度数学家拉马努金 (Ramanujan).
99.How many Ramanujans are there in India today toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves, when they could be feeding the world?
在今天的印度, 有多少个Ramanujans 在耕地里辛勤地劳动, 几乎无法养活自己, 他们什么时候才能来回报世界?
100.Now we’re not there yet.
现在我们还没有达到那个程度.