1.So, a big question that we’re facing now and have been for quite a number of years now: Are we at risk of a nuclear attack?
我们现在面临一个大问题 这个问题已经持续了很多年： 我们是否处于遭受核袭击的危险之中呢？
2.Now, there’s a bigger question that’s probably actually more important than that, is the notion of permanently eliminating the possibility of a nuclear attack,
现在，有一个更大的问题 这个问题可能比刚刚提到的那个问题更重要 那就是，我们能不能永久地消除 核袭击的可能性
3.eliminating the threat altogether.
能不能将这种威胁完全消除
4.And I would like to make a case to you that over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry, until this very moment, we’ve actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world
我想给大家举个例子 从核武器被发明以来的这些年间 直到此时此刻 我们其实一直生活在一个危险的核世界
5.that’s characterized by two phases, which I’m going to go through with you right now.
这可以分为两个阶段 我现在和大家一起来回顾一下
6.First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.
首先，我们从1945年开始正式进入核时代
7.The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons through the Manhattan Project, and the idea was very straightforward: we would use the power of the atom
美国通过曼哈顿计划 成功研制出了核武器 目的非常明确 我们将动用核武器的力量
8.to end the atrocities and the horror of this unending World War II that we’d been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.
来结束无休止的二战 所带来的残暴与恐惧 我们当时被卷入了欧洲和太平洋战场
9.And in 1945, we were the only nuclear power.
在1945年 我们是唯一的有核国家
10.We had a few nuclear weapons, two of which we dropped on Japan in Hiroshima, a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945, killing about 250,000 people between those two.
我们有一定数量的核武器 其中一枚投在了日本广岛市 另一枚几天之后扔在了长崎，这些发生在1945年8月 这两枚原子弹一共造成25万人死亡
11.And for a few years, we were the only nuclear power on Earth.
之后的一些年间 我们一直是地球上唯一的有核国家
12.But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power, and they began to match what the United States had developed.
但是1949年，苏联认为 只有美国拥有核武器是一件无法接受的事情 他们开始和美国一样发展核武器
13.And from 1949 to 1985 was an extraordinary time of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal that no one could possibly have imagined back in the 1940s.
从1949年到1985年 这是一个特殊时期 一个核武器逐步发展的时期 如果是在40年代 没有人可能会想到
14.So by 1985, each of those red bombs up here is equivalent of a thousands warheads.
到1985年的时候，地图上每一个红色炸弹标志 都代表着1000枚核弹头
15.The world had 65,000 nuclear warheads, and seven members of something that came to be known as the “Nuclear Club.”
整个世界 一共有65000枚核弹头 有7个国家先后拥有了核武器 成为了一个叫做“核俱乐部”组织的成员
16.And it was an extraordinary time, and I am going to go through some of the mentality that we — that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.
这是一个特殊时期 我一会儿将讨论一下 美国人以及其他国家的人对此的思考
17.But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent of the nuclear weapons at any particular time since 1985 — going forward, of course —
但我想先向大家指出 自1985年以来的任何一个时间点 全世界百分之九十五的
18.were part of the arsenals of the United States and the Soviet Union.
核武器被储存在 美国和苏联的军火库中
19.After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union, we began to disarm from a nuclear point of view.
从1985年到苏联解体的这段时间 我们在核武器这方面 开始削减军备
20.We began to counter-proliferate, and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world to about a total of 21,000.
我们开始反核扩散 我们全世界的核弹头数量减少到了 大约21000枚
21.It’s a very difficult number to deal with, because what we’ve done is we’ve, quote unquote, “decommissioned” some of the warheads.
这是一个非常难理解的数目 因为我们所做的 只是使一些核弹头“退役”了
22.They’re still probably usable. They could be “recommissioned,”
它们可能还可以使用，并且可以“再次服役”
23.but the way they count things, which is very complicated, we think we have about a third of the nuclear weapons we had before.
但是军方用一种很复杂的技术方法统计得出结论： 我们以为全世界只留有相比以前 三分之一的核武器
24.But we also, in that period of time, added two more members to the nuclear club: Pakistan and North Korea.
