1.There’s a great big elephant in the room called the economy.
经济是个重要，而又常被避开的话题。
2.So let’s start talking about that.
让我们来聊下它。
3.I wanted to give you current picture of the economy.
我想给你们看看目前的经济状况。
4.That’s what I have behind myself.
这是我自己身后的东西。
5.(Laughter) But of course what we have to remember is this.
笑声 言归正传，当然我们需要记住的,
6.And what you have to think about is, when you’re dancing in the flames, what’s next?
并且你们需要思考的是, 当你们在热焰上跳舞，后面会发生什么？
7.So what I’m going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes is I’m going to talk first about the flames — where we are in the economy —
所以在接下来的17.5分钟里，我着意要做的是 首先要谈一谈这火焰 目前我们所处的经济状况
8.and then I’m going to take three trends that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years and that will take place in this conference
接着我要提出三个趋势 这三个趋势已经在过去25年的TED大会上提到过 也会在这次的会议上涉及
9.and I will try and bring them together.
并且我会尝试把它们联系到一起。
10.And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.
同时尝试展示给你们看终极的复苏会是怎样的。
11.Those three trends are the ability to engineer cells, the ability to engineer tissues and robots.
这三个趋势是 细胞工程 组织工程 机器人工程
12.And somehow it will all make sense.
并且大家都会理解
13.But anyway, let’s start with the economy.
不过，我们还是从经济讲起吧
14.There’s a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.
有一些非常大的问题仍然存在
15.One is leverage.
一个是杠杆化
16.And the problem with leverage is it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.
杠杆化的问题是 它把美国的财政系统弄成了这个样子
17.(Laughter) So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.
（笑声） 一个普通的商业银行有9到10倍
18.That means for every dollar you deposit it loans out about nine or 10.
这意味着你存进银行的每一块钱都能贷出大约9或者10块
19.A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank, it’s an investment bank; it has 15 to 20 times.
一个普通的投资银行不是存款银行， 它是一个投资银行； 有着大约15到20倍。
20.It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.
结果美洲银行在9月份是32倍。
21.And your friendly Citibank had 47 times.
花旗银行有47倍。
22.Oops.
喔哦。
23.That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.
这就是说每笔坏帐会坏上47倍。
24.And that, of course, is the reason why all of you are making such generous and wonderful donations to these nice folks.
那当然，就是为什么你们 做出了这么慷慨和美妙的捐赠 给这些人们。
25.And as you think about that, You’ve got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?
当你们在想这件事情的时候， 你们会觉得好奇：那银行里现在还为你们存着些什么呢？
26.(Laughter) It ain’t pretty.
（笑声） 显然不是很棒
27.The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.
与此同时，政府扮的像圣诞老人一样
28.We all love Santa Claus, right?
我们都爱圣诞老人不是吗？
29.But the problem with Santa Clause is, if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing, and promising folks,
不过，圣诞老人有个问题是， 如果你回顾下这些人的所作所为而导致的“强制性开销” 以及他们所承诺给人们的事项。
30.it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending on what we call “entitlements.”
结果到了1937年，38％都是“强制性开销” 在了我们所谓“权利”上。
31.And then by 2007 it was 68 percent.
到了07年变成了68%。
32.And we weren’t supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.
到2030年左右，会达到100％
33.Except we’ve been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there, that we’ve brought that date of reckoning forward to about 2017.
然而，如果我们再急不可耐的这里几万亿，那里几万亿 这个估算结果会提前 到2017年。
34.And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids, but, guess what?
我们认为自己将有能力不让我们的孩子承担这些债务， 但，你猜怎么着？
35.We’re going to start to pay them.
我们才开始偿还它们。
36.And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill’s come due, it turns out Santa isn’t quite as cute when it’s summertime.
关于这些事情的问题是，现在支票到期了， 结果圣诞老人在夏天并不那么可爱了。
37.Right?
对吗？
38.(Laughter) Here’s some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.
笑声 这里是美国最大的投资商中的一位提出的一些建议。
39.This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.
这个人经营中国投资集团。
40.He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.
