1.I think I was supposed to talk about my new book, which is called “Blink,” and it’s about snap judgments and first impressions.
我想我本该谈谈我的新书， 书名叫做《倾覆》，讲的是瞬间决定和第一印象。
2.And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate.
书在一月上市，我希望你们每人都买个两三本。
3.But I was thinking about this, and I realized that although my new book makes me happy, and I think would make my mother happy, it’s not really about happiness.
不过当我想到这里时， 我发现我的新书虽然使我很开心， 我觉得也使我妈妈很开心， 但是书本身谈的并不是快乐。
4.So I decided instead, I would talk about someone who I think has done as much to make Americans happy as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years.
因此我决定，我要谈一个人 我认为在过去的二十年里，他为了让美国人快乐 付出了比任何人都多的努力。
5.A man who is a great personal hero of mine.
他是我个人崇敬的一个伟大英雄。
6.Someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz, who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce.
他的名字是霍华德·莫斯科维茨， 一个以重新发明了意粉酱而闻名的人。
7.Howard’s about this high, and he’s round, and he’s in his sixties, and he has big huge glasses and thinning grey hair, and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality,
霍华德大概有这么高，圆圆的， 他六十多岁，戴着大大的眼镜， 头发稀疏灰白，不过他很有精神活力。
8.and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera, and he’s a great aficionado of medieval history.
他养有一只鹦鹉，他喜欢歌剧， 他还是一个中世纪历史的狂热爱好者。
9.And by profession, he’s a psychophysicist.
他的职业，是精神物理学家。
10.Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is, although at some point in my life, I dated a girl for two years who was getting
老实说，我根本不知道精神物理学是干什么的， 虽然我早年曾与一个女孩交往过两年，
11.her doctorate in psychophysics.
她当时读的就是精神物理学博士。
12.Which should tell you something about that relationship. (Laughter) As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things.
你也知道这段交往大概是怎么样的了。 据我所知，精神物理学讲的是测量事物。
13.And Howard is very interested in measuring things.
霍华德很热衷于测量事物。
14.And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard, and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York.
他还是哈佛博士毕业的， 他在纽约州白原市设立了一个小顾问公司。
15.And one of his first clients was — this is many years ago, back in the early ’70s — one of his first clients was Pepsi.
他的第一个客户是… 这是很多年前的事了，在七十年代初 他最早的客户之一是百事公司。
16.And Pepsi came to Howard and they said, “You know, there’s this new thing called aspartame, and we would like to make Diet Pepsi.
百事的人找到霍华德，说： “你看，有一样新东西叫做阿斯巴甜， 我们想要用来生产百事轻怡。
17.We’d like you to figure out how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi, in order to have the perfect drink.” Right?
我们想要你找出在每一罐百事轻怡里 放多少的阿斯巴甜，才能做出一种完美的饮料。” 对吧？
18.Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer, and that’s what Howard thought. Because Pepsi told him, “Look, we’re working with a band between eight and 12 percent.
这个问题听上去非常地容易回答， 霍华德也是这么想的。因为百事公司告诉他： “你看，我们测试的是从 8% 到 12% 之间的范围。
19.Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough, anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet.
8% 以下的甜度不够甜， 12% 以上的甜度太甜了。
20.We want to know, what’s the sweet spot between eight and 12?”
我们想要知道，8% 到 12% 之间最完美的甜度是什么？”
21.Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it’s very simple.
如果我现在把这个问题交给你，你会说：这个还不简单？
22.What we do, is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi, at every degree of sweetness — eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, all the way up to 12 — and we try this out with thousands of people,
我们只要做出一系列不同甜度的百事， 8%，8.1%，8.2,%，8.3%， 一直到 12% 为止。然后我们让几千人来品尝，
23.and we plot the results on a curve, and we take the most popular concentration. Right? Really simple.
将结果画成一个曲线图， 最后取最多人喜欢的甜度。对吧？简单得很。
24.Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back, and he plots it on a curve, and all of a sudden he realizes it’s not a nice bell curve.
霍华德做了这个实验，他拿到数据，然后画成一个曲线图， 然后他突然发现：这并不是一个漂亮的钟形曲线。
25.In fact, the data doesn’t make any sense.
事实上，这些数据根本毫无逻辑。
26.It’s a mess. It’s all over the place.
根本就是一团糟。
27.Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such, are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess.