但与此同时，我们的 ”核俱乐部“又新增了两个成员 巴基斯坦和北朝鲜
25.So we stand today with a still fully-armed nuclear arsenal among many countries around the world, but a very different set of circumstances.
因此我们今天仍处于一个 很多国家都拥有核武器的时期 但情况却和以前非常不同
26.So I’m going to talk about a nuclear threat story in two chapters.
我接下来会分两个时期讨论 关于核威胁的历史
27.Chapter One is 1949 to 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up, and what we were dealing with at that point and through those years was a superpowers nuclear arms race.
第一个时期从1949年到 1991年苏联解体 我们要关注的是在这些年间 有一场超级大国之间的核军备竞赛
28.It was characterized by a nation-versus-nation, very fragile standoff.
这场核军备竞赛最主要的特点就是 国家之间的对立导致 核战争一触即发
29.And basically, we lived for all those years, and some might argue that we still do, in a situation of being on the brink, literally,
基本上 可以毫不夸张地说 我们那些年就像走在 世界末日的悬崖边 有些人认为
30.of an apocalyptic planetary calamity.
直至今日情况仍然如此
31.It’s incredible that we actually lived through all that.
我们能活到现在简直是难以置信
32.We were totally dependent during those years on this amazing acronym, which is MAD; it stands for Mutually Assured Destruction.
这些年我们（之所以能活下来）完全是依赖于 这个神奇的叫做MAD的东西 它是“确保相互毁灭”的缩写
33.So it meant if you — if you attacked us, we would attack you virtually simultaneously, and the end result would be a destruction of your country and mine.
它的意思是，如果… 如果你袭击我，我也会袭击你 双方几乎同时发动袭击 这样做的结果就是 你我两国同时被摧毁
34.So the threat of my own destruction kept me from launching a nuclear attack on you. That’s the way we lived.
因此由于担心我自己被毁灭 我不会发射（核武器） 来对你进行核打击。这就是我们为什么能活下来
35.And the danger of that, of course, is that a misreading of a radar screen could actually cause a counter-launch, even though the first country had not actually launched anything.
不过这么做的危险就是 雷达的一次误报 就可能引发一次反击 即使另一个国家事实上根本没有发射任何东西
36.During this Chapter One, there was a high level of public awareness about the potential of nuclear catastrophe, and an indelible image was implanted
在这个时期 民众很清楚地意识到 确实可能发生潜在的核灾难 一个难以抹掉的画面出现在
37.in our collective minds that in fact a nuclear holocaust would be absolutely globally destructive and could, in some ways, mean the end of civilization as we know it.
每个人的脑海中 那就是一次核灾难 将带来全球性的毁灭 而且，从某个角度来说，这也意味着人类文明将走到尽头
38.So this was Chapter One.
这就是第一个时期
39.Now the odd thing is that even though we knew that there would be that kind of civilization obliteration, we engaged, in America, in a series —
不过奇怪的是，即使 我们知道可能会发生 这种文明灭绝 我们美国人正忙于一系列－
40.and in fact, in the Soviet Union — in a series of response planning.
事实上苏联也一样－ 一系列应对措施
41.It was absolutely incredible.
这简直让人难以置信
42.So premise one is we’d be destroying the world, and then premise two is, why don’t we get prepared for it?
一方面是我们随时都可能毁灭世界 另一方面我们却在考虑如何为此做好准备？
43.So what we — what we offered ourselves was a collection of things. I’m just going to go skim through a few things, just to — to jog your memories.
所以，我们－ 我们提出了 一堆方案。我将只回顾其中的几个 只是为了唤起你们的回忆
44.If you’re born after 1950, this is just — consider this entertainment, otherwise it’s memory lane.
如果你是1950年之后出生的，你可以把这些 当作娱乐，或者是怀旧
45.This was Bert the Turtle.
这是那只叫贝尔的乌龟
46.This was basically an attempt to teach our schoolchildren that if we did get engaged in a nuclear confrontation and atomic war, then we wanted our school children
这个算是尝试着 教正在上学的孩子们 如果我们真的被卷入 一次核冲突或者核战争 我们希望我们的孩子们
47.to kind of basically duck and cover.
