1.Well, good morning.
大家早上好
2.You know, the computer and television both recently turned 60, and today I’d like to talk about their relationship.
你们都知道 电脑和电视都接近60岁了 而今天我很想跟大家谈谈他们之间的关系
3.Despite their middle-age, if you’ve been following the themes of this conference or the entertainment industry, it’s pretty clear that one has been picking on the other.
尽管他们已经到中年了 但如果你读懂这次的主题 在本次讲座或者娱乐工业中 很明显他们中的一个正侵蚀着另外一个
4.So it’s about time that we talked about how the computer ambushed television.
所以现在是时候我们来谈谈电脑是如何侵蚀着电视的
5.Or, why the invention of the atomic bomb unleashed forces that lead to the writers’ strike.
或者 为什么原子弹的发明 带来的压力会导致作家的罢工
6.And it’s not just what these are doing to each other, but it’s what the audience thinks that really frames this matter.
这并不是他们相互之间斗争 但这是观众想确实存在的事情
7.To get a sense of this, and it’s been a theme we’ve talked about all week, I recently talked to a bunch of tweeners.
来明白这一点 这是一个星期以来我们一直谈论的事 最近我跟很多中立者谈过
8.I wrote on cards, television, radio, MySpace, Internet PC.
我在卡纸上写着 电视 广播 MySpace 和上网电脑
9.And I said, just arrange these, from what’s important to you and what’s not, and then tell me why.
然后我说 排列这些词语 根据哪些对你说是重要的 哪些不是 然后解释给我听原因
10.Let’s listen to what happens when they get to the portion of the discussion on television.
来听听什么事情发生 当他们来到 谈论电视的这一部分
11.Video: Well, I think it’s important but, like, not necessary because you can do a lot of other stuff with your free time than watch programs.
视频：我觉得这是很重要的 不过不是必须的 因为当你有空的时候 比起看电视 你还有更多的东西要做
12.Which is more fun? Internet or TV?
你觉得哪个更有意思？因特网还是电视？
13.Internet.
因特网
14.I think we, the reasons, one of the reasons we put computer before TV is because nowadays, like, we have TV shows on the computer.
我想这就是我们为什么把互联网摆在电视前 因为现在 例如 我们可以把电视节目放在电脑里放
15.Oh, yes.
噢 是的
16.And then you can download onto your iPod.
你也可把它下载到你的iPod
17.Would you like to be the president of a TV network?
你想不想成为一个电视网的总裁呢？
18.I wouldn’t like it.
我不想
19.That would be so stressful.
那压力太大了
20.No.
没有
21.How come?
为什么这样想呢
22.Because they’re going to lose all their money eventually.
因为他们最终都会损失很多金钱
23.Like the stock market, it goes up and down and stuff.
就像股票市场一样 他们会升 会跌诸如此类
24.I think right now the computers will be at the top and everything will be kind of going down and stuff.
我想现在电脑是在位置最高 而其每一样东西都会跌这样
25.Peter Hirshberg: There’s been an uneasy relationship between the TV business and the tech business, really ever since they both turned about 30.
Peter Hirshberg:这就是电视产业 和这个技术产业 真的他们就要快三十岁了
26.We go through periods of enthrallment, followed by reactions in boardrooms in the finance community best characterized as, what’s the finance term? Ick pooey.
我们都曾经历沉迷的时代 跟随着在金融团体的会议室中的反应 那个金融的词语能最贴切去形容呢？Ick pooey
27.Let me give you an example of this. The year is 1976, and Warner buys Atari because video games are on the rise.
让我给你们一些例子。这是1976年 华纳想收购Atari 因为当时视频游戏正处于上升时期
28.The next year they march forward and they introduce Qube, the first interactive cable TV system, and the New York Times heralds this
接下辖的一年 他们继续向前迈进 他们引入了Qube 这是第一个有线互动电视系统 而纽约时报也报道了它
29.as telecommunications moving to the home, convergence, great things are happening.
就好像电子通信进入每家每户一样 融合 伟大的事情正发生着
30.Everybody in the East Coast gets in the pictures, Citicorp, Penney, RCA all getting into this big vision.