他是美国国库券的主要购买者。
41.And he gave an interview in December.
他在11月出席了一次访谈。
42.Here’s his first bit of advice.
这是他的第一条建议。
43.And here’s his second bit of advice.
这是他的第二条建议。
44.And, by the way, the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.
顺便说一下， 中国国务院总理上周日在达沃斯又重申了这点。
45.This stuff is getting serious enough that if we don’t start paying attention to the deficit, we’re going to end up losing the dollar.
情况已经不容乐观了 如果我们仍然不重视这些缺陷 结果就会是大量亏损。
46.And then all bets are off.
仅此一项，就足以带来不堪设想的结果。
47.Let me show you what it looks like.
让我给你们看看情况会是怎样的。
48.I think I can safely say that I’m the only trillionaire in this room.
我想我可以很有把握地说 我会是这个房间里唯一的万亿富翁。
49.This is an actual bill.
这是一张真的钞票。
50.And it’s 10 trilliion dollars.
它值10万亿美元。
51.The only problem with this bill is it’s not really worth very much.
问题只是它其实并不值这么多。
52.That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week, a buck next week.
上周是8块，这周就是4块， 下周只值1块了。
53.And that’s what happens to currencies when you don’t stand behind them.
当我们支撑不了汇率的时候，这样的情况就会发生。
54.So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep, and sometimes this creature’s called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes … whatever you want —
所以下次有类似这样可爱的人出现在你的门口时， 有时候这个东西叫克莱斯勒或者有时是福特或者别的名字，
55.you’ve just got to say no.
你就要说不。
56.And you’ve got to start banishing a word that’s called “entitlement.”
并且你必须开始不再使用“权益”这个词。
57.And there reason we have to do that in the short term is because we have just run out of cash.
就眼前来说我们这样做的理由 就是我们没钱了。
58.If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.
如果你们去看看联邦政府的预算，就是这个样子的
59.The orange slice is what’s discretionary.
橙色部分是自由资金，
60.Everything else is mandated.
别的都是强制性的。
61.It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.
在整件事情里即使我们切断通向阿拉斯加的桥也不会发生什么变化。
62.So what we have to start thinking about doing is capping our medical spending because that’s a monster that’s simply going to eat the entire budget.
所以我们不得不开始计划要做的 就是封住医疗支出 因为这是一头将会要吞噬掉所有预算的怪物。
63.We’ve got to start thinking about asking people to retire a little bit later.
我们开始想要求人们 晚一点退休。
64.If you’re 60 to 65 you retire on time.
如果你是在60倒65岁之间正常退休，
65.Your 401(k) just got nailed.
你的退休金刚刚只受到一些影响。
66.If you’re 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more.
如果你是50到60岁之间,我们希望你再多做两年。
67.If you’re under 50 we want you to work four more years.
如果你50不到,我们希望你再多做4年。
68.The reason why that’s reasonable is, when your grandparents were given Social Security, they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.
这样做合理的原因是， 当你祖父获得社会保障时， 他们在65岁时开始领，68岁时领完。
69.68 is young today.
如今68岁算年轻了。
70.We’ve also got to cut the military about three percent a year.
我们也需要每年削减军费3％。
71.We’ve got to limit other mandatory spending.
并且限制其他强制开销。
72.We’ve got to quit borrowing as much because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.
我们不能再借这么多钱 否则利息会吞噬整个预算。
73.And we’ve got to end up with a smaller government.
最后就剩下一个更小的政府。
74.And if we don’t start changing this trend line, we are going to lose the dollar and start to look like Iceland.
如果我们不开始改变这个趋势， 就将会蒙受经济上的损失 就会沦为象冰岛一样 。
75.I got what you’re thinking.
我知道你们在想什么。
76.This is going to happen when hell freezes over.
这一切只有在地狱封冻了才会发生。
77.But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.
但是我提醒你今年11月维加斯的确下雪了。
78.(Laughter) Here’s what happens if you don’t address this stuff.
笑声 如果你们不处理这些事，就将会发生的以下情况。
79.So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis back in the late ’80s.
