StewartBrand_关于环保的四个“异端观点”【中英文对照】

1.Because of what I’m about to say, I really should establish my green credentials.
因为我等会谈论的议题的缘故 我想我必须首先讲述一下我的绿色情结
2.When I was a small boy, I took my pledge as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste the natural resources of my country.
当我还是一个小男孩，我承诺 作为一名美国人，要保护和忠实地捍卫 我国自然资源以免失去。
3.Its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.
这包括空气，土壤，矿物资源，森林，水资源和野生动物。
4.And I’ve stuck to that.
我还坚持这一承诺。
5.Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.
在斯坦福大学，我主修生态学和生物进化学。
6.1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was “mister natural” for a while.
1968年我创办了《地球目录》 一段时间我成了 “环保先生”。
7.And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.
然后就职于杰里布朗政府。
8.The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends, basically leveled the energy efficiency of California.
布朗政府期间，我和一些朋友们 主要使加州能源效率平衡。
9.So it’s the same now, 30 years later.
因此到现在，30年后，
10.Even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.
尽管我们的人均经济提高了百分之八十。
11.And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.
但我们加州比任何其他州排放越来越少的温室气体。
12.California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.
在减少温室气体排放这点，加州基本上相当于欧洲。
13.This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I’ll preview today, called Whole Earth Discipline.
今年，地球目录有一个补充，今天，我将 其称为“地球规则”。
14.The dominant demographic event of our time is this screamingly rapid urbanization that we have going on.
现在主要人口事件 是我们已经经历过的这种令人讶异的快速城市化 进程。
15.By mid-century we’ll be about 80 percent urban.
到本世纪中叶将有大约80%要城市化。
16.And that’s mostly in the developing world, where that’s happening.
而这主要是在发展中世界 要发生的事情。
17.It’s interesting. Because history is driven to a large degree by the size of cities.
有趣的是，在很大程度上 城市的大小往往也决定了历史的发展
18.The developing world now has all of the biggest cities.
现在最大的城市都在发展中国家
19.And they are developing three times faster than the developed countries.
他们的发展比发达国家的发展快3倍。
20.And nine times bigger.
规模是我们的9倍
21.It’s qualitatively different.
这是有质的不同。
22.They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.
当我们回顾历史时，它们是历史转变的驱动力。
23.1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.
一千年前的世界是什么样子。
24.Well we now have a distribution of urban power similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.
那么，我们现在有一个城市发展分布 类似于我们在1000年前城市分布。
25.In other words, the rise of the West, dramatic as it was, is over.
换言之，西方的崛起， 尽管有如一出戏剧，但它已经结束了。
26.The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming.
总人口数有压倒性的优势。
27.1.3 million people a week, coming to town, decade after decade.
每星期130万人来到城镇， 年复一年。
28.What’s really going on?
到底是怎么回事？
29.Well, what’s going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.
如今全球各地的村庄正变得荒芜起来
30.Subsistence farming is drying up basically.
农田没人管，因为人都迁移到了城市
31.People are following opportunity into town.
城市就是机会
32.And this is why.
就这么简单
33.I used to have a very romantic idea about villages, and it’s because I never lived in one.
我曾经有一个关于村庄很浪漫的看法， 这是因为我从来没有在村庄居住过。
34.(Laughter) Because in town — This is the bustling squatter city of Kibera, near Nairobi — They see action. They see opportunity.
（笑声） 因为在城市 – 这是熙熙攘攘的，寮屋搭建的基贝拉城 它靠近内罗毕 – 在城市，有活动，有机会。
35.They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in back in the subsistence farm.
有现金经济交易，使得人们不愿回归到 仅能维持生计的农业耕作上
36.As you go around these places there’s plenty of aesthetics.
去到那些地方，你会发现很多美丽的景象
37.There is plenty going on.
还有很多事情发生。
38.They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.
他们是穷人，但他们高度城市化，而且他们有很强的创造性。
39.The aggregate numbers now are that basically squatters, all one billion of them, are building the urban world.
现在总人口数 基本是住寮屋的人， 他们中10亿人口正在建设他们的城市世界，
40.Which means they’re building the world.
也意味着他们正在建设新世界。
41.Personally, one by one, family by family, clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.
那是一种人与人的连结，一个接一个，一个家庭接一个家庭， 家族联系着家族，左邻右舍的。
42.They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.
他们开始举步维艰，随着时间的推移，他们取得实质性进展。
43.They even build their own infrastructure.
他们甚至建立起他们自己的基础设施。
44.Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.
