1.I’m going to try to give you a view of the world as I see it, the problems and the opportunities that we face, and then ask the question if we should be optimistic or pessimistic.
我要跟大家分享一下我眼里的世界 我们所面临的问题以及现存的机遇 接着我会提出我们应当做乐观主义者还是悲观主义者这个问题
2.And then I’ll let you in on a secret, which is why I am an incurable optimist.
而后我会告诉大家一个秘密，就是我为何会成为一个不可救药的乐观主义者
3.Let me start off showing you an Al Gore movie that you may have seen before.
我们还是从戈尔（美国前副总统）的影片开始，你们有些人看过了
4.Now, you’ve all seen “Inconvenient Truth.” This is a little more inconvenient.
大家都看过《不可忽视的真相》，但是这一个剪辑片段也许让你感到更加不舒服
5.(Video): Man: … extremely dangerous questions.
（视频）……这是极端危险的问题。
6.Because, with our present knowledge, we have no idea what would happen.
因为，按照我们现有的知识，我们根本就无从得知到底会发生什么
7.Even now, man may be unwittingly changing the world’s climate through the waste products of his civilization.
即便是今天，人类也许就已经在不经意中改变了地球的气候 这都来源于人类文明所创造的废物
8.Due to our release, through factories and automobiles every year, of more than six billion tons of carbon dioxide — which helps air absorb heat from the sun —
每一年，工厂以及汽车尾气所排出的CO2 总数为60亿吨 这就使得大气更多的吸收来自太阳的热量
9.our atmosphere seems to be getting warmer.
我们的大气层也因而正变得温暖起来
10.This is bad?
这是坏消息吗？
11.Well, it’s been calculated a few degrees’ rise in the earth’s temperature would melt the polar ice caps.
据估算，即使是地表温度升高几度 都足以使得两极的冰川融化
12.And if this happens, an inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley.
假如真的发生这样的情况，那么流入内陆的海水将淹没密西西比谷地的大部分地区
13.Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami through 150 feet of tropical water.
那时候，乘坐着玻璃底的游客也将可以看到迈阿密那里浸没的塔楼 那时候，迈阿密河的河水深度将达150英尺
14.For, in weather, we’re not only dealing with forces of a far greater variety than even the atomic physicist encounters, but with life itself.
我们将遇到比以往任何时候都更多样的气候 此外就是看到更多不同的生物
15.Larry Brilliant: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad that 50 years of foreknowledge accomplished so little?
看完这个，我们是应当感到高兴，还是应当感到悲伤？ 我们50年前就已经预测到这样的结果，但我们却没做任何干预？
16.Well, it depends, really, on what your goals are.
这个嘛，要看你到底是要达到什么样的目的
17.And I think, as my goals, I always go back to Gandhi’s talisman.
我认为，至少我自己会回到甘地的talisman那里
18.When Mahatma Gandhi was asked, “How do you know if the next act that you are about to do is the right one or the wrong one?” he said, “Consider the face of the poorest,
那时候，有人问 你如何判断你所做的下一步是正确的还是错误的？ 甘地的回答是，“你要考虑那些最贫穷
19.most vulnerable human being that you ever chanced upon, and ask yourself if the act that you contemplate will be of benefit to that person.
最无力的人 然后问自己，你所做的事情是否会让他们受益。
20.And if it will be, it’s the right thing to do. And if not, rethink it.”
假如是，那就是好事。假如不是，你就要重新思考了。
21.For those of us in this room, it’s not just the poorest and the most vulnerable individual, it’s the community, it’s the culture, it’s the world itself.
而对于我们这个房间里的人而言，我们要考虑的不单是最贫穷、最无力的人 我们要考虑整一个社区、文化以及整个世界
22.And the trends for those who are at the periphery of our society, who are the poorest and the most vulnerable, the trends give rise to a great case for pessimism.
以及那些生活在我们都市边缘的人们 他们往往是最贫穷、最无力的 这一切，也许就会让我们感到无尽的悲观
23.But there’s also a wonderful case for optimism.
但与此同时，我们也看到了一片美好的乐观图景
24.Let’s review them both. First of all, the megatrends.
我们分别谈谈这两方面。首先，从大趋势来看，
25.There’s two degrees, or three degrees of climate change baked into the system.
现在有2到3摄氏度的升温是必然的
26.It will cause rising seas. It will cause saline deposited into wells and into lands.
这将会导致海平面上升，海水倒灌
27.It will disproportionately harm the poorest and the most vulnerable, as will the increasing rise of population.