日本发生过一次财政地产危机 在80年代后期。
80.And its 225 largest companies today are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.
今天它的225家最大的企业 只有相当于18年前四分之一的价值。
81.We don’t fix this now, how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026?
我们现在不解决这个问题， 你是否乐意在2026年看到一个到琼斯3500点？
82.Because that’s the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.
因为这就是不处理这些事情的后果。
83.And unless you want this person to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States, we’d better deal with this stuff.
除非你希望这个人 不仅变成佛罗里达州的首席财政官，并且掌管美国经济， 我们最好处理好这些事情。
84.That’s the short term. That’s the flame part.
以上是目前的情况，就是火焰的部分。
85.That’s the financial crisis.
这就是金融危机。
86.Now, right behind the financial crisis there’s a second and bigger wave that we need to talk about.
现在，在金融危机背后的是第二波更大的浪潮 这是我们需要讲的。
87.That wave is much larger, much more powerful, and that’s of course the wave of technology.
这股浪潮要大的多，也有力的多， 当然这是技术的浪潮。
88.And what’s really important in this stuff is, as we cut, we also have to grow.
在这里面最重要的是， 当我们在削减的同时，也需要增长。
89.Among other things, because startup companies are .02 percent of U.S. GDP investment and they’re about 17.8 percent of output.
不说别的，就只说新晋的公司 只占美国GDP的投资的0.02％ 却带来了17.8%的产出
90.It’s groups like that in this room that generate the future of the U.S. economy.
这样的一群人比如在这个房间内的各位便是创造美国经济未来的人。
91.And that’s what we’ve got to keep growing.
这是我们需要保持增长的部分。
92.We don’t have to keep growing this bridges to nowhere.
我们不必毫无方向地发展。
93.So let’s bring a romance novelist into this conversation.
因此让我们把浪漫派作家带进这场谈话中。
94.And that’s where these three trends come together.
这是三个趋势合并到一起的地方
95.That’s where the ability to engineer microbes, the ability to engineer tissues, and the ability to engineer robots begin to lead to a reboot.
便是微生物工程 组织工程 机器人工程 所导向的复苏。
96.And let me recap some of the stuff you’ve seen.
让我重述一些你们所见过的东西。
97.Craig Venter showed up last year and showed you the first fully programmable cell that acts like hardware where you can insert DNA and have it boot up as a different species.
克雷格 凡特去年来到这里 并展示给大家第一个完全可编程的，运行起来就像计算机硬件般的细胞 你能植入DNA，并且启动它，变成另一个物种。
98.In parallel, the folks at MIT have been building a standard registry of biological parts.
与此同时，在MIT的人们 开始制定生物器官的标准注册表。
99.So think of it as a Radio Shack for biology.
可以把这些想像成一股生物界的震荡波。
100.You can go out and get your proteins, your RNA, your DNA, whatever.
你可以获得你的蛋白质，RNA,DNA,或者任何东西。
101.And start building stuff.
并开始制造东西。
102.In 2006 they brought together high school students and college students and started to build these little odd creatures.
在2006年他们组织了一些高中生和大学生 开始制造这些奇怪的小东西。
103.They just happened to be alive instead of circuit boards.
它们的确活了起来而不只是电路板
104.Here was one of the first things they built.
这是它们制造的第一个东西
105.So, cells have this cycle.
细胞有这样的一个周期
106.First they don’t grow.
起先它们不生长
107.Then they grow exponentially.
接着以指数速度生长
108.Then they stop growing.
然后又停止
109.Graduate students wanted a way of telling which stage they were in.
研究生们希望找到一种方法能知道他们是处在什么阶段
110.So they engineered these cells so that when they’re growing in the exponential phase, they would smell like wintergreen.
所以他们改造了这些细胞 这样这些细胞就能在指数增长阶段时， 散发除鹿蹄草的味道
111.And when they stopped growing they would smell like bananas.
当它们停止生长就会闻起来像香蕉
112.And you could tell very easily when your experiment was working and wasn’t, and where it was in the phase.
这样你就能很方便地知道你的实验什么时候是顺利的 什么时候不起作用，以及它正处在什么阶段
113.This got a bit more complicated two years later.
