1.I’ve got apparently 18 minutes to convince you that history has a direction — an arrow.
我大概有18分钟的时间 来说服你们历史发展是有方向的—如一个箭头。
2.That in some fundamental sense, it’s good; that the arrow points to something positive.
本质上来说，这是个好事。 箭头指向着一些积极的事物。
3.Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk — (Laughter) — that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting.
当初TED来找我做个乐观的演讲 （笑声） — 那时穆斯林还没有在世界各地引发暴乱
4.It was before the avian flu had reached Europe.
禽流感还未登录欧洲
5.It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election, eliciting various counter-measures by Israel.
哈马斯还未赢得巴勒斯坦大选 以色列也还未对之采取一系列对抗政策
6.And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk that even as I was giving the upbeat talk, the apocalypse would be unfolding —
说实话，如果当初接受邀请时 我能预见知道现在 老天还没打开启示录的话
7.(Laughter) — I might have said, “Is it okay if I talk about something else?”
（笑声） 我也许会说，“我能不能说点别的？”
8.But I didn’t, OK. So we’re here. I’ll do what I can. I’ll do what I can.
不过我当时没说，那么好吧，我只能尽力试试看了。
9.I’ve got to warn you: the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle, sometimes even elusive.
我必须先警告你们 我世界观的积极意义很难被理解 甚至可以说是晦涩难懂
10.(Laughter) The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring — I mean, there’s always been a kind of a certain grim dimension to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration —
（笑声） 当我说：“我可以变得很乐观“， 我想，我尝试去乐观这件事 本来就带着点悲观色彩，所以-
11.(Laughter) — if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I’m afraid, the most you can hope for. OK, today — that’s if I succeed.
（笑声） –如果“悲观的乐观主义精神“不算自相矛盾的话，恐怕 这就是今天你们可以从我这儿得到的，最乐观的东西了。
12.I’ll see what I can do. OK?
我会尽力的。
13.Now, in one sense, the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial.
首先， 历史发展有一定方向性这个观点，不会引起太多异议。
14.If you’re just talking about social structure, OK, clearly that’s gotten more complex a little over the last 10 thousand years — has reached higher and higher levels.
比如我们来看看社会的结构 很显然，在过去的一万年里 社会结构越来越复杂，也越来越高级
15.And in fact, that’s actually sustaining a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK, that biological evolution was doing for us.
事实上， 这个远期的趋势在人类出现之前就定好了 这是生物进化的客观规律所决定的
16.Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell, then cells start hanging out together in societies.
生命起源，从一个细胞开始， 然后细胞们逐渐成群结队了
17.Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms, then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
最后它们彼此亲近，构成了多细胞组织 然后有了更复杂些的多细胞组织；这可以理解为社群的一种形式。
18.But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution.
某个时间点，某一个多细胞组织 发生了一些奇妙的事情 启动了一种全新的进化过程：文化进化。
19.And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity.
更奇妙的是，这种进化所遵循的轨迹 与生物进化是一致的—越来越复杂
20.By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas.
文化进化，是指思想的演化过程。
21.A lot of you have heard the term “memes.” The evolution of technology, I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know, one of the first things you got was a little hand axe.
你们中的很多人都听说过“文化基因“这个词。 一直以来，我还很关注技术进化， 我们从一把小小的斧片开始，
22.Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don’t we put it on a stick?
代代相传，直到某人说，我们为什么不把斧片安在棍子上呢？
23.(Laughter) Just absolutely delights the little ones.
（笑声） 这大大方便了那些个子比较矮的人。
24.Next best thing to a video game.
另一个例子，电视游戏。
25.This may not seem to impress, but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years, and armaments technology takes you here.
看上去它好像没什么了不起的。 但是技术进化是一个持续的过程，所以过了一两万年， 到今天，我们拥有了强大的武器装备。
26.(Laughter) Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up, so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK.
（笑声） 技术进化也是一个加速进化， 所以再过250年，我们有了这个。
27.(Laughter) And this.
（笑声） 还有这个。
28.(Laughter) I’m sorry — it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse,
（笑声） 不好意思–这个笑话很冷，我只是 想找到一种解释默示录的方法，
29.and I thought that might do it.
我以为讲些笑话能有些帮助。
30.(Applause) OK. So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse, is the collapse of global social organization.
（掌声） 当今世界社会体系的崩溃， 冥冥中预示着默示录的秘密
31.Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are, to be on the brink of true global social organization.
首先，我们来看看，世界上的社会体系 是如何演化到今天的样子的。
32.Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village.
起初，是一个复杂的、靠狩猎与采集维生的村落。
33.Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom, which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity with centralized rule.