首先，偷盗他们的基础设施，
45.Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.
有线电视，水，整个范围，所有都被侵占，
46.And then gradually gentrifies.
然后逐渐修复改善。
47.It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity.
贫民窟破坏繁荣，情况实际不是这样。
48.Not the working slums, they help create prosperity.
贫民窟的工作反而帮助创造繁荣。
49.So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums, it’s 1/6th of the GDP of India.
孟买，这个城市有一半的城市贫民区， 但那里却创造了印度国内生产总值的六分之一。
50.Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.
贫民窟的社会资本是高度城市化和最密集的。
51.These people are valuable as a group.
贫民窟里的人作为一个整体是最有价值的
52.And that’s how they work.
这也正是他们的组织形式
53.There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people, “Oh there’s terrible things. We’ve got to fix their housing.”
谈及贫民窟，很多人会想到 “哦，那里太糟糕了。我们必须解决他们的住房问题。”
54.It used to be, “Oh we’ve got to get them phone service.”
还有“哦，我们得让他们有电话服务。”
55.Now they’re showing us how they do their phone service.
现在，他们向我们展示他们是如何做电话服务的。
56.Famine mostly is a rural event now.
现在饥荒大多是农村的事情。
57.There are things they care about.
贫民窟的居民关心的是这些事情。
58.And this is where we can help.
而这正是我们可以帮助的方面。
59.And the nations they’re in can help.
政府也可以提供帮助。
60.And they are helping each other solve these issues.
这样互相帮助，就可以解决类似问题。
61.And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.
你去一个像孟买这样的密集贫民区。
62.You look at that lane on the right.
你看关于右边的道路。
63.And you can ask, “Okay what’s going on there?”
你会问：“那会发生什么？”
64.The answer is, “Everything.”
答案是，“一切都在发生。”
65.This is better than a mall. It’s much denser.
这比一个商场好得多。它的密度大的多。
66.It’s much more interactive.
它更互动。
67.And the scale is terrific.
规模惊人。
68.The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.
关键是，人们不是被贫困折磨，
69.These are people busy getting out of poverty just as fast as they can.
而是人们忙于拼命要摆脱贫困 尽他们所能，越快越好。
70.They’re helping each other do it.
他们互相帮助做到这一点。
71.They’re doing it through an outlaw thing, the informal economy.
他们通过非法去做的事情， 称为非正规经济。
72.The informal economy, it’s sort of like dark energy in astrophysics.
非正规经济，它好比在天体物理学里的暗能量。
73.It’s not supposed to be there, but it’s huge.
这本不应该有的，但它是巨大的。
74.We don’t understand how it works yet. But we have to.
我们还不明白它是如何运作的。但我们必须理解。
75.Furthermore, people in the informal economy, the gray economy, as time goes by, crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world.
此外，非正规经济， 或称灰色经济 里头的人 久而久之，也有可能走向犯罪。要么加入黑社会
76.Or they can join the legitimate world.
要么进入正常的法治社会
77.We should be able to make that choice easier for them to get toward the legitimate world.
我们应该可以帮助他们 使得她们更容易走进法治社会
78.Because if we don’t, they will go toward the criminal world.
因为如果我们不这样做，他们将成为黑社会的一员
79.There’s all kinds of activity.
这会有多种活动影响。
80.In Dharavi  the slum performs not only a lot of services for itself, but it performs services for the city at large.
在达拉维贫民窟不仅有 很多为自己的服务， 还为整个城市提供服务。
81.And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.
主要活动之一是这些特设学校。
82.Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers to a private, tiny, unofficial school.
家长集合钱去聘请一些地方教师 到一所小的，私人的，非官方学校教书。
83.Education is more possible in the cities. And that changes the world.
在城市，教育是更有可能的，并改变了世界。
84.So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.
所以你看到一些有趣的，典型的，城市的东西。
85.So one thing slammed up against another, such as in Sao Paulo here.
贫民窟和富人区分别开来， 例如在圣保罗这里。
86.That’s what cities do. That’s how they create value, is by slamming things together.
这就是城市所创造的价值， 有机地融合起来。
87.In this case, supply right next to demand.
在这种情况下，供应需求紧密相连。
88.So the maids and the gardeners and the guards that live in this lively part of town on the left walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.
就如，在这个城市左边，有着活生生的生活。 这里生活的女佣、园丁和警卫人员 步行到一个枯燥，富有的邻居家工作。
89.Proximity is amazing.
邻近性是惊人的。
90.We are learning about how dense proximity can be.