迅速躲到桌子下面
48.That was the principle. You — there would be a nuclear conflagration about to hit us, and if you get under your desk, things would be OK.
这就是基本的原则 核突击袭来时 如果你趴在桌子底下 一切就没事了
49.(Laughter) I didn’t do all that well in psychiatry in medical school, but I was interested, and I think this was seriously delusional.
（笑声） 我在医学院的时候 “精神病学”学得并不是很好，但是我很感兴趣 而我真的认为这样的措施完全是患有妄想症的表现
50.(Laughter) Secondly, we told people to go down in their basements and build a fallout shelter.
（笑声） 另外，我们告诉人们 躲到地下室去 把那里作为一个放射性微粒掩蔽所
51.Maybe it would be a study when we weren’t having an atomic war, or you could use it as a TV room, or, as many teenagers found out, a very, very safe place for a little privacy with your girlfriend.
也许我们可以好好研究研究，如果没有发生核战争 我们也许可以把那里当作看电视的房间，又或者，很多青少年会发现 这一个绝佳的和女朋友呆在一起的私密环境
52.And actually — so there are multiple uses of the bomb shelters.
事实上，这个防空洞可以又很多用处
53.Or you could buy a prefabricated bomb shelter and you could simply bury in the ground.
或者你可以买一个组装式的防空洞 你需要的只是把它埋到地里
54.Now, the bomb shelters at that point — let’s say you bought a prefab one. It would be a few hundred dollars, maybe up to 500 if you got a fancy one,
说到防空洞 假如你买了一个组装式的，这可能要花几百美元 如果你买一个好点儿的可能要花掉500美元
55.yet what percentage of Americans do you think ever had a bomb shelter in their house?
但是你们认为有百分之多少的美国人 曾经在他们的房子下面建有一个防空洞呢？
56.What percentage lived in a house with a bomb shelter?
有百分之多少的人住在有防空洞的房子里呢？
57.Less than two percent. About 1.4 percent of the population, as far as anyone knows, did anything — either making a space in their basement
少于总人口百分之二，只有大概百分之一点四的人 就我们目前所知 曾采取过措施 不管是腾出地下室作为避难所也好
58.or actually building a bomb shelter.
或者是真的建了一个防空洞也好
59.Many buildings — public buildings around the country — this is New York City — had these little civil defense signs, and the idea was that you would
很多建筑－全国各地的公共建筑 这是在纽约－有这样的民防系统标志 这个想法是说如果大家
60.run into one of these shelters and be safe and be safe from the nuclear weaponry.
跑到这些避难所里就会安全 不会受到核武器的威胁
61.And one of the greatest governmental delusions of all time was something that happened in the early days of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA as we now know,
政府有史以来 最大的幻想之一 是由早期的 联邦紧急情况管理署（FEMA）提出的
62.and are well aware of their behaviors from Katrina.
我们在卡特里娜飓风的时候已经领教过FEMA的本事了
63.Here is their first big public announcement.
这就是第一次 大范围的公告
64.They would propose — and they — actually there were about six volumes written on this — a crisis relocation plan that was dependent upon
政府提出 事实上他们给出了一个长达六本书的预案 一个应急转移计划 这个预案的前提是
65.the United States having three to four days warning that the Soviets were going to attack us.
美国能够提前三到四天得知 苏联将要对我们发动袭击
66.So the goal was to evacuate the target cities.
预案的目标是从这些可能遭到袭击的城市中撤离
67.We would move people out of the target cities into the countryside.
将这些城市的居民转移出来 转移到乡村
68.And I’m telling you, I actually testified at the Senate about the absolute ludicrous idea that we would actually evacuate, and actually have three or four days warning.
我可以告诉大家，我曾经在参议院作证 对于这个荒谬至极的想法 如果我们真的有能力疏散群众 并且可以提前三到四天预警
69.It was just completely off the wall.
这也太扯了吧
70.Turns out that they had another idea behind it, even though this was — they were telling the public it was to save us.