然后是酋长社会，代表遗迹—巨石阵， 在酋长社会，出现了农业，这是一种 有中央集权的多村落群体制。
34.With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you
随着书写的发明，城市出现了。这个关系看上去有点牵强。但是我很喜欢， 整个过程就像刚才所讲的单细胞组织的进化过程，
35.how many levels organic organization has already moved through to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
有机体经过层层演化， 才成了今天的样子。接下来的，你们一定猜到，是帝国。
36.I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds.
我必须强调一下，社会组织是不受政治界限约束的。
37.This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire.
丝绸之路，贯通了古中国与古罗马帝国。
38.So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent, even if no polity did similarly. Today, you’ve got nation states.
我们在整片亚欧大陆上看到了一致的社会属性， 即使政体不同。今天，有那么多国家，
39.Point is, there’s obviously collaboration and organization going on beyond national bounds.
但很显然，各种组织与合作蓬勃发展着， 超越了国界。
40.This is actually just a picture of the earth at night, and I’m just putting it up because I think it’s pretty.
这张图片显示了深夜里地球的样子， 我认为它非常漂亮，
41.Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
传递着一种整体感。
42.OK. Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something called non-zero sumness.
现在，我要用“非零和效应“ 来解释这类演化。
43.Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly, the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations
考虑到有些人可能没有看过阅读资料， 在零和博弈中，博弈者的关系是对立的：
44.are inverse: always a winner and a loser.
一个赢家，一个输家。
45.Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK.
而非零和博弈，这种关系可以是双赢的。
46.So like in tennis, usually it’s win-lose, it always adds up to zero-zero-sum, but if you’re playing doubles, the person on your side of the net, they’re in the same boat as you,
就像在网球赛中，通常是有输赢的， 比分总是零和的，但是在双打赛中， 你的搭档，与你站在同一战线，
47.so you’re playing a non-zero-sum game with them.
因此你与你的搭档之间，是一种非零和游戏。
48.It’s either for the better or for the worse, OK.
你们总是有福同享，有难同当。
49.A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
在经济学领域，非零和博弈 往往会带来合作。
50.The argument I make is basically that, well, non-zero-sum games have always been part of life.
我想说的是， 非零和博弈始终是我们生活的一部分。
51.You have them in hunter-gatherer societies, but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games,
在人类采集狩猎的时代，就有非零和博弈。 然而随着技术进步，新的技术不断兴起， 促进了非零和博弈的发生。
52.involving more people over larger territory.
参与其中的博弈者，其分布也越来越广。
53.Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know, and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don’t think about
为了适应这种可能性，社会的结构不断改变， 来保证我们有这样的生产潜力，所以出现了你所熟知的城市， 以及你所不熟知的非零和博弈，
54.that are being played across the world.
你可能并未意识到非零和博弈在世界每个角落都在发生。
55.Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car, how many people on how many different continents contributed to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect
举个例子，当你买车的时候， 你有没有想过，有多少身处各大洲的人， 涉及了这辆车的制造过程？这些相关人士，
56.you’re playing a non-zero-sum game with.
就是你进行非零和游戏的对象。
57.I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
显然，他们人数众多。
58.Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way, because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know, that’s good. Well, there are a few reasons
某种程度上来讲，这实际上是一种非常j积极乐观的世界观， 因为当你提到零和时，你所考虑的是双赢的结果， 这很不错。不过，我也认为，
59.that actually it’s not intrinsically upbeat.
本质上，它也并不是那么令人乐观。
60.First of all, it can accommodate: it doesn’t deny the existence of inequality exploitation war.
首先，它并没有否定 不平等的剥削战争的存在。
61.But there’s a more fundamental reason that it’s not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game, all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse.
还有一个更深层的原因， 因为非零和博弈， 它只能保证结果要么是都好，要么是都坏，
62.It doesn’t necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
它不能保证最后的结果是双赢的。
63.So, in a way, the question is, on what grounds am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is, first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games
那么，我到底凭什么 对整个历史进程保持乐观的态度呢？答案如下， 第一，总的来说，我认为
64.to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance, I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department.
人们总是能更多的得到双赢结果。 我认为历史进程，在非零和博弈里，净结果是正的。
65.And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me, most impresses me, and most uplifts me, which is that there is a moral dimension to history,
对这个结论，有一个最令我惊异的实际证明， 它给我留下了深刻的印象，也非常激励我： 历史进程，本身包含了一个道德维度，
66.there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
存在一个道德指向。可以看到，道德也是随着时间而发展的。
67.2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city state considered members of another Greek city state subhuman and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived,
2500年钱，希腊城邦里的人， 认为其他希腊城邦里的人，都是次等人， 用对待此等人的方式对待他们。随着道德革命的开始，
68.and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings.