每一个住在东部海边的人都拍进画面中 花旗 彭尼和美国无线电公司也出现在这个如此巨大的画面中
31.By the way, this is about when I enter the picture.
随便来说，这正是我走进时代背景的时候。
32.I’m going to do a summer internship at Time Warner.
我打算到时代华纳做暑期工
33.That summer I’m all — I’m at Warner that summer — I’m all excited to work on convergence, and then the bottom falls out.
那个夏天 我基本上都呆在华纳 我很兴奋能做一些融合的东西 但接下来就垮台了
34.Doesn’t work out too well for them, they lose money.
运行效果不是很好 他们在亏本
35.And I had a happy brush with convergence until, kind of, Warner basically has to liquidate the whole thing.
我很高兴能得到这次聚合的洗礼 知道 华纳虽然根本上清算这件事
36.That’s when I leave graduate school, and I can’t work in New York on kind of entertainment and technology because I have to be exiled to California where the remaining jobs are,
之后我毕业离开了学校 但我不能在纽约工作 在这种娱乐和技术下 因为我不得不来到加州 去寻找那里剩余的工作
37.almost to the sea, to go to work for Apple Computer.
几乎穿洋过海 最终我到了苹果公司工作
38.Warner of course, writes off more than 400 million dollars.
华南因为这次损失了四亿的美金
39.400 million dollars, which was real money back in the ’70s.
四亿的美金 在70年代是一个大数目
40.But they were onto something and they got better at it.
但他们已经有所成绩 并且越来越好
41.By the year 2000 the process was perfected. They merged with AOL, and in just four years managed to shed about 200 billion dollars of market capitalization, showing that they’d actually mastered the art
在2000年他们发展很好。他们并购了AOL 用了4年的时间改进管理 他们赚了2万亿的美金 根据市场走势 他们正确确实掌握这个艺术
42.of applying Moore’s Law of successive miniaturization to their balance sheet.
成功应用了摩尔定律 制造了微型的成功应用了摩尔定律 制造了 他们的微型资产负债表
43.(Laughter) Now, I think that one reason that the media and the entertainment communities, or the media community, is driven so crazy by the tech community
（笑声） 现在，我想媒体和娱乐机构 或者媒体集团做出这样的原因是他们被技术组织驱使得太疯狂了
44.is that tech folks talk differently.
技术人员谈论的是不同的东西
45.You know, for 50 years we’ve talked about changing the world, about total transformation.
你知道，这50年来 我们一直在谈论改变世界 这是关于转变的问题
46.For 50 years it’s been about hopes and fears and — and promises of a better world, and I got to thinking, you know, who else talks that way?
这50年里充满了希望和恐惧 和承诺创造一个更好的世界 我想 你知道 谁会这样说
47.And the answer is pretty clearly, it’s people in religion and in politics.
答案是非常清楚的 对于那些信仰宗教和从事政治的人说
48.And so I realized that actually the tech world is best understood, not as a business cycle but as a messianic movement.
我意识到技术的世界是最容易理解的 这不是一个商业循环 而是一个救世运动
49.We promise something great, we evangelize it, we’re going to change the world, it doesn’t work out too well, and so we actually go back to the well and start all over again,
我们承诺某些伟大的东西，我们传道这些 我们要改变世界 但是结果不是很好 我们只好重新回到起点 再重新开始
50.as the people in New York and L.A. look on in absolute morbid astonishment.
就像在纽约和洛杉矶的人一样 看上去绝对的病态惊讶
51.But it’s this irrational view of things that drives us on to the next thing.
这个很无理的观点是驱使我们注意到另外一个事物上
52.So, what I’d like to ask, is if the computer is becoming a principal tool of media and entertainment, how did we get here?
因此 我喜欢去问 如果电脑便成为 媒体和娱乐工具，这是怎样变成这样的？
53.I mean, how did a machine that was built for accounting and artillery morph into media?
我的意思是 一个本来是为了计算 和改变大炮发射的机器怎会进入到媒体的圈子里？
54.Of course, the first computer was built just after World War II to solve military problems, but things got really interesting just a couple of years later, 1949 with Whirlwind.