那个行业里的大多数人，做食品测试之类的， 对于一团糟的数据并不会很在意。
28.They think, well, you know, figuring out what people think about cola’s not that easy.
他们想：你看，弄明白人们对可乐的看法不是那么简单的。
29.You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way.
你看，说不定我们中途犯了一个错误。
30.You know, let’s just make an educated guess, and they simply point and they go for 10 percent, right in the middle.
我们合理猜想一下就算了， 于是他们就随便地选定 10%，正正中央。
31.Howard is not so easily placated.
霍华德可不那么容易妥协。
32.Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards.
霍华德是一个有着相当程度学术标准的人。
33.And this was not good enough for him, and this question bedeviled him for years.
他对此并不满意， 于是这个问题困扰了他很多年。
34.And he would think it through and say, what was wrong?
他总会沉思良久，然后问：哪出错了呢？
35.Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?
为什么我们弄不明白百事轻怡的这个实验呢？
36.And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains, about to go trying to dream up some work for NescafE.
有一天，他坐在白原市的一家小餐馆里， 正准备要帮雀巢公司做一些工作。
37.And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him.
突然间，灵光一现，他找到了答案。
38.And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data, they were asking the wrong question.
那就是：他们在分析百事轻怡的数据时， 问的是一个错误的问题。
39.They were looking for the perfect Pepsi, and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis. Trust me.
他们想要寻找一种最完美的百事， 但他们要找的应当是多种完美的百事。相信我。
40.This was an enormous revelation.
这是一个巨大的启示。
41.This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science.
这是食品科学中最了不起的突破之一。
42.And Howard immediately went on the road, and he would go to conferences around the country, would stand up and he would say, “You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi. You’re wrong.
于是霍华德马上踏上了旅程， 他参加了全国各地的研讨会， 站出来说： 你们之前找的是一种最完美的百事。你们错了。
43.You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis.”
你们要找的应当是多种完美的百事。”
44.And people would look at him with a blank look, and they would say, “What are you talking about? This is craziness.”
人们面无表情地看着他，然后说： “你在胡说什么啊？神经病。”
45.And they would say, you know, “Move! Next!”
然后他们叫道：“让开！下一个！”
46.Tried to get business, nobody would hire him — he was obsessed, though, and he talked about it and talked about it and talked about it.
他四处找生意，没有人肯雇佣他… 不过他依旧痴迷于他的想法， 他不断地谈论谈论再谈论它。
47.Howard loves the Yiddish expression “to a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish.”
霍华德很喜欢一句犹太谚语： “对于一条活在辣根菜里的虫子来说，世界就是辣根菜。”
48.This was his horseradish. (Laughter) He was obsessed with it!
这就是他的辣根菜。他着迷了！
49.And finally, he had a breakthrough. Vlasic Pickles came to him, and they said, “Mr. Moskowitz — Doctor Moskowitz — we want to make the perfect pickle.” And he said,
终于，他有了一个突破。Vlasic Pickles 公司的人找到他， 他们说：“莫斯科维茨先生… 莫斯科维茨博士， 我们想要研制一种完美的酱菜。” 而他说：
50.”There is no perfect pickle, there are only perfect pickles.”
“世上没有一种最完美的酱菜，只有许多种完美的酱菜。”
51.And he came back to them and he said, “You don’t just need to improve your regular, you need to create zesty.”
他做完研究之后对他们说：“你们不单要改进你们的普通口味酱菜， 你们还要推出柑皮口味。”
52.And that’s where we got zesty pickles.
柑皮口味酱菜就是这么来的。
53.Then the next person came to him, and that was Campbell’s Soup.
下一个闻名而来的客户，是金宝汤公司。
54.And this was even more important. In fact, Campbell’s Soup is where Howard made his reputation.
这一次更了不起。事实上， 霍华德就是靠金宝汤而扬名的。
55.Campbell’s made Prego, and Prego, in the early ’80s, was struggling next to Ragu, which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the ’70s and ’80s.
金宝汤生产 Prego 牌意粉酱，在八十年代初期，Prego 和 Ragu 竞争得不相上下。 Ragu 牌意粉酱在七八十年代占据了市场主导地位。
56.Now in the industry — I don’t know whether you care about this, or how much time I have to go into this.