他们改变了主意，所有的希腊人都是人类。
69.It’s just the Persians who aren’t fully human and don’t deserve to be treated very nicely.
只有波斯人是次等人， 不应该对他们太好了，
70.But this was progress — you know, give them credit. And now today, we’ve seen more progress. I think — I hope — most people here would say
但这至少是个进步–呵呵，给希腊人一个小表扬。今天， 这个进步就更大了。我认为–我也希望–在座的大部分人，
71.that all people everywhere are human beings, deserve to be treated decently, unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion.
都会承认，世界各地的人都是同类， 所有人都应该被平等对待， 除非他们做了令人厌恶的事情，不论什么种族什么宗教。
72.And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been, OK. This was not a prevalent view, few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic.
你应该去读读古代史，然后才能明白这是怎样一个革命。 这个观点并未被广泛接受， 我认为正式因为非零和效应，几千年前的人类，
73.I think that’s the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities, ethnicities, religions, as there is today, you know. If you asked me,
就学会了包容国籍、 种族和宗教方面的差异，这与现在的情况无异。如果你问我，
74.you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan, well, I’m only half-joking when I say they built my car, OK.
为什么我不支持向日本投放原子弹， 如果我说那是因为日本人造了我的车，那是半开玩笑的。
75.We have this non-zero-sum relationship, and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize that someone else’s welfare is positively correlated with yours.
我们之间存在一种非零和关系， 我认为，这种关系确实促进我们彼此包容， 因为其他人的福利确实与你的福利正相关。
76.You’re more likely to cut them a break.
你可能更愿意给他们一个机会。
77.I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality.
我想这是一种商务仓的道德准则。
78.Unfortunately, I don’t fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough to know, or any other kind of business class really.
不幸的是，我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商务仓， 也真不太了解其他航空公司的商务仓了。
79.But I assume that in business class, you don’t hear many expressions of, you know, bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups, because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class
我暂且认定，在商务仓，你不会听到太多 关于种族的偏执言论， 因为坐商务仓的人，
80.are doing business with all these people; they’re making money off of all these people. And I really do think that in that sense at least,
与各种各样的人进行交易； 他们只想从这些人手里赚钱。因此我认为，至少在这个层面，
81.capitalism has been a constructive force, and more fundamentally, it’s a non-zero-sumness that has been a constructive force in expanding people’s realm
资本主义是一股有助益的力量， 它是非零纯和的， 它帮助人们扩张了
82.of moral awareness, OK. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic, which is not only economic by any means — it’s not always commerce — but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth,
道德意识的领域。我认为非零和机制， 不只是说经济–任何事都不能只归到经济利益– 非零和机制带领我们逼近了道德真相的边缘，
83.which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that.
那就是人人平等。
84.As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization it has driven us toward moral truth.
当我们进入一个全球层面的社会机构， 我们必须面对道德真相。
85.I think that’s wonderful.
这太棒了。
86.Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse.
现在，回到那本未开启的启示录。
87.And you may wonder, OK, that’s all fine, sounds great — moral direction in history — but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all,
好吧，你可能会好奇， 听起来不错–历史的道德维度– 但是怎么解释那些不同文明之间的冲突？首先，
88.I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework, OK. If you look at the relationship between the so-called Muslim world and Western world —
我要强调一下，这些冲突的发生也是符合非零和机制的， 如果我们仔细看看 所谓的穆斯林世界与西方世界的关系–
89.two terms I don’t like, but can’t really avoid — in such a short span of time, they’re efficient if nothing else.
这两个词是我不喜欢用的，但是又无法避免使用它们– 在这么短的时间内，没什么比这两个词更高效了。
90.It is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean, if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful, less happy with their place in the world,
这个关系是非零和的。我是说， 如果穆斯林世界的人怀着更多的敌意、更多的憎恨， 对他们在世界上的位置更不满意，
91.it’ll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it’ll be good for the West.
这对西方世界来说，也是不利的。反之，如果他们更快乐，对西方世界也是有益处的。
92.So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
所以这是一种非零和机制。
93.And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way.
这种机制，会因为科技的发展趋势， 这种非零和机制，会向负面方向进行的越来越激烈。
94.It’s the down-side correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.
他们未来的命运，将越来越可能呈现负面的相关性。
95.And one reason is because of something I call the growing lethality of hatred.
我称其为憎恨的破坏性积累效应。
96.More and more, it’s possible for grassroots hatred abroad to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil.
基层草根很有可能以在美国发动更频繁的、有组织的暴力 来发泄他们对异族的强烈憎恨。
97.And that’s pretty new, and I think it’s probably going to get a lot worse — this capacity — because of trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used
我认为这种状况很有可能继续恶化， –我之所以这么说– 是因为信息技术的迅猛发展，
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