当然 第一部电脑就是建在刚刚二战之后 来解决军队的问题， 但事情却在 几年之后变得有趣 在1949旋风式的速度
55.Built at MIT’s Lincoln lab, Jay Forester was building this for the navy but you can’t help but see that the creator of this machine had in mind
建设了MIT的林肯试验室，Jay Forester为海军建造了它 但你情不自禁地想象着这个创新的机器会是怎样的呢
56.a machine that might actually be a potential media star.
一部机器竟然成为了媒体的明日之星
57.So take a look at what happens when the foremost journalist of early television meets one of the foremost computer pioneers, and the computer begins to express itself.
接下来我们看看当一个资深的电视界记者 遇上了最早的电脑发展人士 然后电脑开始解释自己
58.Video: It’s a Whirlwind electronic computer.
视频：这是一台Whirlwind电子电脑
59.With considerable trepidation we undertake to interview this new machine.
有着可想而知的恐惧 我们承担采访这台机器的任务
60.Hello New York, this is Cambridge.
你好纽约，这是芝加哥
61.And this is the oscilloscope of the Whirlwind electronic computer.
而这是Whirlwind电脑的示波器
62.Would you like if I used the machine?
如果我用这台机器 你是否愿意呢？
63.Yes, of course. But I have an idea, Mr. Forrester.
那当然。不过我有一个主意，Mr.Forrester
64.Since this computer was made in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research, why don’t we switch down to the Pentagon in Washington
自从这台电脑制造以后 一直与海军研究所保持协议 为什么不在华盛顿的五角大楼使用它
65.and let the Navy’s research chief, Admiral Bolster, give Whirlwind the workout.
让海军的研究所所长， 海军将领Bolster 拿出Whirlwind做实验
66.Well, Ed, this problem concerns the navy’s Viking rocket.
好，Ed，这个问题主要关心的海军的维京盗火箭
67.This rocket goes up 135 miles into the sky.
这个火箭可以上升到135米的半空中
68.Now, at the standard rate of fuel consumption, I would like to see the computer trace the flight path of this rocket and see how it can determine, at any instant,
现在，我们燃油消费标准 我很愿意通过电脑来看火箭的飞行线路 来看看他怎样决定的，在任何时刻
69.say at the end of 40 seconds, the amount of fuel remaining, and the velocity at that set instant.
说在最后40秒，剩下燃油的总量 在那瞬间的速率
70.Over on the left-hand side you will notice fuel consumption decreasing as the rocket takes off.
在左手边 你可以看到燃油在火箭升空后一路减少
71.And on the right-hand side there’s a scale that shows the rocket’s velocity.
在右手边，有一个标杆 可以指示火箭的速度
72.The rocket’s position is shown by the trajectory that we’re now looking at.
火箭的位置可以通过轨迹来展示 我们现在可以看到
73.And as it reaches the peak of its trajectory, the velocity, you will notice, has dropped off to a minimum.
我们看到它到达了他弹道的顶点 速度，你可以注意的到，它变成了一个很小的数字
74.Then as the rocket dives down, velocity picks up again toward a maximum velocity and the rocket hits the ground.
当火箭向下将多的时候，速度又会增加起来 当火箭掉回到地上 速度是最大的
75.How’s that?
这是什么呢？
76.What about that, Admiral?
将军，你有什么想法
77.Looks very good to me.
看上去真的很不错
78.And before leaving we would like to show you another kind of mathematical problem that some of the boys have worked out in their spare time in a less serious vein for a Sunday afternoon.
所以在离开之前 我们想向你们展示另一种 小伙子们解决的数学问题 在某个空闲的时间 一个较为轻松的周日下午
79.Thank you very much indeed, Mr. Forrester and the MIT lab.
实在太感谢你们。Mr.Forrester 和 the MIT实验室
80.PH: You know, so much was worked out. The first real-time interaction, the video display, pointing a gun. It lead to the micro-computer,
你看，成就这么多。第一时间反应 这个视频展示， 指着一根枪。它只是着一个台微型电脑
81.but unfortunately it was too pricey for the Navy, and all of this would have been lost if it weren’t for a happy coincidence.
