1.I’m going to talk about your mindset.
我会来谈谈你们的心态。
2.Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗？
3.(Laughter) If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn’t it?
（笑） 如果不是，其中的一个就需要升级了，对吗？
4.When I talk to my students about global issues, and I listen to them in the coffee break, they always talk about “we” and “them.”
当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时， 我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。 他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。
5.And when they come back into the lecture room I ask them, “What do you mean with “we” and “them”?
然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候， 我问他们，“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”?
6.”Oh it’s very easy. It’s the western world and it’s the developing world.” They say.
“啊，那很简单，就是西方世界和发展中国家”，他们说到。
7.”We learned it in college.”
“我们在大学里学到的。”
8.And what is the definition then? “The definition?
那定义是什么呢？“定义？
9.Everyone knows,” they say.
每个人都知道，”他们说到，
10.But then you know, I press them like this.
但是你知道，我向这样给他们施加压力。
11.So one girl said, very cleverly, “It’s very easy.
所以，一个女孩说到，十分聪明的，“这很简单。
12.Western world is a long life in a small family.
西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。
13.Developing world is a short life in a large family.”
发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“
14.And I like that definition because it enabled me to transfer their mindset into the dataset.
我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去 将他们的心态转换 到我的数据中。
15.And here you have the dataset.
这里你有数据。
16.So you can see that what we have on this axis here is size of family. One, two, three, four, five children per woman on this axis.
你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着 家庭的大小。每个妇女有一，二，三，四，五 个小孩在这个坐标轴上。
17.And here, length of life, life expectancy, 30, 40, 50.
在这里，是生命的长度，预期寿命， 30、40、50.
18.Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
19.And really this is about the bedroom.
而这也和卧室有关。
20.Whether man and woman decide to have small family, and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭， 是否去照顾他们的孩子，以及他们的寿命长短。
21.It’s about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know, you can live long.
是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂，水和食物，你知道， 你可以活的长点。
22.And the students were right. It wasn’t that the world consisted — the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here, which had large families and short life. Developing world.
学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的– 世界所包括的在这里，一组在这里的国家， 他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。
23.And we had one set of countries up there which was the western world.
然后我们在这上面有一组国家 是西方国家。
24.They had small families and long life.
他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
25.And you are going to see here the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
然后你会看到在这里 发生的奇妙的事情，那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。
26.And then the developing countries applied soap and water, vaccination.
发展中国家应用了 肥皂和水，疫苗。
27.And all the developing world start to apply family planning.
以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。
28.And partly to USA who help to provide technical advice and investment.
美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供 技术建议和投资。
29.And you see all the world moves over to a two child family, and a life with 60 to 70 years.
而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去， 也向60到70的寿命移去。
30.But some countries remain back in this area here.
但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。
31.And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。
32.We have Liberia. We have Congo.
我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。
33.So we have countries living there.
所以我们还有国家生活在那里。
34.So the problem I had is that the worldview that my students had correspond to reality in the world the year their teachers were born.
所以我的问题是 我学生所有的世界观 还停留在他们老师所 出生的年代。
35.(Laughter) (Applause) And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
（笑） （鼓掌） 当我们，实际上，我们已经在全世界展示了这个。
36.I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington, last week, and I could see that the wrong concept even active people in the United States had.
上个星期，我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上， 而且我可以看到，甚至是在美国活跃人物上 都有这样的错误的概念。
37.That they didn’t realize the improvement of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
他们没有意识到墨西哥，中国 相对与美国的进步。
38.Look here when I move them forward.
看这里，当我把他们向前移动时。
39.Here we go.
开始了。
40.They catch up. There’s Mexico.
他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。
41.It’s on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。
42.There was less than five percent of the specialists in global health that was aware of this.
这里要注意的是， 全球健康专家中，只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。
43.This great nation, Mexico, has the problem that arms are coming from north, across the borders. So they had to stop that.
这个伟大的国家，墨西哥， 问题是大量武器来自北方， 穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。
44.Because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
因为，你知道，他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
45.But if I would change this axis here, look, and I would instead, here, I would put income per person.
但是如果我把坐标轴换一下，看， 除了这样做，这里，我会把每个人的收入放上。
46.Income per person. I can put that here.
人均收入。我可以放在这里。
47.And we will then see a completely different picture.
然后我们会看到 一个完全不同的图片。
48.By the way, I’m teaching you how to use our website, Gapminder World, while I’m correcting this because this is a free utility on the net.
顺便说一下，我在教你们 怎么使用我们的网站，Gapminder World（代沟提醒世界）。 我为什么会纠正这个？ 因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。
49.And when I now finally got it right, I can go back 200 years in history.
而且我终于把它做对了， 我可以在历史上回去200年。
50.And I can find United States up there.
这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。
51.And I can let the other countries be shown.
而且我可以显示其他的国家。
52.And now I have income per person on this axis.
现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。
53.And the United States only had someone 2,000 dollar, at that time.
美国每个人只有2000美元，在那时。
54.And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years, on par with Afghanistan today.
而且寿命的期望值是35到40年， 是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
55.And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
我现在马上要展示的，就是世界发生了什么。
56.This is instead of studying history for one year at university.
这不是在学习历史 而是在大学里的一年。
57.You can watch me for one minute now and you’ll see the whole thing.