现在这行业里… 我不知道你是不是知道这个， 或者说我要多花些时间讲详细些。
57.But it was, technically speaking — this is an aside — Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragu.
不过，技术上来说，顺带一提， Prego 意粉酱比 Ragu 要好。
58.The quality of the tomato paste is much better, the spice mix is far superior, it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way. In fact,
番茄酱质量更好，调味料也好多了， 拌意粉吃起来更可口。事实上，
59.they would do the famous bowl test back in the ’70s with Ragu and Prego.
他们在七十年代用 Ragu 和 Prego 做过著名的面盘试验。
60.You’d have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right?
你拿一盘意粉，然后淋上意粉酱。
61.And the Ragu would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top.
Ragu 会一直渗到盘底，而 Prego 会留在上面。
62.That’s called “adherence.”
这叫做“粘稠”。
63.And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence, and the quality of their tomato paste, Prego was struggling.
言归正传，尽管他们的意粉酱更粘稠， 番茄酱的质量更好，Prego 却在挣扎求存。
64.So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us.
于是他们找到霍华德，说：帮我们。
65.And Howard looked at their product line, and he said, what you have is a dead tomato society.
霍华德看了他们的产品线，说： “你们这是个半死不活的番茄帝国。”
66.So he said, this is what I want to do.
于是他说：“我打算这么干。”
67.And he got together with the Campbell’s soup kitchen, and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce. And he varied them according to every conceivable way that you can vary tomato sauce.
他和金宝汤公司一起， 做出了45种不同口味的意粉酱。他用了 一切想象得出的变量区分出这些口味。
68.By sweetness, by level of garlic, by tartness, by sourness, by tomatoey-ness, by visible solids — my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business. (Laughter)
甜度，大蒜多少，辣度，酸度，番茄多少 还有可见固体——番茄酱行业中我最喜欢的词汇。
69.Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce, he varied spaghetti sauce.
一切你想象得出的区分意粉酱的方法，他都用尽了。
70.And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces, and he went on the road.
然后他带上这一系列45种口味的意粉酱，踏上了旅程。
71.He went to New York, he went to Chicago, he went to Jacksonville, he went to Los Angeles. And he brought in people by the truckload. Into big halls.
他去了纽约，他去了芝加哥，他去了杰克逊维尔， 他去了洛杉矶。他将一车又一车的人带进大厅里，
72.And he sat them down for two hours, and he gave them, over the course of that two hours, ten bowls.
让他们坐上两个小时，在这两个小时里， 他给每人十个盘子。
73.Ten small bowls of pasta, with a different spaghetti sauce on each one.
十小盘意粉，每盘一种不同的意粉酱。
74.And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100, how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was.
他们每吃完一盘，就打分，0 到 100， 评他们认为这意粉酱有多好。
75.At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months, he had a mountain of data about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce.
最后，在经过成年累月的工作之后， 他有了堆积如山的数据 关于美国人对意粉酱的看法。
76.And then he analyzed the data.
然后他分析这些数据。
77.Now, did he look for the most popular brand variety of spaghetti sauce? No!
他找的是一种最受欢迎的意粉酱口味吗？不是！
78.Howard doesn’t believe that there is such a thing.
霍华德不相信这东西的存在。
79.Instead, he looked at the data, and he said, let’s see if we can group all these different data points into clusters.
相反，他看着这些数据，说： “看看我们能不能将这些不同的数据点归类到不同的群集里。
80.Let’s see if they congregate around certain ideas.
看看这些群集能不能给我们一些启发。
81.And sure enough, if you sit down, and you analyze all this data on spaghetti sauce, you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups.
当然，如果你坐下仔细分析这些意粉酱的数据， 你就会发现全美国人可分为三组。
82.There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain, there are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy and there are people who like it extra chunky.
其中有喜欢一般意粉酱的人， 有喜欢辣味意粉酱的人， 还有喜欢带有额外颗粒的意粉酱的人。
83.And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant.
在这三者中，第三个发现最有价值。
84.Because at the time, in the early 1980s, if you went to a supermarket, you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti sauce.
因为当时，在八十年代早期， 如果你走进一家超市， 你找不到带有额外颗粒的意粉酱。
85.And Prego turned to Howard, and they said, “You telling me that one third of Americans crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce and yet no one is servicing their needs?” And he said yes!