使得穷人以及无力者受到最大的伤害 还有就是人口数量依然会增长
28.Even though we’ve dodged Paul Ehrlich’s population bomb, and we will not see 20 billion people in this decade, as he had forecast, we eat as if we were 20 billion.
虽然我们有幸逃过了Paul Ehrlich所预言的“人口爆炸”的危机 至少在这个十年里，地球上不会出现200亿人 但我们所消耗的食物数量与200亿人相当
29.And we consume so much that again, a rise of 6.5 billion to 9.5 billion in our grandchildren’s lifetime will disproportionately hurt
我们所消费的东西是如此之多，因此，到了我们的孙辈那一代， 人口将上升到65到95亿，
30.the poorest and the most vulnerable.
那将使得最穷的人以及最无力的人成为最大的输家
31.That’s why they migrate to cities.
这就是他们迁往城市的原因
32.That’s why in June of this year, we passed, as a species, 51 percent of us living in cities, and bustees, and slums, and shantytowns.
今年6月，有51%的人居住在城市和贫民窟里， 这是人类这一物种的第一次
33.The rural areas are no longer producing as much food as they did.
农村地区不再如往常那样出产大量的粮食
34.The green revolution never reached Africa.
绿色革命未曾惠及非洲
35.And with desertification, sandstorms, the Gobi Desert, the Ogaden, we are finding increasing difficulty of a hectare to produce as many calories as it did even 15 years ago.
还有就是沙漠化、沙尘暴、戈壁滩、Ogaden 我们现在很难找到一小块可以耕作，并且 可以产生出跟15年前一样多粮食的土地
36.So humans are turning more towards animal consumption.
另外，人类也越来越喜欢吃肉
37.In Africa last year, Africans ate 600 million wild animals, and consumed two billion kilograms of bushmeat.
单是去年一年，非洲人就吃掉了6亿头野生动物 还吃掉了20亿公斤的丛林肉
38.And every kilogram of bushmeat contained hundreds of thousands of novel viruses that have never been charted, the genomic sequences of which we don’t know.
每一公斤的丛林肉都包含数以万计的新型病菌 它们以前从未被监测到过，我们也还不知道它们的基因组图
39.Their fitness for creating pandemics we are unaware of, but we are ripe for zoonotic-borne, emerging communicable diseases.
也许它们可以成为新型流行病的温床 我们即将要面对的，就是诞生于热带地区、易于传播的各种新型疾病
40.Increasingly, I would say explosive growth of technology.
还有，随着技术的爆炸式增长
41.Most of us are the beneficiaries of that growth. But it has a dark side — in bioweapons, and in technology that puts us on a collision course
我们这里大多数人都是这一增长的受益者。但是，这样的增长也是存在黑暗点的 生物武器以及其他足以助长人们之间的
42.to magnify any anger, hatred or feeling of marginalization.
仇恨、怨怒以及使得部分人被边缘化的形式
43.And in fact, with increasing globalization — for which there are big winners and even bigger losers — today the world is more diverse and unfair than perhaps it has ever been in history.
随着全球化进程之加速， 这一进程将伴随着巨大的赢家以及更多的输家 今日之世界比以往任何时候都更加多元也更加不公平
44.One percent of us own 40 percent of all the goods and services.
1%的人口占有了40%的资源以及服务
45.What will happen if the billion people today who live on less than one dollar a day rise to three billion in the next 30 years?
假如在未来30年内，那些生活在贫困线底下的人口数量 从10亿上升到30亿，会发生些什么？
46.The one percent will own even more than 40 percent of all the world’s goods and services. Not because they’ve grown richer, but because the rest of the world has grown increasingly poorer.
那么1%的人将占有多于40%的资源及服务 事实上不是他们变得更富裕了 而是因为世界别的地区的人正变得越来越贫穷
47.Last week, Bill Clinton at the TED Awards said, “This situation is unprecedented, unequal, unfair and unstable.”
上周，克林顿在TED大奖获奖感言里说 “这样一种情况是前所未有的、不公平的、不公正的，也不稳定的。”
48.So there’s lots of reason for pessimism.
因此，持悲观主义的心态似乎是有充分的理由
49.Darfur is, at its origin, a resource war.
达尔富尔危机从本质上说就是一场资源争夺战
50.Last year, there were 85,000 riots in China, 230 a day, that required police or military intervention.
去年一年，中国发生了85000起的骚乱 平均每天230起是需要武力进行干涉的
51.Most of them were about resources.
其中大部分都是为了争夺资源
52.We are facing an unprecedented number scale of disasters.
我们正面对前所未有的危机
53.Some are weather-related, human-rights related, epidemics.
