1.The old story about climate protection is that it’s costly, or it would have been done already.
按以前的说法，气候保护是个费钱的差事 要不然的话早就着手做了。
2.So government needs to make us do something painful to fix it.
所以政府需要我们做点牺牲来来搞定它。
3.The new story about climate protection is that it’s not costly, but profitable.
现在对气候保护有个新看法 它不仅不花钱，而且还能盈利。
4.This was a simple sign error, because it’s cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel, as is well known to companies that do it all the time —
这是一个简单的符号误差 原因就在于，省油比买油要便宜， 众所周知，很多企业也都一直这样做。
5.for example, Dupont, SD micro electronics.
比如，杜邦，SD微电子。
6.Many other firms — IBM — are reducing their energy intensity routinely 6 percent a year by fixing up their plants, and they get their money back in two or three years.
很多其他公司，像是IBM，正在降低他们的能源密集度， 通过改进他们的工厂，每年一般能减少6%的消耗 两到三年内就能收回投资。?
7.That’s called a profit.
这就是盈利。
8.Now, similarly, the old story about oil is that if we wanted to save very much of it, it would be expensive, or we would have done it already,
现在，对于石油我们有着同样的老看法。如果我们想节约石油 那就要花很多钱，要不我们早就成功了，
9.because markets are essentially perfect.
因为市场基本完善。
10.If, of course, that were true, there would be no innovation, and nobody could make any money.
当然，如果这种说法是真的，那这个世界上就不会有创新了， 也没有人能赚到钱了。
11.But the new story about oil is the government doesn’t have to force us to do painful things to get off oil — not just incrementally, but completely —
但是现在对石油有个新看法 政府不用再强迫我们来痛苦地戒掉石油 这里说的不仅是逐步减少使用，而是彻底地
12.quite the contrary. The United States, for example, can completely eliminate its use of oil and rejuvenate the economy at the same time,
在全国范围内停止使用石油。比如说，在美国 能够做到完全不用石油 还能同时促进经济发展，
13.led by business for profit, because it’s so much cheaper to save and substitute for the oil than to keep on buying it.
创造商业利润， 因为比起继续买石油，节约和寻找替代燃料 要便宜得多。
14.This process will also be catalyzed by the military for its own reasons of combat effectiveness and preventing conflict, particularly over oil.
这一过程同样需要由军队来合作加以推动 因为他们有着强大的战斗力和防止冲突的能力 尤其是在石油问题上。
15.This thesis is set out in a book called “Winning the Oil Endgame”
这个论点是在《赢下石油之战的最后博弈》中提出的
16.that four colleagues and I wrote, and have posted for free at Oilendgame.com — about 170,000 downloads so far.
这本书是我和四个同事共同编写， 而且大家可以在Oilendgame.com上找到免费资源。 目前差不多有17万人下载过。
17.And it was co-sponsored by the Pentagon — it’s independent, it’s peer-reviewed and all of the backup calculations are transparently posted for your perusal.
这本书由Pentagon监制 独立发行，经过了同行评审 所有的备份数据都是透明的，公开的，大家可以去查阅。
18.Now, a bit of economic history, I think, may be helpful here.
现在讲一点经济史，也许会对大家有所帮助。
19.Around 1850, one of the biggest US industries was whaling.
1850年左右，捕鲸是美国最大的产业之一。
20.And whale oil lit practically every building.
几乎所有建筑燃料都是鲸油。
21.But in the nine years before Drake struck oil, in 1859, at least five-sixths of that whale oil-illuminating market disappeared, thanks to fatal competitors, chiefly oil and gas made from coal,
但是在1859年，美国第一口油井开采九年之前， 由于煤油和煤气的竞争，以鲸油为燃料的照明市场受到致命打击， 至少六分之五的目标市场被抢。
22.to which the whalers had not been paying attention.
之前捕鲸者并没有注意到这些对手。
23.So, very unexpectedly, they ran out of customers before they ran out of whales.
因此，他们万万没想到，鲸鱼还能猎杀， 客户群跑光了。
24.The remnant whale populations were saved by technological innovators and profit-maximizing capitalists.
科技创新和追求最大利润的资本家救了 那些漏网鲸鱼。
25.(Laughter) And it’s funny — it feels a bit like this now for oil.
（笑~~） 并且十分有趣的是——感觉有点像现在的石油
26.We’ve been spending the last few decades accumulating a very powerful backlog of technologies for saving and substituting for oil, and no one had bothered to add them up before.
我们过去已经花了几十年的时间 积累了非常强大的技术力量 用于节约石油和探索替代燃料 在以前没人费心去探讨这些问题
27.So when we did, we found some very surprising things.
所以我们研究时就有了惊人的的发现。
28.Now, there are two big reasons to be concerned about oil.
如今，石油问题越来越突出，有两大方面。
29.Both national competitiveness and national security are at risk.
即：国家竞争力威胁和国家安全威胁。
30.On the competitiveness front, we all know that Toyota has more market cap than the big three put together.
