1.I’m here to enlist you in helping reshape the story about how humans and other critters get things done.
今天我来这里号召大家 一起来重构人类及其他生物做事的方式。
2.Here is the old story. We have already heard a little bit about it.
这里先说说过去的老方式。这个我们已经知道了一些。
3.Biology is war in which only the fiercest survive.
生物学是一场战争，只有最凶猛的生物可以生存。
4.Businesses and nations succeed only by defeating, destroying and dominating competition.
生意场上、国家之间，只有击败、 摧毁对方，占据主导地位才能成功。
5.Politics is about your side winning at all costs.
政治就是不计代价为自己一方赢得胜利。
6.But I think we can see the very beginnings of a new story beginning to emerge.
但我觉得我们看得到，一个新故事也渐渐开始上演。
7.It’s a narrative spread across a number of different disciplines, in which cooperation, collective action and complex interdependencies
这是个横跨很多不同领域的故事， 在这中间合作开放、协作行为及复杂的相互依存关系，
8.play a more important role.
扮演着更加重要的角色。
9.And the central, but not all-important role of competition and survival of the fittest, shrinks just a little bit to make room.
它的中心部分，不再是完全由绝对重要的竞争和适者生存占据 它萎缩了一些，留出了一部分空间。
10.I started thinking about the relationship between communication, media and collective action when I wrote Smart Mobs, and I found that when I finished the book I kept thinking about it.
当我开始写《聪明行动族》这本书时， 我开始思考沟通、媒体和集体行为三者间的关系。 我发现在写完书之后，我还是忍不住不停地去想。
11.In fact, if you look back, human communication media and the ways in which we organize socially have been co-evolving for quite a long time.
事实上，当你回顾过去，人类沟通媒体 及我们的社会组织方式，都是共同演进了相当长一段时间的。
12.Humans have lived for much, much longer than the approximately 10,000 years of settled agricultural civilization.
人类活在地球上的时间， 比起约一万年的定居农业文明要长得多。
13.In small family groups, nomadic hunters bring down rabbits, gathering food.
以小家庭为组织的游牧猎人，射杀兔子，采集食物。
14.The form of wealth in those days was enough food to stay alive.
当时财富的形式是有足够的食物可以生存。
15.But at some point they banded together to hunt bigger game.
但在某个阶段这些家庭组织在一起，去捕捉更大的猎物。
16.And we don’t know exactly how they did this.
我们不确定他们当时是如何做到的。
17.Although they must have solved some collective action problems.
不过他们一定解决了某些集体行动上的问题。
18.It only makes sense that you can’t hunt mastodons while you’re fighting with the other groups.
当你猎杀乳齿象时， 不能和其他组织争斗，这样才说的通。
19.And again, we have no way of knowing, but it’s clear that a new form of wealth must have emerged.
不过，我们也无从得知， 但很显然，当时一定有某种新的财富模式产生了。
20.More protein than a hunter’s family could eat before it rotted.
猎人家庭拥有了更多的蛋白质，等不到吃完就腐烂掉了。
21.So that raised a social question that I believe must have driven new social forms.
这样就产生了一个社会问题， 而我相信这个问题推动了新的社会模式的产生。
22.Did the people who ate that mastodon meat owe something to the hunters and their families?
那些吃乳齿象肉的人是否欠了 猎人和他们的家庭某些东西呢？
23.And if so, how did they make arrangements?
如果是这样，他们又是如何达成协议的呢？
24.Again, we can’t know, but we can be pretty sure that some form of symbolic communication must have been involved.
同样的，我们无法得知，但我们可以确信， 其中一定包含某种象征性的沟通。
25.Of course, with agriculture came the first big civilizations, the first cities built of mud and brick, the first empires.
当然，随着农业的发展，人类第一次迈向文明 出现了第一批泥土和砖块盖起来的城市以及第一个帝国。
26.And it was the administers of these empires who begin hiring people to keep track of the wheat and sheep and wine that was owed.
正是这些帝国的掌权人， 开始雇佣人力，来记录别人欠下的麦子、羊以及葡萄酒。
27.And the taxes that was owed on them by making marks, marks on clay at that time.
还有他人欠的税款等。 当时他们通过在粘土上做记号来记录这些。
28.Not too much longer after that, the alphabet was invented.
在那之后不久，人们就发明了字母表。
29.And this powerful tool was really reserved, for thousands of years, for the elite administrators who kept track of accounts for the empires.
这个强有力的工具从此被保存了好几千年， 专门给那些帮帝国记账的精英管理者所使用。
30.And then, another communication technology enabled new media.
然后，另一个新的沟通科技创造了新的媒体。
31.The printing press came along, and within decades, millions of people became literate.
印刷厂出现了，在几十年内， 就有数以百万计的人懂得了读写。
32.And from literate populations, new forms of collective action emerged in the spheres of knowledge, religion and politics.