有些是关乎天气的，有些是关乎人的
54.And the newly emerging diseases may make H5N1 and bird flu a quaint forerunner of things to come. It’s a destabilized world.
而那些新兴的疾病将会使得H5N1以及禽流感相形见绌 它们不过是更大型病毒之前奏而已。这确实是一个不安宁的世界。
55.And unlike destabilized world in the past, it will be broadcast to you on YouTube, you will see it on digital television and on your cell phones.
与过往的那些不安宁事件不一样的是，如今这个世界所发生的一切都将通过YouTube直播到你的桌面 你将会在数字电视以及手机上看到实况转播
56.What will that lead to?
这将带来什么后果？
57.For some, it will lead to anger, religious and sectarian violence and terrorism.
对有些人而言，将意味着愤怒，宗教或非宗教的暴力以及恐怖主义
58.For others, withdrawal, nihilism, materialism.
对于其他人而言，将意味着退却、虚无以及拜物主义
59.For us, where does it take us, as social activists and entrepreneurs?
但对于我们这些社会活动家以及企业家而言，这将意味着什么？
60.As we look at these trends, do we become despondent, or will we become energized?
看到这样的趋势，我们是变得沮丧，还是变得倍受鼓舞？
61.Let’s look at one case, the case of Bangladesh.
我们来看看孟加拉的例子吧。
62.First, even if carbon dioxide emissions stopped today, global warming would continue.
首先，即使人类的CO2排放于今天停止， 全球变暖的趋势依然会继续
63.And even with global warming — if you can see these blue lines, the dotted line shows that even if emissions of greenhouse gasses stopped today,
大家可以看到那些蓝色的线条 假使温室气体的排放今天就完全中止
64.the next decades will see rising sea levels.
我们在下一个十年将依然会看到海平面的上升
65.A minimum of 20 to 30 inches of increase in sea levels is the best case that we can hope for, and it could be 10 times that.
最保守的估计是有20到30英寸的上升 但事实可能是那个的10倍
66.What will that to do to Bangladesh? Let’s take a look.
这会给孟加拉带来什么变化?
67.So here’s Bangladesh.
我们不妨看看，这里就是孟加拉，
68.70 percent of Bangladesh is at less than five feet above sea level.
该国70%的国土海拔仅仅为五英尺
69.Let’s go up and take a look at the Himalayas.
我们来看看喜马拉雅山
70.And we’ll watch as global warming makes them melt. More water comes down, the deforested areas, here in the Tarai, will be unable to absorb the effluent,
我们看看喜马拉雅山因气候变暖而出现冰川融化的情景。雨水越来越多 积聚在森林消失的地方。在Tarai一地，那里的土地将不能吸收雨水
71.because trees are like straws, that suck up the extra seasonal water.
因为树木可以像秸秆那样吸收多余的雨水并且贮存起来的
72.Now we’re looking down south, through the Kali Gandaki.
好，我们再透过 Kali Gandaki 看看南部的地区
73.Many of you, I think, have probably trekked here.
我想你们当中很多人应当是徒步去到过那里
74.And we’re going to cruise down and take a look at Bangladesh and see what the impact will be of twin increases in water coming from the north, and in the seas rising from the south.
我们就一直往南走，直到孟加拉 我们看看这里会发生什么：北部的冰川融水会不断的增多 同时，南部的海水也在不断的上涨
75.Looking at the five major rivers that feed Bangladesh.
再看看途径孟加拉的五大河流
76.And now let’s look from the south, looking up, and let’s see this in relief.
再从南往北看，看看这个三维的图像
77.A minimum of 20 to 40 inches of increase in seas, coupled with increasing flows from the Himalayas. And take a look at this.
我们将发现，这里的海面会有20到40英寸的上升 还有来自喜马拉雅的融水。再看看这里
78.As many as 100 million refugees from Bangladesh could be expected to migrate into India and into China.
将会有一亿的难民从孟加拉 逃难到印度和中国
79.This is the difficulty that one country faces.
这就是其中一个国家即将面临的难题
80.But if you look at the globe, all around the earth, wherever there is low-lying area, populated areas near the water, you will find increase in sea level that will challenge our way of life.
假如你放眼全球，看看那些低洼地带 看看那些河岸线上的人口密集的地区 你会看到，海平面之上涨会改变我们的生活
81.Sub-Saharan Africa, and even our own San Francisco Bay Area.
不管是在撒哈拉以南的沙漠还是在我们这里的旧金山湾区
82.We’re all in this together.
我们可谓同济共舟
83.This is not something that happens far away to people that we don’t know.
这不是只会影响到一些边远地区的人的事件
84.Global warming is something that happens to all of us, all at once.