从竞争力角度讲， 我们都知道，丰田的市场占有率比三大美国汽车商总和还高
31.And serious competition from Europe, from Korea, and next is China, which will soon be a major net exporter of cars.
还有其他强有力的竞争对手，来自欧洲的，韩国的， 接下来还会有中国，因为它很快就会成为主要的汽车净出口国。?
32.How long do you think it will take before you can drive home your new wally-badged Shanghai automotive super-efficient car?
你觉得还得用多长时间，你就会开着 上海生产的汽车回家？这种车品质一流，超级省油。
33.Maybe a decade, according to my friends in Detroit.
在底特律的朋友说，也许要十年。
34.China has an energy policy based on radical energy efficiency and leap-frog technology.
中国出台一项能源政策 该政策以全新的高效能源和跨越式的技术作为基础。
35.They’re not going to export your uncle’s Buick.
他们不会出口大排量车。
36.And after that comes India.
而之后还会有来自印度的竞争。
37.The point here is, these cars are going to be made super efficient.
关键的一点，这些车都会非常省油。
38.The question is, who will make them?
问题只是谁来制造它们。
39.Will we in the United States continue to import efficient cars to replace foreign oil, or will we make efficient cars and import neither the oil nor the cars?
我们美国会不会继续以进口节能汽车来代替进口石油 或者我们自己制造节能汽车，不再进口石油，也不再进口汽车。
40.That seems to make more sense.
这样做看起来更有意义
41.The more we keep on using the oil, particularly the imported oil, the more we face a very obvious array of problems.
未来我们使用的石油越多，尤其是进口石油 我们所面临的问题将会越严重。
42.Our analysis assumes that they all cost nothing, but nothing is not the right number.
我们在分析中假设它们都没有什么成本 并不是说真的没有成本
43.It could well be enough to double the oil price, for example.
比如，这可能足以使汽油的价格上涨一倍
44.And one of the worst of these is what it does to our standing in the world if other countries think that everything we do is about oil,
其中最糟的事情之一就是 它会对我们在世界上的地位造成什么影响 如果其他国家认为我们所做的一切只是为了获得石油
45.if we have to treat countries that have oil differently than countries that don’t have oil.
如果我们不得不把那些石油国 和那些非石油国区别对待
46.And our military get quite unhappy with having to stand guard on pipelines in Far-off-istan when what they actually signed up for was to protect American citizens.
我们的军队会十分不高兴 因为他们不得不驻守在遥远的伊斯坦前线。 因为他们参军的真正意义 在于保卫美国人民
47.They don’t like fighting over oil, they don’t like being in the sands and they don’t like where the oil money goes and what sort of instability it creates.
他们不喜欢为了石油而战 他们不喜欢生活在沙漠里 他们不喜欢那些卖油的地方 以及由此产生的那些不安定状况
48.Now, in order to avoid these problems, whatever you think they’re worth, it’s actually not that complicated.
如今，为了避免这些问题 不管你怎样想，它们都物有所值，实际上也没有那么复杂。
49.We can save half the oil by using it more efficiently, at a cost of 12 dollars per saved barrel.
通过更高效的使用方式，我们可以节省一半的石油， 每桶油节省12美元。
50.And then we can replace the other half with a combination of advanced bio-fuels and safe natural gas.
然后我们可以将另外半桶油 用先进生物燃料和安全天然气的混合物来代替。
51.And that costs on average under 18 dollars a barrel.
每桶油的平均成本不到18美元
52.And compared with the official forecast, that oil will cost 26 dollars a barrel in 2025, which is half of what we’ve been paying lately.
相比之下官方的预测是 到2025年这样的混合油成本为26美元 比现在的价格降低了一半
53.That will save 70 billion dollars a year, starting quite soon.
尽快着手，每年我们将省下700亿美元
54.Now, in order to do this we need to invest about 180 billion dollars.
现在，为了实现这一计划，我们需要大约1800亿美元的投资
55.Half of it to retool the car, truck and plane industries.
其中有一半用来重新装备汽车，卡车和飞机工业。
56.Half of it to build the advanced bio-fuel industry.
一半用来创建先进的生物燃料工业。
57.In the process, we will gain about a million good jobs, mainly rural.
在这一过程中，有100万个好的就业机会集中产生在农村。
58.And protect another million jobs now at risk, mainly in auto-making.
并能保住另外100万个岌岌可危的岗位，这些岗位主要集中在汽车制造业。
59.And we’ll also get returns over 150 billion dollars a year.
而且每年我们还能收回超过1500亿美元的投资
60.So that’s a very handsome return.
所以这是一个很可观的回报
61.It’s financeable in the private capital market.
在私有资本主义市场上它有着很强的融资能力
62.But if you want it for the reasons I just mentioned, to happen sooner and with higher confidence, then — and also to expand choice and manage risk —
如果你听了我的解释后想要加入， 那就信心百倍地赶紧加入吧， ——当然，同时要扩大选择范围，并且要评估风险——
63.then you might like some light-handed public policies that support rather than distorting or opposing the business logic.