其实政府有另一个目的 虽然对公众说 这是为了保护大家
71.The idea was that we would force the Soviets to re-target their nuclear weapons — very expensive — and potentially double their arsenal
其实真正的目的是逼迫苏联 重新设定核袭击的目标－这是一笔非常大的开销－ 甚至逼迫他们将核武器数量提升一倍
72.to not only take out the original site, but take out sites where people were going.
从而（使核武器的攻击范围）不仅覆盖以前就覆盖到的地方 还覆盖到那些人们前往避难的地方
73.This was what apparently, as it turns out, was behind all this.
这显然就是这个计划背后的目的
74.It was just really, really frightening.
这实在是太可怕了
75.The main point here is we were dealing with a complete disconnect from reality.
我主要想说明的一点是：我们一直都在做一些 和现实情况不相关的事情
76.The civil defense programs were disconnected from the reality of what we’d seen in all-out nuclear war.
民防系统和一场全面爆发的核战争 完全不相符合
77.So organizations like Physicians for Social Responsibility, around 1979, started saying this a lot publicly.
因此，一些组织，比如“社会责任医师组织”（PSR） 在1979年左右，开始向公众进行宣传
78.They would do a bombing run. They’d go to your city, and they’d say, “Here’s a map of your city.
他们会做轰炸演习，比如来到你的城市， 给你一张城市的地图，
79.Here’s what’s going to happen if we get a nuclear hit.”
如果我们被核弹袭击了这里都会发生什么”
80.So no possibility of medical response to or meaningful preparedness for all-out nuclear war.
告诉你：如果真的发生一场全面的核战争 医疗救援将根本不可能实现 而且也无法实现进行有效的准备
81.So we had to prevent nuclear war if we expected to survive.
所以我们必须避免发生核战争 如果我们想活命的话
82.This disconnect was never actually resolved.
这个方案与现实脱节的问题一直没有得到根本解决
83.And what happened was — when we get in to Chapter Two of the nuclear threat era, which started back in 1945.
而现实是 当我们进入1945年开始的 核威胁时期的 第二阶段
84.Chapter Two starts in 1991.
第二个阶段是从1991年开始的
85.When the Soviet Union broke up, we effectively lost that adversary as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.
当苏联解体之后 美国实际上上失去了竞争对手 这个长久以来潜在的袭击者基本不复存在了
86.It’s not completely gone. I’m going to come back to that.
但苏联的威胁也不是完全消失了，我一会儿会再提到这一点
87.But from 1991 through the present time, emphasized by the attacks of 2001, the idea of an all-out nuclear war has diminished and the idea of a single-event
从1991年开始 直到现在 尤其是2001年的”9.11“事件说明 全面爆发的核战争的可能性 已经逐渐减小，
88.act of nuclear terrorism is what we have instead.
取而代之的 是单独的核恐怖袭击活动
89.Although the scenario has changed very considerably, the fact is that we haven’t changed our mental image of what a nuclear war means.
情况虽然和以前大不一样 但事实是 我们头脑里对于核战争的理解 并未改变
90.So I’m going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.
我一会儿会说明这意味着什么
91.So, what is a nuclear terror threat?
那么，什么是核恐怖袭击呢？
92.And there’s four key ingredients to describing that.
它有四个关键组成部分
93.First thing is that the global nuclear weapons — in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps — happens to be not uniformly secure.
第一个是全球范围内核武器 就是我之前给大家看的那张地图所显示的核武器储备 其实并不是全部都处于安全状态
94.And it’s particularly not secure in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.
尤其是那些前苏联所拥有的核武器 现在这些核武器在俄罗斯手中
95.There are many, many sites where warheads are stored and in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials, like highly enriched uranium and plutonium,
这些核弹头储存在很多地方 可事实上，这其中又很多地方对于储存 如高浓缩铀和钚这样的裂变物质而言
96.are absolutely not safe.
并不安全
97.They’re available to be bought, stolen, whatever.
这些核弹头可能被贩卖或是被偷窃
98.They’re acquirable, let me put it that way.
换句话说，它们可以被其他人得到
99.From 1993 through 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency documented 175 cases of nuclear theft, 18 of which involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium,
从1993年到2006年 国际原子能机构 记录在案的核失窃案件就有175起 其中18起和高浓缩铀和钚有关
100.the key ingredients to make a nuclear weapon.
