1.So I’m going to talk about two stories today.
今天我想给大家讲两个故事。
2.One is how we need to use market-based pricing to affect demand and use wireless technologies to dramatically reduce our emissions in the transportation sector.
一个是我们如何通过基于市场的定价去影响需求， 并且使用无线技术减少在运输环节的 汽车排放物。
3.And the other is that there is an incredible opportunity, if we choose the right wireless technologies, how we can generate a new engine for economic growth
另一个就是我们面临着史无前例的机遇， 如果我们能选择最合适的无线技术， 我们将会给的经济发展增添新动力，
4.and dramatically reduce C02 in the other sectors.
同时可以显著的减少二氧化碳等气体的排放。
5.I’m really scared.
我非常惶恐，
6.We need to reduce C02 emissions in ten to fifteen years by 80 percent in order to avert catastrophic effects.
因为我们需要在10到15年里减少80%的二氧化碳排放量， 以避免灾难性的后果。
7.And I’m astounded that I’m standing here to tell you that.
令我难受的是，我将在这里亲自告诉你们这些灾难。
8.What are catastrophic effects? A three-degree centigrade climate change rise that will result in 50 percent species extinction.
那些灾难性后果都是什么呢？全球气候升温3摄氏度， 将导致50%的物种灭绝。
9.It’s not a movie. This is real life.
这不是电影，现实生活中存在这种危机。
10.And I’m really worried, because when people talk about cars — which I know something about — the press, and politicians, and people in this room are all thinking,
我很担心，因为人们谈论汽车的时候 ——我对此比较了解—— 媒体、政客，包括在座的诸位都会想，
11.”Let’s use fuel-efficient cars.”
“让我们使用那些高效燃油的小轿车。”
12.If we started today, 10 years from now, at the end of this window of opportunity, those fuel-efficient cars will reduce our fossil fuel needs by four percent.
如果我们现在开始做，从现在起做10年，那么，在这段最佳时机之后， 这些高效燃油小轿车就会使人们对化石燃料的需求降低四成。
13.That is not enough.
这还不够（解决问题）。
14.But now I’ll talk about some more pleasant things.
但是，我想要谈论一些愉快的事情。
15.Here are some ways that we can make some dramatic changes.
这里有一些方法，使得我们可以作出一些有趣的改变。
16.So ZipCar is a company that I founded seven years ago, but it’s an example of something called carsharing.
七年前我建立了ZipCar公司， 其实是汽车共用的一种尝试。
17.What ZipCar does is we park cars throughout dense urban areas for members to reserve by the hour and by the day, instead of using their own car.
ZipCar在人口稠密的城市地区拥有很多会员和他们的车辆，会员可以按小时或者天 来进行汽车预定服务，用以替代使用他们自己的车子。
18.How does it feel to be a person using a ZipCar?
ZipCar的会员是如何体会这项服务的呢？
19.It means that I pay only for what I need.
其实就是只为我实际所需、所用的东西付费，
20.All these hours for a car sitting idle, I’m not paying for it.
我不必为车辆闲置的那些时间付费，
21.It means that I can choose a car exactly for that particular trip.
也就是说我可以选择一辆车以满足我某一个特定的出行需求。
22.So here’s a woman that reserved MiniMia, and she had her day.
有位女士预定了一台MiniMia，她用的非常开心。
23.I can take a BMW when I’m seeing clients.
我可以开着宝马去见客户，
24.I can drive my Toyota Element when I’m going to go on that surfing trip.
也可以换一台丰田Element去海边冲浪。
25.And the other remarkable thing is that I think it’s the highest status of car ownership.
值得一提的是，我认为这才是拥有车子的最高境界。
26.Not only do I have a fleet of cars available to me in seven cities around the world that I can have at my beck and call, but heaven forbid that I would ever maintain
只需要一个招手或者是一通电话， 我就可以在全球的七个城市里任意使用我想要的车子， 而且不需要担心车子的维护和维修，
27.or deal with the repair or have anything to do with it.
或者之类的事情。
28.It’s like the car that you always wanted, that your mom said that you couldn’t have.
这些车子都是那些你梦寐以求的，但你妈妈反对你拥有的。
29.I get all the good stuff and none of the bad.