于是 Prego 公司问霍华德： “你是说三分之一的美国人渴望吃上带有额外颗粒的意粉酱 但没有人满足他们的需要？” 他说是！
86.(Laughter) And Prego then went back, and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce, and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely
于是 Prego 的人回到公司， 全面重新调配了他们的意粉酱， 推出了一系列带有额外颗粒的意粉酱，
87.took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country.
迅速地全面占领了这个国家的意粉酱市场。
88.And over the next 10 years, they made 600 million dollars off their line of extra-chunky sauces.
在接下来的十年中，他们的额外颗粒系列意粉酱 带来了六亿美元的生意。
89.And everyone else in the industry looked at what Howard had done, and they said, “Oh my god! We’ve been thinking all wrong!”
这行业里其他所有人看到霍华德的成就，都说： “天哪！我们一直都想错了！”
90.And that’s when you started getting seven different kinds of vinegar, and 14 different kinds of mustard, and 71 different kinds of olive oil —
从那时起，我们就有了7种不同的醋， 14种不同的芥末酱，和71种不同的橄榄油 ─
91.and then eventually even Ragu hired Howard, and Howard did the exact same thing for Ragu that he did for Prego.
最后连 Ragu 也雇佣了霍华德， 然后霍华德帮 Ragu 做了他帮 Prego 做的一样的工作。
92.And today, if you go to the supermarket, a really good one, and you look at how many Ragus there are — Do you know how many they are? 36!
今天，如果你走进超市，一家特别好的， 你会看到 Ragu 有多少种意粉酱… 你知道有多少种吗？36！
93.In six varieties: Cheese, Light, Robusto, Rich & Hearty, Old World Traditional, Extra-Chunky Garden. (Laughter) That’s Howard’s doing. That is Howard’s gift to the American people.
六大不同的风味：奶酪，轻怡，留香， 浓郁，传统，额外颗粒。 那就是霍华德的成就。那就是霍华德给全美国人民的礼物。
94.Now why is that important?
为什么说这很重要呢？
95.It is, in fact, enormously important. I’ll explain to you why.
这的确至关重要。我会告诉你原因。
96.What Howard did is he fundamentally changed the way the food industry thinks about making you happy.
霍华德所做的事从根本上改变了食品行业里 关于如何取悦你的思维方式
97.Assumption number one in the food industry used to be that the way to find out what people want to eat — what will make people happy — is to ask them.
食品行业曾遵循的头号信条就是： 找出人们想要吃什么的方法， 找出什么能取悦人们的方法，就是问他们。
98.And for years and years and years and years, Ragu and Prego would have focus groups, and they would sit all you people down, and they would say,
年复一年，年复一年地，Ragu 和 Prego 组织小组座谈会， 他们邀请人们参加，然后问：
99.”What do you want in a spaghetti sauce? Tell us what you want in a spaghetti sauce.”
“你想要什么样的意粉酱？告诉我们你想要什么样的意粉酱。”
100.And for all those years — 20, 30 years — through all those focus group sessions, no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky.
在那么多年里，二三十年里 所有那些小组座谈会里， 从来没有人说过他们想要额外颗粒的意粉酱。
101.Even though at least a third of them, deep in their hearts, actually did.
即使是他们中至少有三分之一，在他们的内心深处，
102.(Laughter) People don’t know what they want! Right?
确实想要额外颗粒。 人们不知道他们想要什么！对吧？
103.As Howard loves to say, “The mind knows not what the tongue wants.”
如同霍华德常说的：“脑袋不知道舌头想要的是什么。”
104.It’s a mystery!
这是一个迷！
105.And a critically important step in understanding our own desires and tastes is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want deep down.
而明白我们自己的欲望和品味的关键一步 是明白我们并不能总说出我们心底想要的是什么。
106.If I asked all of you, for example, in this room, what you want in a coffee, you know what you’d say? Every one of you would say “I want a dark, rich, hearty roast.”
比如说，如果我问你们在场的所有人，你们想要怎样的咖啡， 你知道你们会怎么回答吗？你们所有人都会说：“我想要醇厚、浓郁的黑咖啡。”
107.It’s what people always say when you ask them what they want in a coffee.
当你问人们他们想要怎样的咖啡时，他们总是会这么回答。
108.What do you like? Dark, rich, hearty roast!
你喜欢什么？醇厚、浓郁的黑咖啡！
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