这些是制造核武器的关键原料
101.The global stockpile of highly enriched uranium is about 1,300, at the low end, to about 2,100 metric tons.
全球的高浓缩铀储备 大约为1300吨 到2100吨之间
102.More than 100 megatons of this is stored in particularly insecure Russian facilities.
其中至少有100吨 储存在非常不安全的 俄罗斯的储备设施中
103.How much of that do you think it would take to actually build a 10 kiloton bomb?
大家觉得造一个一万吨级当量的核弹 大约需要多少高浓缩铀呢？
104.Well, you need about 75 pounds of it.
你需要大约75磅高浓缩铀
105.So, what I’d like to show you is what it would take to hold 75 pounds of highly enriched uranium.
所以，我想给大家展示一下 那就是 75磅高浓缩铀 大约是多少呢？
106.This is not a product placement. It’s just — in fact, if I was Coca Cola, I’d be pretty distressed about this, but — (Laughter) but —
我这可不是在做软广告。这只是… 事实上，如果我是可口可乐公司，我一定为此非常郁闷 笑声 但是
107.but basically, this is it.
基本上，就是这么多
108.This is what you would need to steal or buy out of that 100-metric-ton stockpile that’s relatively insecure to create the type of bomb
你只要从那100吨没有被安全储存的原料中 偷取或者购买这么多就够了 储存设施偷取的高浓缩铀总量 从而制造出一个核弹
109.that was used in Hiroshima.
威力相当于在广岛爆炸的那枚核弹
110.Now you might want to look at plutonium as another fissionable material that you might use in a bomb.
现在你们可能想看看如果是钚 另一种可用于制造核弹的裂变物质
111.That you’d need 10 to 13 pounds of plutonium.
你需要10到13磅钚
112.Now, plutonium — 10 to 13 pounds — this. This is enough plutonium to create a Nagasaki-size atomic weapon.
钚，10到13磅 这是这么多，这些钚足以 制造一个威力相当于在长崎爆炸的那枚原子弹
113.Now this situation, already I — you know, I don’t really like thinking about this although somehow I got myself a job where I have to think about it, so —
对于这个情况 你们知道，我并不愿意去想这个问题 虽然我阴差阳错地得到了一份工作 使我不得不去想
114.the point is that we’re very, very insecure in terms of developing this material.
重点是，我们发展这些裂变物质是 非常非常不安全的
115.The second thing is, what about the know-how?
第二个组成部分是，制造技术
116.And there’s a lot of controversy about whether terror organizations have the know-how to actually make a nuclear weapon.
有很多关于恐怖组织 是否真的掌握了 核武器制造技术的争论
117.Well, there’s a lot of know-how out there.
好吧，其实到处都能找到制造技术
118.There’s an unbelievable amount of knowhow out there.
而且关于这些制造技术的资料多得令人难以置信
119.There’s detailed information on how to assemble a nuclear weapon from parts.
这其中有如何将各个部件组装起来 成为一个核武器的详细信息
120.There’s books about how to build a nuclear bomb.
有教你如何制造核弹的书籍
121.There are plans for how to create a terror farm where you could actually manufacture and develop all the components and assemble it.
甚至还有建造一个“恐怖农场”所需的详细计划 在那儿你可以加工制造 所有的部件并进行组装
122.All of this information is relatively available.
所有这些信息都是相对而言容易找到的
123.If you have an undergraduate degree in physics, I would suggest — although I don’t, so maybe it’s not even true — but something close to that would allow you,
只要你有一个物理学本科学历 我猜- 虽然我没有…所以我说也不一定对－ 不过我想有一定物理水平的人
124.with the information that’s currently available, to actually build a nuclear weapon.
在这些可获得的信息帮助下 事实上是可以制造出核武器的
125.The third element of the nuclear terror threat is that, who would actually do such a thing?
第三个核恐怖袭击的要素是 谁可能会做出这样的事情？
126.Well, what we’re seeing now is a level of terrorism that involves individuals who are highly organized.
我们现在面对的是恐怖主义已经进入一个新的阶段 他们有严密的组织
127.They are very dedicated and committed.