我享受了所有的好处，而无后顾之忧。
30.So what is the social result of this?
那么社会对这个事情是如何反馈的呢？
31.The social result is that today’s ZipCar has 100,000 members driving 3,000 cars parked in 3,000 parking spaces.
事实是，ZipCar已经拥有10万多会员， 他们拥有停放在3000个停车场里的3000辆汽车。
32.Instead of driving 12,000 miles a year, which is what the average city dweller does, they drive 500 miles a year. Are they happy?
现如今平均每一个城市居民驾车的行驶里程达每年1万2千公里， 而ZipCar会员的平均行驶里程仅为每年500公里，他们能不高兴吗？
33.The company has been doubling in size every since I founded it, or greater.
自从公司创办以来，其规模已经翻了一番，甚至更多。
34.People adore the company and it’s better, you know? They like it.
人们喜欢这个公司，公司就会发展得越来越好。 人们很喜欢它。
35.So how is it that people went from the 12,000 miles a year to 500 miles?
但是，一个人是如何将他的平均行驶里程由一年1万2千公里降到只有500公里的呢？
36.It’s because they said, it’s 8 to 10 dollars an hour and 65 dollars a day.
据他们所讲，这是因为一台车一小时的费用为8到10美元，一天则为65美元。
37.If I’m going to go buy some ice cream, do I really want to spend 8 dollars to go buy the ice cream? Or maybe I’ll do without?
如果我想去买冰激凌， 我会愿意再花费额外8美元的费用吗？或者有什么方法省掉这8美元？
38.Maybe I would have bought the ice cream when I did some other errand.
也许我会在我处理其他杂事的时候顺便购买冰激凌。
39.So people really respond very quickly to it, to prices.
依据其所付出的成本，人们可以快速的衡量并做出决定。
40.And the last point I want to make is, ZipCar would never be possible without technology.
最后，我想说的是，没有技术作后盾，ZipCar是根本行不通的。
41.It required that it was completely trivial, that it takes 30 seconds to rent — to reserve a car, go get it, drive it.
ZipCar需要处理很多琐碎的事情，因为人们希望在30秒内租到想要的车子 ——从上报预定汽车开始，到得到车子，并驾车前往目的地。
42.And for me, as a service provider, I would never be able to provide you a car for an hour if the transaction cost was anything.
对于我，作为一个服务提供商， 如果交易成本是很高， 我就不能在一个小时内给客户提供一辆汽车。
43.So without these wireless technologies, this as a concept could never happen.
因此，正是得益于无线技术，ZipCar的概念才能实现。
44.So here’s another example. This company is GoLoco.
这里是另一个例子，GoLoco公司。
45.I’m launching it in three weeks.
我将会在3周内启动这个公司。
46.And I hope to do for ridesharing what I did for carsharing.
我想把汽车共享的思路运用到座位共享上。
47.This will apply for people across all of America.
这将会是面向所有美国人民的服务。
48.Today 75 percent of the trips are single-occupancy vehicles.
在当今，75%的行程是一个人进行的，
49.Yet 12 percent of trips to work are currently carpool.
仅有12%的行程是用拼车的方式来完成的。
50.And I think that we can apply social networks and online-payment systems to completely change how people feel about ridesharing and make that trip much more efficient.
我想我们可以通过完善社会网络通信系统以及在线支付系统 来实现座位共享， 让我们的行程更加高效。
51.And so when I think about the future, people will be thinking that sharing the ride with someone is this incredibly great social event out of their day.
我所设想的未来场景就是， 人们通常会认为和某些人拼车 是他们社会体系里不可或缺的一部分。
52.You know, how did you get to TED? You went with other TEDsters.
设问一下，你是通过什么途径知道的TED呢？你和那些喜欢TED的人们相互交流。
53.How fabulous. Why would you ever want to go by yourself in your own car?
这是很酷的。那么你为什么还会亲自驾车去某个地方呢？
54.How did you go food shopping? You went with your neighbor, what a great social time.
你如何去购买日常的食品？通常你会和邻居一起去，这将是一件多么美妙的事情！
55.You know it’s going to really transform how we feel about travel.
这一切将会变革我们传统意义上出行的观念。
56.And it will also, I think, enhance our freedom of mobility.