而这些会读书写字的人们， 在知识、宗教、政治的领域里， 开创了新的集体行动的模式。
33.We saw scientific revolutions, the Protestant Reformation, constitutional democracies possible where they had not been possible before.
我们看见了科学革命，新教改革， 以及宪政民主等这些以前不可能的事物成为了可能。
34.Not created by the printing press, but enabled by the collective action that emerges from literacy.
这些不是由印刷媒体创造的， 而是文化所带动的集体行动中造就的。
35.And again, new forms of wealth emerged.
此外，各种新的财富模式也兴起了。
36.Now, commerce is ancient. Markets are as old as the crossroads.
现如今开来，经济是古老的，市场跟十字路口一样老。
37.But capitalism, as we know it, is only a few hundred years old, enabled by cooperative arrangements and technologies, such as the joint stock ownership company,
但就如我们所知，资本主义只有短短几百年而已， 它因合作和科技而得以实现， 例如合资股份公司，
38.shared liability insurance, double-entry book keeping.
共有责任保险及复式记账等。
39.Now, of course, the enabling technologies are based on the Internet.
当然，现在的科技都以网络为基础。
40.And in the many-to-many era, every desktop is now a printing press, a broadcasting station, a community or a marketplace.
在多对多沟通的时代，每个桌面电脑现在都成了印刷厂、 广播电台、社区或者市场。
41.Evolution is speeding up.
革命还在加速进行。
42.More recently, that power is untethering and leaping off the desktops.
近来，这种革命已经不再围绕台式机打转转了。
43.And very, very quickly we are going to see a significant proportion, if not the majority, human race walking around holding, carrying or wearing supercomputers
很快，我们将会看到一个占显著比例的一部分人，即使不是大多数， 将会拿着、揣着或戴着超级电脑走来走去，
44.linked at speeds greater than what we consider to be broadband today.
这些电脑互相连接，而其连接速度 会比我们今天所知道的宽频还要快的多。
45.Now, when I started looking into collective action, the considerable literature on it is based on what sociologists call “social dilemmas.”
当我开始研究集体行动时， 那可观的相关文献是基于被社会学家称为“社会困境”之上的。
46.And there are a couple of mythic narratives of social dilemmas.
关于社会困境有些虚构的描述。
47.I’m going to talk about two of them: the prisoner’s dilemma and the tragedy of the commons.
我将简要地说明其中两项， 即囚犯困境以及共有财产的悲哀。
48.Now, when I talked about this with Kevin Kelly, he assured me that everybody in this audience pretty much knows the details of the prisoner’s dilemma.
当我跟凯文·凯利聊起这些事时， 他向我保证在座的每位大概都知道 囚犯困境是怎么回事。
49.So I’m just going to go over that very, very quickly.
所以，我将很快速地重复一下。
50.If you have more questions about it, ask Kevin Kelly later. (Laughter).
如果你有更多的疑问，可以去问凯文·凯利，不过要等下。（笑）
51.The prisoner’s dilemma is actually a story that’s overlaid on a mathematical matrix that came out of the game theory in the early years of thinking about nuclear war:
囚犯困境实际上是一个 叠加在数学矩阵之上的故事， 这个故事来源于早期对于核战争思考的游戏理论：
52.two players who couldn’t trust each other.
两个玩家无法信任彼此。
53.Let me just say that every unsecured transaction is a good example of the prisoner’s dilemma.
我们可以说，每个无担保的交易， 都是囚犯困境的好例子。
54.Person with the goods, person with the money, because they can’t trust each other, are not going to exchange.
有商品的人和有钱的人， 因为无法信任彼此而无法进行交易。
55.Neither one wants to be the first one, or they’re going to get the sucker’s payoff.
没有人想迈出第一步， 因为这样他们就会吃亏。
56.But both lose, of course, because they don’t get what they want.
当然，他们都会输，因为他们都得不到想要的东西，
57.If they could only agree, if they could only turn a prisoner’s dilemma into a different payoff matrix, called an assurance game, they could proceed.
只有当他们同意将囚犯困境 变成信任赛局的报酬矩阵时，他们才能进行下一步。
58.20 years ago, Robert Axelrod used the prisoner’s dilemma as the probe of the biological question: If we are here because our ancestors were such fierce competitors,
二十年前，罗伯特阿克塞罗德利用囚犯困境， 进行对生物问题的探索。 如果我们活在此地是因为我们的祖先都是强悍的竞争者，
59.how does cooperation exist at all?
那么合作又怎么可能存在呢？
60.He started a computer tournament for people to submit prisoner’s dilemma strategies and discovered, much to his surprise, that a very, very simple strategy won.