它是会在我们每一个人身上发生的事情
85.As are these newly emerging communicable diseases, names that you hadn’t heard 20 years ago: ebola, lhasa fever, monkey pox.
同样会发生的就是这些传染病 这些名字你20年前还不会听说过：伊博拉、拉萨热、猴痘
86.With the erosion of the green belt separating animals from humans, we live in each other’s viral environment.
还有，随着人与动物之间的那段绿色保护带在逐渐消失 我们就生活在每一个人的病毒环境里
87.Do you remember, 20 years ago, no one had ever heard of West Nile fever?
你能想象吗，20年前，还没有人会听说过西尼罗河热呢！
88.And then we watched, as one case arrived on the East Coast of the United States and it marched every year, westwardly.
接着，我们就看到第一例感染个案出现在美国东海岸 其后每一年都逐渐西移
89.Do you remember no one had heard of ebola until we heard of hundreds of people dying in Central Africa from it?
你知道吗？在我们听说中非有数百人因为感染这一病毒而死亡之前 没有人听说过这个病毒！
90.It’s just the beginning, unfortunately.
不幸的是，这一切都仅仅是开始
91.There have been 30 novel emerging communicable diseases that begin in animals that have jumped species in the last 30 years.
过去30年，出现了30种新型传染病毒 都是最先出现在动物身上，而后传到人体的
92.It’s more than enough reason for pessimism.
看来使人悲观的事情还非常多
93.But now let’s look at the case for optimism. (Laughter) Enough of the bad news. Human beings have always risen to the challenge.
但我们还是来看一下乐观的理由吧 坏消息？够多了。人类总会勇于面对挑战
94.You just need to look at the list of Nobel laureates to remind ourselves.
看看诺贝尔奖获得者的名单就可以理解这点
95.We’ve been here before, paralyzed by fear, paralyzed into inaction, when some — probably one of you in this room — jumped into the breach
我们过去不也曾遇到同类困境吗？我们被恐惧吓坏了，不行动 但有些人——也许就是你们其中一些人——则不顾这么多
96.and created an organization like Physicians for Social Responsibility, which fought against the nuclear threat, Medicins Sans Frontieres, that renewed our commitment to disaster relief,
就创立了一个像“物理学家社会责任协会”这样的组织 你们站起来对抗核子威胁 还有医生无国界，它继承了我们紧急救援的传统
97.Mohamed ElBaradei, and the tremendous hope and optimism that he brought all of us, and our own Muhammad Yunus.
还有国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪，他的希望与乐观 还有尤奴斯
98.We’ve seen the eradication of smallpox.
我们亲眼看到了天花之消失
99.We may see the eradication of polio this year.
我们也许今年就会看到小儿麻痹症被消灭
100.Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world.
去年，全世界就只有2000例
101.We may see the eradication of guinea worm next year — there are only 35,000 cases left in the world.
明年，也许我们就能看到几内亚虫被消灭 现在世界上只剩下35000个感染个案了
102.20 years ago, there were three and a half million.
20年前，有350万的人感染这一病毒
103.And we’ve seen a new disease, not like the 30 novel emerging communicable diseases.
我们也认识了一些新的传染病，它跟过去30年出现的流行传染病不大一样
104.This disease is called sudden wealth syndrome. (Laughter) It’s an amazing phenomenon.
它的名字叫“暴富综合症”（笑） 这是一个相当有趣的现象
105.All throughout the technology world, we’re seeing young people bitten by this disease of sudden wealth syndrome.
环顾科技界，我们看到了许多的年轻人 正是被这一综合症所感染
106.But they’re using their wealth in a way that their forefathers never did.
但他们花费金钱的方式是其父辈从未想到的
107.They’re not waiting until they die to create foundations.
他们不会等到临死才去创立基金会
108.They’re actively guiding their money, their resources, their hearts, their commitments, to make the world a better place.
他们正在将自己的金钱、资源、心血以及热忱 贡献出来，为的是让世界变得更好
109.Certainly, nothing can give you more optimism than that.
可以说，没有别的东西可以给你更大的乐观情绪了
110.More reasons to be optimistic.
还有更多使你乐观的理由
111.In the ’60s, and I am a creature of the ’60s, there was a movement.
60年代的时候发生过一场运动，我就是那时候长大的
112.We all felt that we were part of it, that a better world was right around the corner, that we were watching the birth of a world free of hatred, and violence and prejudice.
我们都认为自己是其中的一部分，我们认为一个更加美好的世界就在前面 我们创造的是一个没有仇恨、暴力以及偏见的世界