它的确会，我认为，它将会加强流动的自主性。
57.Where can I go today and who can I do it with?
现如今，我能到达什么地方以及我可以和谁一起去呢？
58.Those are the types of things that you will look at and feel.
这些都是你需要面对的事情，
59.And the social benefits.
同时还要考虑社会利益问题。
60.The rate of single-occupancy vehicles is, I told you, 75 percent; I think we can get that down to 50 percent.
单人出行的概率是75%； 我觉得我们可以将之降低到50%。
61.The demand for parking, of course, is down, congestion, and the CO2 emissions.
对停车位的需求会相应的减少，同时还有拥挤程度以及二氧化碳的排放量。
62.One last piece about this, of course, is that it is enabled by wireless technologies.
这一切能够实现的基础就是无线技术。
63.And it’s the cost of driving that’s making people want to be able to do this.
人们之所以期望如此，关键还是成本。
64.The average American spends 19 percent of their income on their car.
平均每个美国人在他们车子的花费占他们收入的19%。
65.And there’s a pressure for them to reduce that cost, yet they have no outlet today.
这也是他们降低成本的动力，而且他们也没有别的出路。
66.So the last example of this is congestion pricing, very famously done in London, when you charge a premium for people to drive on congested roads.
最后一个例子是关于高峰期行车收费，在伦敦已经做得相当不错， 当你在高峰路段行驶的时候需要额外收费。
67.In London, the day they turned the congestion pricing on, there was a 25 percent decrease in congestion overnight.
在伦敦，白天的时候需要征收额外的高峰路段费用， 晚上的时候就会有四分之一的降价。
68.And that’s persisted for the four years in which they’ve been doing congestion pricing.
现如今这项政策已经实施有四年了。
69.And again, do people like the outcome?
人们对这项政策的效果满意吗？
70.Ken Livingston was reelected.
伦敦市长肯·利文斯通顺利赢得了连任。
71.So again, we can see that price plays an enormous role in peoples’ willingness to reduce their driving behavior.
因此，值得注意的是，价格在人们考虑削减自驾出行的过程中 充当了极为重要的角色。
72.We’ve tripled the miles we drive since 1970 and doubled them since 1982.
现在人们出行的里程数是1970年时的三倍、1982年的二倍。
73.There’s a huge slack in that system.
这个系统里面有很大的疏漏。
74.With the right pricing we can undo that.
通过合适的定价就可以弥补其中的不足。
75.Congestion pricing is being discussed in every major city around the world and is — again — wirelessly enabled.
全球几个重要的城市都探究过拥挤定价的问题， 当然，借助的是无线技术。
76.You weren’t going to put tollbooths around the city of London and open and shut those gates.
我们不会在伦敦的周边建立收费站， 通过开启和关闭这些出口来控制拥挤的交通。
77.And what congestion pricing is, is that it’s a technology trial and a psychological trial for something called road pricing.
高峰期行车收费是一项技术测试和心理测试， 也就是通常耳闻的道路收费。
78.And road pricing is where we’re all going to have to go.
道路收费往往出现在那些我们不得不去的地方。
79.Because today we pay for our maintenance and wear and tear on our roads with gas taxes.
当今社会中，政府通过征收汽油税进行 道路的维护和保养。
80.And as we get our cars more fuel-efficient, that’s going to be reducing the amount of revenue you get off of those gas taxes, so we need to charge people by the mile that they drive.
如果我们能降低汽车的油耗， 就会相应的减少你所需缴纳的燃油税， 因此我们需要按照驾驶人实际行驶的里程进行征税。
81.Whatever happens with congestion pricing is that those technologies will be happening with road pricing.
与道路收费相关的最多因素就是那些 将会用之于道路收费的技术。
82.Why do we travel too much?
我们为什么要做如此多的出行呢？
83.Car traveling is underpriced and therefore over-consumed.
驾车旅行是非常廉价的，也是被过度消费的。
84.We need to put this better market feedback.
我们需要更好的市场反馈。
85.And if we have it, you’ll decide how many miles to drive, what mode of travel, where to live and work.
如果我们能将这个设想实现，你就可以自主决定行驶的里程数、 旅行的方式以及居住地和工作地等。
86.And wireless technologies make this real-time loop possible.