阿克塞罗德开始了一个电脑竞赛 让人们针对囚犯困境，提交各自策略， 然后他意外的发现，其中最最简单的策略竟然赢了。
61.It won the first tournament, and even after everyone knew it won, it won the second tournament. That’s known as tit-for-tat.
这个策略赢了第一场比赛，甚至在大家都知道这件事之后， 还赢了第二场竞赛。这个策略就是以牙还牙。
62.Another economic game that may not be as well known as the prisoner’s dilemma, is the ultimatum game.
另一个经济游戏可能不像囚犯困境那样广为人知， 这就是最后通牒游戏
63.And it’s also a very interesting probe of our assumptions about the way people make economic transactions.
这也是个关于人们 如何进行经济交易的有趣探索。
64.Here’s how the game is played. There are two players.
游戏是这样玩的。 有两个玩家，
65.They’ve never played the game before.
双方都不没有玩过这游戏，
66.They will not play the game again. They don’t know each other.
他们也不会再玩这个游戏。他们知道彼此是谁。
67.And they are, in fact, in separate rooms.
实际上，他们在不同的房间里。
68.First player is offered a hundred dollars and is asked to propose a split: 50/50, 90/10.
给第一个玩家一百美元， 然后要求他做出分配：50/50，90/10。
69.Whatever that player wants to propose. The second player either accepts the split, both players are paid and the game is over.
随意怎么做都行。第二个玩家可以接受第一个玩家所提出的分配， 然后双方都获得金钱，游戏结束。
70.Or rejects the split. Neither player is paid and the game is over.
第二个玩家也可以拒绝这个分配，双方都拿不到钱，然后游戏结束。
71.Now, the fundamental basis of neoclassical economics would tell you it’s irrational to reject a dollar because someone you don’t know, in another room, is going to get 99.
新古典派经济的基础会告诉你， 拒绝任何一美元都是不明智的， 因为某个陌生人在另一个房间里将得到99美元。
72.Yet in thousands of trials with American and European and Japanese students, a significant percentage would reject any offer that’s not close to 50/50.
可是，在成千上万美国、欧洲以及日本学生的测试中， 有显著的比例的人会拒绝任何少于50/50的分配。
73.And although they were screened, and didn’t know about the game, and had never played the game before, proposers seemed to innately know this
尽管玩家被隔离而且从来不知道这个游戏， 而且从前也从没玩过这个游戏， 提议的人似乎天生就知道这个结果，
74.because the average proposal was surprisingly close to 50/50.
因为提议的平均值令人意外的接近50/50。
75.Now, the interesting part comes in more recently when anthropologists began taking this game to other cultures and discovered, to their surprise,
有趣的部分是最近才知道的， 当人类学者将这些游戏带到其他文化去时， 他们惊讶的发现，
76.that slash-and-burn agriculturalists in the Amazon, or nomadic pasturalists in Central Asia, or a dozen different cultures — each had radically different ideas of what is fair.
亚马逊的刀耕火种法的农耕民族， 或者是中亚的游牧民族，以及其他许多不同的文化—— 每个人对于公平都有极端不同的看法。
77.Which suggests that instead of there being an innate sense of fairness, that somehow the basis of our economic transactions can be influenced by our social institutions —
由此可见，与其说人类天生有对公平的共同观感， 倒不如说我们的经济交易基础 会被我们的社会制度所影响——
78.whether we know that or not.
无论我们是否意识到这点。
79.The other major narrative of social dilemmas is the tragedy of the commons.
另一个主要的社会困境就是共有财产的悲哀。
80.Garrett Hardin used it to talk about overpopulation in the late 1960s.
60年代末，加勒特·哈丁利用它来说明人口过剩的问题。
81.He used the example of a common grazing area in which each person, by simply maximizing their own flock, led to overgrazing and the depletion of the resource.
他例举某个共用畜牧的土地为例，在那里， 每个人只是简单的将他们畜牧的牛羊增加到最大值， 就会导致过度畜牧，资源耗尽。
82.He had the rather gloomy conclusion that humans will inevitably despoil any common pool resource in which people cannot be restrained from using it.
他得出了令人沮丧的结论， 人类将无可避免的掠夺任何公有的资源， 因为人们无法克制不去使用它们。
83.Now, Eleanor Ostrom, a political scientist, in 1990 asked the interesting question that any good scientist should ask, which is, is it really true that humans will always despoil commons?
奥斯特姆，政治科学家， 在1990年问了一个任何好的科学家都该问的有趣问题， 那就是，人类是否真的总会破坏公共资源呢？
84.So she went out and looked at what data she could find.
于是她就想看下能找到什么样的数据。
85.She looked at thousands of cases of humans sharing watersheds, forestry resources, fisheries, and discovered that, yes, in case after case,
她查看了几千个关于人们共用 水源、森林和渔业的个案，然后果然发现，各个案例都显示
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