不过很不幸 它对于海军来说实在太昂贵了 所有的这些都可能被失去 如果他们不是为了一个和谐的事情一起
82.Enter the atomic bomb.
原子弹踏上了时代的舞台
83.We’re threatened by the greatest weapon ever, and knowing a good thing when it sees it the Air Force decides it needs the biggest computer ever to protect us.
现在我们已经被这个威力无限的武器威胁着 但当初出现的时候 我们知道这是一件好的事物 空军决定了它需要最强大的电脑来保护我们
84.They adapt Whirlwind to a massive air defense system, deploy it all across the frozen north and spend nearly three times as much on this computer
它适用于Whirlwind的巨大防空系统 将它部署在天寒地冻的北方 在这台电脑上花费了将近三倍的
85.as was spent on the Manhattan Project building the A-Bomb in the first place.
花在整个曼哈顿计划上的金钱 在第一个地点建造A-Bomb
86.Talk about a shot in the arm for the computer industry.
再说说这对于整个电脑工业带来的刺激
87.And you can imagine the Air Force became a pretty good salesman.
你可以想象空军会变成很好的销售人员
88.Here’s their marketing video.
这是他们的营销广告
89.Video: In a mass raid, high-speed bombers could be in on us before we could determine their tracks.
视频：一个迅猛、规模庞大的炸弹袭击可能随时后发生在我们身上 但在我们判定它的轨迹的时候
90.And then it would be too late to act.
再去反应已经太迟了
91.We cannot afford to take that chance.
我们不能冒这样的风险。
92.It is to meet this threat that the Air Force has been developing SAGE, the Semi-Automatic Ground Environment system, to strengthen our air defenses.
为了应付这种威胁 空军研发了SAGE 一个半自动的地面部署系统 来加强我们的空中防御能力
93.This new computer, built to become the nerve center of a defense network, is able to perform all the complex mathematical problems involved in countering a mass enemy raid.
这个新型的电脑 将会成为我们这个防御系统的中枢神经 能够演算各种复杂的电脑运算 包括可以预计敌人大规模的袭击
94.It is provided with its own powerhouse containing large diesel-driven generators, air-conditioning equipment, and cooling towers required to cool the thousands of vacuum tubes in the computer.
它需要拥有一个发电室 需要一个大型的柴油发电机 空气调节设备 和一个冷却塔 来降低电脑中数以千计的电子管的温度
95.PH: You know, that one computer was huge.
你知道，这台电脑是非常巨大的
96.There’s an interesting marketing lesson from it, which is basically when you market a product, you can either say, this is going to be wonderful,
从这里我们可以看到一堂非常有趣的营销课程 基于你怎样推销一个产品 或者你更可以说 这将会变得非常美好
97.it will make you feel better and enliven you, or there’s one other marketing proposition, if you don’t use our product, you’ll die.
让你感觉更加好 使你充满活力 或者可以从另外一个营销角度，如果你不用我们的产品，你会死掉
98.This is a really good example of that.
这真是一个非常好的例子
99.This had the first pointing device. It was distributed, so it worked out, distributed computing and modems, so all these things could talk to each other.
这是第一台定点设备。他得到了推广 并且成功了，分布式计算和调节器 所有这些东西都可以使每一个人可以互相谈话
100.About 20 percent of all the nation’s programmers were wrapped up in this thing, and it led to an awful lot of what we have today. It also used vacuum tubes.
白分之二十的国家计划都与这个东西有关 这导致了我们现在很多今天拥有的东西。当然还有电子管
101.You saw how huge it was, and to give you a sense for this, because we’ve talked a lot about Moore’s Law and making things small at this conference, so let’s talk about making things large.
你看到它是多么的庞大，它就是给你这样的感觉 因为我们之前说了太多摩尔定律使得很多东西都变得很微观 这场演讲上，我们谈谈这些东西变大吧
102.If we took Whirlwind and put it in a place that you all know, say, Century City, it would fit beautifully.