在两年后这个实验又变得更复杂了一点
114.21 countries came together. Dozens of teams.
21个国家参与了进来，几十个团队
115.They started competing.
他们开始竞争
116.The team from Rice University started to engineer the substance in red wine that makes red wine good for you into beer.
莱斯大学的团队开始改造红酒里的物质 把那些对你有好处的东西 放进啤酒
117.So you take resveratrol and you put it into beer.
你可以提炼出白藜芦醇放进啤酒
118.Of course, one of the judges is wandering by, and he goes, “Wow! Cancer-fighting beer! There is a God.”
当然，有一位评审走过时，发出这样的惊叹 哇哦！抗癌啤酒！上帝的确存在！
119.(Laughter) The team from Taiwan was a little bit more ambitious.
笑声 来自台湾得团队更雄心勃勃
120.They tried to engineer bacterias in such a way that they would act as your kidneys.
他们想要这样修改细菌 让它们像你们得肾脏一样工作
121.Four years ago, I showed you this picture.
4年前，我给你们看了这张图片。
122.And people oohed and ahhed, because Cliff Tabin had been able to grow an extra wing on a chicken.
人们惊叹不已， 因为克里夫 塔宾能在鸡身上多长一只翅膀出来
123.And that was very cool stuff back then.
那时候这真是非常酷的东西
124.But now moving from bacterial engineering to tissue engineering, let me show you what’s happened in that period of time.
现在从细菌改造到生物组织制造 让我来展示给你们看这段时间里发生了什么
125.Two years ago, you saw this creature.
2年前，你们看这个生物。
126.An almost-extinct animal from Xochimilco, Mexico called an axolotl that can re-generate its limbs.
一种几乎灭绝的生物，生活在霍奇米尔科,墨西哥 叫做蝾螈 它能再生自己的四肢
127.You can freeze half its heart. It regrows.
你能冷藏它的半颗心脏，它会再长出来
128.You can freeze half the brain. It regrows.
冷藏它的一半大脑，它会再长出来
129.It’s almost like leaving Congress.
几乎就像是离开国会
130.(Laughter) But now, you don’t have to have the animal itself to regenerate, because you can build cloned mice molars in petri dishes.
笑声 但是现在，你不必要那个动物再自我恢复， 因为你能在培养皿里制造克隆的老鼠的磨牙。
131.And, of course if you can build mice molars in petri dishes, you can grow human molars in petri dishes.
当然如果你能在培养皿里制造老鼠牙齿 你就也能在培养皿里生长人类的磨牙
132.This should not surprise you, right?
这些不会让你感到惊奇吧？
133.I mean, you’re born with no teeth.
你们出生的时候是没有牙齿的
134.You give away all your teeth to the tooth fairy.
你把自己的牙齿全都给了牙仙
135.You regrow a set of teeth.
又长出了一副牙齿
136.But then if you lose one of those second set of teeth, they don’t regrow, unless, if you’re a lawyer.
但如果你失去了第二副牙齿，就不会再长出来了 除非，你是个律师
137.(Laughter) But, of course, for most of us, we know how to grow teeth, and therefore we can take adult stem teeth, put them on a biodegradable mold, regrow a tooth,
（笑声） 当然，我们大多数人， 我们知道怎样生长牙齿，所以我们能取出成人的干细胞， 放进一个能生物降解的模具，再生长出牙齿，
138.and simply implant it.
就能很方便地植入它。
139.And we can do it with other things.
我们也能用其他东西来做到这点
140.So, a Spanish woman who was dying of TB had a donor trachea, they took all the cells off the trachea, they spraypainted her stem cells on to that cartilage.
一个因为肺结核而生命垂危西班牙妇女获得了一个捐赠的气管， 他们把气管上所有的细胞都去除， 然后在那软骨上面散布了她的干细胞。
141.She regrew her own trachea, and 72 hours later it was implanted.
她再生了自己的气管， 72小时后它就被植入了。
142.She’s now running around with her kids.
现在她正和她的孩子一起嬉闹奔跑。
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