我们正在研究这密集邻近性。
91.Connectivity between the city and the country is what’s going to keep the country good.
城市和国家之间的邻近连接， 会使国家变好趋于完善。
92.Because the city has interesting ways of doing things.
因为城市有很多有趣方法。
93.This is what makes cities — (Applause) This is what makes cities so green in the developing world.
这可以使城市– （鼓掌） 这可以使发展中世界的城市变得更加绿色环保。
94.Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster of subsistence farms, and head to town.
因为人们要摆脱贫困陷阱，一个赖以生存的农业生态灾难 而奔往城市。
95.And when they’re gone the natural environment starts to come back very rapidly.
而当他们离开农村后，自然环境 开始很快恢复。
96.And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops to send food to the new growing markets in town.
而那些留在乡村的人可以用金钱买卖作物 送食物到新兴增长的城市市场。
97.So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road, or with a good cellphone connection. And ideally some grid electrical power.
所以，如果你想保留一个村庄，你得有良好的道路， 或有好的手机连接信号。最好配有一些电网电力。
98.So the event is, we’re a city planet. That just happened.
我们都在地球城市生活。这情况转变
99.More than half.
已超过一半城市化。
100.The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.
这些数字是相当大的。 现在10亿人生活在城市的寮屋。
101.Another billion is expected.
未来还将有10亿人要搬到城市
102.That’s more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.
这超过六分之一的人们以他们的方式生活着。
103.And that will determine a lot of how we function.
这将影响很大。
104.Now, for us environmentalists, maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.
现在，对于我们这些环保主义者来说， 也许城市最环保的一点就是城市使得人口炸弹延迟引爆
105.People get into town.
人们进入城市。
106.The immediately have fewer children.
马上就想到不去生那么多孩子。
107.They don’t even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,
他们甚至还没有富起来。要在城市求得生存 就意味着少生优生
108.and the birthrate goes down radically.
出生率于是急剧下降
109.Very interesting side effect here, here’s a slide from Phillip Longman.
还有其他有趣的副作用在发生 这是菲利普朗曼的一个幻灯片，
110.Shows what is happening.
显示正在发生的事情。
111.As we have more and more old people, like me, and fewer and fewer babies.
当我们有越来越多的老人和我一样， 越来越少的孩子出生。
112.And they are regionally separated.
它们是区域分开的。
113.What you’re getting is a world which is old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way, in the north.
你会看到 在北半球，都是些老人、老城市 在按照传统的方式来生活
114.And young people in brand new cities they’re inventing, doing new things, in the south.
而在发展中世界的新兴城市，年轻人们在创新， 做些新鲜事情。
115.Where do you think the action is going to be?
你认为这些转变将在哪发生？
116.Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.
我要转移话题了。简单谈谈气候。
117.The climate news, I’m sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse than we think, faster than we think.
我很抱歉地说，气候的消息比我们想象的恶化得厉害， 比我们所认为的变化快。
118.Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system, full of runaway positive feedbacks, hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.
气候是深刻复杂的，非线性系统， 尽是失控的正反馈， 隐藏的阈值和不可逆转的临界点。
119.Here’s just a few samples.
这有些例子。
120.We’re going to keep being surprised. And almost all the surprises are going to be bad ones.
我们会很惊讶。几乎所有的 惊讶都是坏消息。
121.From your standpoint this means great increase in climate refugees, over the coming decades.
从政府的立场来考虑，这意味着 在未来几十年 气候移民将大幅增加
122.And what goes along with that, which is resource wars and chaos wars, as we’re seeing in Darfur.
随之而来的是资源的战争 和混乱的战争， 就如我们在达尔富尔所看到的。
123.That’s what drought does.
这就是干旱造成的战争。
124.It brings carrying capacity down.
承载能力随之下降。
125.And there’s not enough carrying capacity to support the people. And then you’re in trouble.
没有足够的承载能力 支持该国人民。然后人们就有麻烦了。
126.Shift to the power situation.
好，我们再谈谈能源问题。
127.Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city, or a city planet.
基荷电力是使得一个城市 或一个城市星球运转。
128.So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity, coal, some gas, nuclear and hydro.
到目前为止，只有三种基荷电力资源， 煤炭来源，一些石油， 核能和水力发电。
129.Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.
其中，仅核能和水力发电是绿色环保的。
130.Coal is what is causing the climate problems.
煤炭是造成气候问题的原因。
131.And everyone will keep burning it, because it’s so cheap, until governments make it expensive.
因为它是如此便宜，除非政府提高燃煤发电的价格 否则每个人都会继续使用煤炭燃烧生电。