如果我们把Whirlwind放在一个地方，你就会知道 说，世纪城，这最适合不过了
103.You’d kind of have to take Century City out but it could fit in there.
不过你需要将世纪城搬出来 但或者它适合那里
104.But like, let’s imagine we took the latest Pentium processor, the latest Core 2 Extreme, which is a four-core processor that Intel’s working on, it will be our laptop tomorrow.
或者，我们想象我们拿出最新的奔腾处理器 最新酷睿2至尊版这个四核处理器 这个英特尔致力研发 它很可能会在日后用在我们笔记本电脑上
105.To build that, what we’d do with Whirlwind technology is, we’d have to take up roughly from the 10 to Mulholland, and from the 405 to La Cienega just with those Whirlwinds.
如果我们需要用Whirlwind技术达到同样的目的 我们粗略计算需要占据10条穆赫兰大道 和405个拉西埃内加就刚刚好够Whirlwinds使用了
106.And then the 92 nuclear power plants that it would take to provide the power would fill up the rest of Los Angeles.
然后需要92座核电站 用来提供电力需求 这刚好用完省下的洛杉矶的地方
107.That’s roughly a third more nuclear power than all of France creates.
粗略计算这将回3倍法国能制造的核电站发电
108.So, the next time they tell you they’re on to something, clearly they’re not.
所以 如果下次他们告诉他们正在做这样的事情，可以清晰告诉他们你们不可以
109.So, and we haven’t even worked out the cooling needs.
但，我们还没有装上我们需要的冷却装置
110.But it gives you the kind of power that people have, that the audience has, and the reasons these transformations are happening.
但它给与你没一个人拥有的力量，每一位观众能够都有的力量 这就是为什么这些转变在发生
111.All of this stuff starts moving into industry.
这些所有东西都开始向工业化进展
112.DEC kind of reduces all this and makes the first mini-computer.
DEC它简化了这些并制造了一台迷你电脑
113.It shows up at places like MIT, and then a mutation happens.
这些还出现在像MIT的这些地方，这些改变正在发生
114.Spacewar is built, the first computer game, and all of a sudden, interactivity and involvement and passion is worked out.
星球大战第一款的电脑游戏就是这样诞生 一切发生都非常突然 交互 参与和带动都一起发生
115.Actually, many MIT students stayed up all night long working on this thing, and many of the principles of gaming today were worked out.
事实上，现在很多MIT学生依然坚持日夜奋战去为这个事物工作 今天很多规则的游戏都在产生
116.DEC knew a good think about wasting time.
DEC知道一个好的想法肯定要浪费很多时间
117.It shipped every one of its computers with that game.
每一个人在他的电脑上都玩着这样的游戏
118.Meanwhile, as all of this is happening, by the mid ’50s the business model of traditional broadcasting and cinema has been busted completely.
同时，到了50年代中期 这所有东西都发生了 传统的广播和电影院商业模式 彻底的破产
119.A new technology has confounded radio men and movie moguls and they’re quite certain that television is about to do them in.
新技术使得广播从业者和电影巨头都非常困惑 他们肯定电视会帮助他们
120.In fact, despair is in the air.
事实上，广播最为绝望
121.And a quote that sounds largely reminiscent from everything I’ve been reading all week — RCA had David Sarnoff who basically commercialized radio,
引用一个例子 那些声音已经快成为回忆了 这一切都来自我一直以来读到的东西 RCA让David Sarnoff一个基本上靠商业赚钱的人
122.said this, I don’t say that radio networks must die, every effort has been made and will continue to be made to find a new pattern, new selling arrangements
说这些话，我并不会说广播网必须要破产 每一个努力的成果都在实现 并且会持续出现 去创造一个新的模式，一个新销售安排
123.and new types of programs that may arrest the declining revenues.
新型的节目将会赢回正消减中的收入
124.It may yet be possible to eke out a poor existence for radio, but I don’t know how.
这很可能会弥补现在广播存在的不足 但是我还不知道怎样做
125.And of course, as the computer industry develops interactively, producers in the emerging TV business actually hit on the same idea.
当然，电脑工业发展了互动 电视产业刚刚出来的时候也是想做同样的理念
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