然后你可能会喜欢一些宽松的公共政策 这些政策并不扭曲或反对商业逻辑，而是对此表示赞同。
64.And these policies work fine without taxes, subsidies or mandates.
这些政策行之有效，无税收，补贴和指令干涉。
65.They make a little net money for the treasury.
它们能为国库产生一些净收益
66.They have a broad trans-ideological appeal, and because we want them actually to happen, we figured out ways to do them that do not require much, if any, federal legislation.
不论对哪个意识形态，它都有着广泛的吸引力。 因为我们希望这一切成为现实 我们已经想好了怎样去做 我们要求不多，如果有的话，就是联邦立法。
67.And can, indeed, be done administratively or at a state level.
并能确确实实地落实在行政上或州级政策上。
68.Just to illustrate what to do about the nub of the problem, namely, light vehicles, here are four ultra-light carbon-composite concept cars with low drag,
刚才只是说明了核心问题应该怎么办， 也就是，制造轻型车辆 这里有4个超轻型碳复合材料低阻力的概念车，
69.and all but the one at the upper left have hybrid drive.
除了左上角的，都有混合动力驱动
70.You can sort of have it all with these things.
可以说，你可以拥有上面提到的一切
71.For example, this Opel two-seater does 155 miles an hour at 94 miles a gallon.
比如说这个双座的欧宝车 每小时行驶155英里的话，一加仑油能跑94英里
72.This muscle car from Toyota: 408 horsepower in an ultra-light that does zero to 60 in well under four seconds, and still gets 32 miles a gallon. I’ll say more later about this.
这个是丰田的超轻型强力车型，408马力 很轻易就能在四秒内从0码加速到60码 一加仑油仍然能跑32公里。一会我再说这个
73.And in the upper left, a pioneering effort 14 years ago by GM — 84 miles a gallon without even using a hybrid, in a four-seater.
左上角的这个，是通用汽车14年前的先驱之作 即使在没有混合动力，四个座的情况下，每加仑能跑84英里
74.Well, saving that fuel, 69 percent of the fuel in light vehicles costs about 57 cents per saved gallon.
那么，按节省燃料算，轻型汽车能节省69% 每节省一加仑成本大约是57美分
75.But it’s even a better deal for heavy trucks, where you save a similar amount at 25 cents a gallon, with better aerodynamics and tires and engines, and so on.
但是，重型卡车的话会更划算 节省的燃料差不多，每加仑只需25美分 还有更先进的空气动力，轮胎和引擎等。
76.And taking out weight so you can put it into payload.
还解决了重量问题，因此你可以把它算进载重量
77.So you can double efficiency with a 60 percent internal rate of return.
所以它的内部收益率为60%，能够取得双重效益
78.Then you can go even further, almost tripling efficiency with some operational improvements, double the big haulers’ margins.
然后你可以更进一步，改善经营运作 将效益再提高一倍 大的运输商利润能翻一番
79.And we intend to use those numbers to create demand pull, and flip the market.
我们打算利用这些数字，拉动需求，扭转市场趋势
80.In the airplane business, it’s again a similar story where the first 20 percent fuel saving is free, as Boeing is now demonstrating in its new Dreamliner.
在航空业务方面，情况也是这样的。 最初的节省的20%的燃料需要投入资金 比如像现在波音公司新的梦幻客机
81.But then the next generation of planes saves about half.
但是下一代的飞机大约能节省一半。
82.Again, much cheaper than buying the fuel.
同样，比购买燃料便宜多了
83.And if you go over the next 15 years or so to a blended-wing body, kind of a flying wing with internal engines, then you get about a factor three efficiency improvement
如果你仔细审视一下未来15年，或者是所谓的混合翼结构 就是那种有内置引擎的机翼 那么你就有可能以相对较低的成本
84.at comparable or lower cost.
把你的效益提高三倍
85.Let me focus a minute on the light vehicles, the cars and light trucks.
下面我用一分钟来集中谈一下轻型汽车，轿车和轻型卡车。
86.Because we all know the most about those, probably everybody here drives one.
由于我们对这三种车型比较熟悉 在座的可能都是开着这几种车来的
87.And yet we may not realize that in a standard sedan, of all the fuel energy you feed into the car, seven-eighths never gets to the wheels,
然而我们可能没有意识到，在标准汽车内部 你给车加的那些油的能量 八分之七都没用在车轮子上
88.it’s lost first in the engine, idling at zero miles a gallon, the power train and accessories.
首先，浪费在引擎内部，还没起步， 动力系统和配件就费了一加仑油
89.So then of the energy that does get to the wheels, only an eighth of it, half of that, goes to heat the tires on the road, or to heat the air the car pushes aside.
接着能量才开始驱动车轮 只占总能量的1/8，其中一半还转化为轮胎摩擦地面的热量 或者是汽车排放的热气
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