无线技术让这种实时循环得以实现。
87.So I want to move now to the second part of my story, which is, when are we going to start doing this congestion pricing? Road pricing is coming.
现在我想开始介绍我故事的第二部分， 就是，我们该在什么时机开始 高峰期行车收费呢？道路收费已经濒临。
88.When are we going to do it? Are we going to wait ten to 15 years for this to happen?
我们该什么时候开始着手呢？我们是否需要 再等待个15年呢？
89.Or are we going to finally have this political will to make it happen in the next two years?
抑或者是在两年内就开展这项政策？
90.Because I’m going to say, that’s going to be the tool to turn our usage overnight.
我预言，这项政策将会在一夜间改变我们对汽车的使用方式。
91.And what kind of wireless technology are we going to use?
我们将会使用什么样的无线技术呢？
92.This is my big vision.
这就是我的大设想。
93.There is a tool that can help us bridge the digital divide, respond to emergencies, get traffic moving, provide a new engine for economic growth
有种工具可以帮助我们弥合数字鸿沟， 应对紧急情况，使交通畅顺， 为经济增长添加新引擎，
94.and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions in every sector.
同时大大降低二氧化碳的排放量。
95.And this is a moment from “The Graduate.” Do you remember this moment?
这是来自“研究所”的一幕，不知道大家还记得不？
96.You guys are going to be the handsome young guy, and I’m going to be the wise businessman.
你们将会是年轻帅气的年轻人， 而我则是一名聪明的商人。
97.”I want to say one word to you, just one word.”
“我只想对你说一句话，就一句话。”
98.”Yes, sir?” “Are you listening?” “Yes I am.”
“好的，先生？”“你在听吗?”“是的，我在听。”
99.”Ad-hoc peer-to-peer self-configuring wireless networks.”
”临时的点对点自组网无线网络。”
100.(Laughter) These are also called mesh networks.
（笑声） 被称为多跳网络。
101.And in a mesh, every device contributes to, and expands, the network, and I think you might have heard a little bit about it before.
在一个多跳网络中，每一台设备都是网络的组成单元，从而使得网络得以扩张， 大家之前对此一定有所耳闻。
102.I’m going to give you some examples.
我这里会给大家展示一些例子。
103.You’ll be hearing later today from Alan Kay.
你们将会在AlanKay那里听到更详细的内容。
104.These laptops, when a child opens them up, they communicate with every single child in the classroom, within that school, within that village.
这些笔记本电脑，当一个小孩子启动它时， 同一个教室里的电脑之间就会相互链接并开始发送和接收信息， 范围可以扩展到整个学校，甚至整个乡镇。
105.And what is the cost of that communication system?
而这套通讯系统的成本是多少呢？
106.Zero dollars a month.
每月0美元。
107.Here’s another example. In New Orleans, video cameras were mesh-enabled so they could monitor crime in the downtown French Quarter.
这是另一个例子。在新奥尔良， 监视器之间被用无线网络链接在了一起， 因此，人们就可以监视在市中心的法国区的社会治安状况。
108.When the hurricane happened, the only communication system standing was the mesh network.
当飓风来临时， 仅存的通讯系统就是这种多跳网络。
109.Volunteers flew in and added a whole bunch of devices.
有很多的志愿者加入到了其中，贡献了一大堆的设备。
110.And for the next 12 months, mesh networks were the only wireless that was happening in New Orleans.
在接下来的一年当中， 多跳网络将会成为新奥尔良地区唯一的无线网络。
111.Another example is in Portsmouth, UK.
另一个例子在英国的朴次矛斯。
112.They mesh-enabled 300 buses. And they can speak to these smart terminals you can look at the terminal and be able to see precisely where your bus is on the street,
人们将300辆公交车用无线连接起来。人们可以和那些智能终端对话， 你可以看到智能终端上的信息， 并从中获知你所要乘坐的公交车的位置。
113.and when it’s coming, and you can buy your tickets in real time.
当车子驶过来的时候，你就能实时买到车票。
114.Again, all mesh-enabled. Monthly communication cost: zero.
值得强调的是，所有的多跳网络，每月的成本都是零。
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