他们极具献身精神并且异常忠诚
128.They are stateless.
他们没有国籍
129.Somebody once said, al Qaeda does not have a return address, so if they attack us with a nuclear weapon what’s the response, and to whom is the response?
有人曾说，“基地”组织 并没有一个“回信”地址 那么如果他们向我们发射核武器 我们怎么反击？反击谁？
130.And they’re retaliation-proof.
他们不怕报复
131.Since there is no real retribution possible that would make any difference, since there are people willing to actually give up their lives,
因为要对他们进行有效的惩罚 事实上是非常困难的 由于有人愿意牺牲自己
132.in order to do a lot of damage to us, it becomes apparent that the whole notion of this Mutually Assured Destruction would not work.
去摧毁别人 情况变得显而易见 “确保相互毁灭”这个概念 将不再适用
133.Here is Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, and Sulaiman was a key lieutenant of Osama Bin Laden.
这是苏莱曼·阿布·吉斯 苏莱曼是乌萨马·本·拉登的左膀右臂
134.He wrote many, many times statements to this effect: “We have the right to kill four million Americans, two million of whom should be children.”
他发表过很多言论说： ”我们有权利杀死四百万美国人， 其中两百万是儿童。”
135.And we don’t have to go overseas to find people willing to do harm, for whatever their reasons.
我们不用出国门都能找到 愿意发动袭击的人，不管是他们这么做的目的是什么
136.McVeigh and Nichols and the Oklahoma City attack in the 1990s was a good example of homegrown terrorists.
麦克威和尼克斯，俄克拉荷马城恐怖袭击 发生在90年代 这是一个很好的关于在美国长大的恐怖分子的例子
137.What if they had gotten their hands on a nuclear weapon?
如果他们手中有核武器会发生什么？
138.The fourth element is that the high-value U.S. targets are accessible, soft and plentiful.
第四个要素 那就是袭击对美国而言重要的目标 这些目标不仅可以靠近，而且脆弱，数量众多
139.This would be a talk for another day, but the level of the preparedness that the United States has achieved since 9/11 of ’01 is unbelievably inadequate.
这可以作为另外一个演讲来讨论，但只在如何应对这个层面上来说 美国在2001年“9/11”之后 所做的努力 简直是难以置信的不足
140.What you saw after Katrina is a very good indicator of how little prepared the United States is for any kind of major attack.
我们所看到的在“卡特里娜”飓风过后的情况 就能很好地说明 美国的准备是何等地不充分 在面临任何大规模地袭击的时候
141.Seven million ship cargo containers come into the United States every year.
每年有七百万集装箱货船 驶入美国
142.Five to seven percent only are inspected — five to seven percent.
其中只有百分之五到七接受了检查－ 百分之五到七
143.This is Alexander Lebed, who was a general that worked with Yeltsin, who talked about, and presented to Congress, this idea that the Russians had developed
这是亚历山大·列别德 他是和叶利钦时代的将军 他向国会介绍并展示了 俄罗斯设计的一种方案
144.these suitcase bombs. They were very low yield: 0.1 to one kiloton — Hiroshima was around 13 kilotons — but enough to do an unbelievable amount of damage.
这些手提箱炸弹似乎并不厉害 每个只有0.1到1千吨当量 在广岛爆炸的那枚可是一万三千吨当量的 但它们还是足以造成难以想象的破坏
145.And Lebed came to the United States and told us that many, many — more than 80 of the suitcase bombs were actually not accountable.
列别德曾来到美国 告诉我们有很多很多的－ 超过80个这样的手提箱炸弹 事实上是不受控制的
146.And they look like this. They’re basically very simple arrangements.
它们看起来就是这个样子。本质上来说结构非常简单。
147.You put the elements into a suitcase.
你把这些部件放进一只手提箱
148.It becomes very portable.
炸弹就变得非常便携。
149.The suitcase can be conveniently dropped in your trunk of your car.
这些手提箱非常容易就能放入 你的汽车后备箱
150.You take it wherever you want to take it and you can detonate it.
你可以把它带到任何你想去地方然后引爆它
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