你可以看我一分钟，然后你就会看到一切。
58.(Laughter) You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe, and the yellow one, which is United States, they get richer and richer and also
（笑） 你可以看到这些棕色的气泡，是西欧， 这些黄色的是美国， 他们是怎样变的越来越富有，
59.start to get healthier and healthier.
同时是这样变的越来越健康。
60.And this is now 100 years ago where the as the rest of the world remains behind.
现在这个是100年前 当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。
61.Here we come. And that was the influenza.
我们开始了。那就是大流感。
62.That’s why we are so scared about flu isn’t it?
那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感，对吗？
63.It’s still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。
64.And then we come up. And not until independence started.
然后我们又上升了。直到 我们独立。
65.Look here you have China over there, you have India over there, and this is what has happened.
看看你在这里有中国， 在那里有印度， 这就是所发生的。
66.You note there, that we have Mexico up there.
你可以注意到，我们在这上面有墨西哥。
67.Mexico is not at all on par with the United States.
墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。
68.But they are quite close.
但是他们是十分接近。
69.And especially it’s interesting to see China and the United States, during 200 years.
而且在这200年里去看看 美国和中国 是十分有趣的。
70.Because I have my oldest son now working for Google, after Google acquired this software.
因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作， 当谷歌收购了这款软件后。
71.Because in fact this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet for many years and developed this.
因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里 花了很多时间来开发这个。
72.And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
而我的小儿子，在北京学习中文。
73.So they come in with the two perspectives I have. You know?
所以我有他们的两个不同的观点，你知道？
74.And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing, in China, he got a long term perspective.
我的儿子，在北京学习的最小的那一个。 在中国，他有一个长期的观点。
75.Where as when my oldest son, who work in Google, he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
而在谷歌工作的大儿子， 他得在一季度，或半年里开发成功。
76.Or, Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
或者谷歌是十分大方的，所以他可以有一年或两年。
77.But in China they look generation after generation because they remember the very embarrassing period, for 100 years, where they went backwards.
但是在中国，你看的是一代又一代的时间 因为他们记得 那100年十分尴尬的历史， 那时间他们向后退了。
78.And then they would remember the first part of the last century, which was really bad.
而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的 开端是十分不好的。
79.And we could go by this so-called great leap forward.
我们把这叫做大跃进。
80.But this was 1963.
但是在1963年。
81.Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China.
毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。
82.And then he died. And then Deng Xiaoping started this amazing move forward.
然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始 了这奇妙的进步。
83.Isn’t it strange to see that United States first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich.
难道这不很奇怪吗？看到美国是 先开始增加经济，然后慢慢的变富有。
84.Where as China could get healthy much early.
然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。
85.Because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition, and then also benefits of penicillin and vaccines, and family planning.
因为他们应用了教育的知识，营养， 他们也同时使用了青霉素 和疫苗，和家庭计划。
86.And Asia could have social development before they got the economic development.
这样亚洲是先有的社会发展 后有了经济发展。
87.So to me, as a public health professor, it’s not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
所以对我来说，一个公共健康教授， 是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
88.Because what you see here, what you see here is the flat world of Thomas Friedman.
因为你所看到的这里和这里 就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。
89.Isn’t it?
不是吗？
90.It’s not really really flat.
这不是真的真的很平。
91.But the middle income countries, and this is where I suggest to my students, stop using the concept ” developing world.”
但是那些中等收入国家， 这里我就会向我的同学建议 停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。
92.Because after all, talking about developing world is like having two chapters in the history of United States.
因为毕竟，谈论发展中国家 就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
93.The last chapter is about the present, and president Obama.
而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统，奥巴马总统。
94.And the other is about the past.
另一个部分则是有关过去。
95.Where you cover everything from Washington to Eisenhower.
当你把从华盛顿时代 到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。
96.Because Washington to Eisenhower, that is what we find in developing world.
因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔 这就是我们所谓的发展中国家
97.We could actually go from Mayflower to Eisenhower, and that would be put together into a developing world.
我们其实可以从五月花时代 到艾森豪威尔， 那就是整个的发展中世界。
98.Which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way.
那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。
99.Which have great entrepreneurs, but also have the collapsing countries, So how could we make a better sense about this?
那也有企业家， 但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。 所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢？
100.Well one way of trying is to see whether we could look at income distribution.
恩，其中一个是看看我们能否 观察收入的分布。
101.This is the income distribution of peoples in the world, from one dollar. This is where you have food to eat.
这是世界人口的收入分布， 从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。
102.These people go to bed hungry.
这些人是饿着睡觉的。
103.And this is the number of people.
这是这些人的数量。
104.This is 10 dollar, whether you have a public or a private health service system. This is where you can provide health service for your family, and school for your children.
这是10美元，不管你有公共的或 私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始 为你的家庭提供将康服务，为你的儿童提供学校的地方。
105.And this is OECD countries.
这是经合组织国家。
106.Green, Latin America, East Europe.
绿色的是，拉丁美洲，东欧。
107.This is East Asia. And the light blue there is South Asia.
这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
108.And this is how the world changed.
而这是世界上这样变化的。
109.It changed like this.
它像这样发生了变化。
110.Can you see how it’s growing? And how hundreds of millions and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
你可以看到是怎样增长的吗？看到那数以万亿的收入 是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的？
111.And it goes over here.
然后它移到这里。
112.And I come now, into projections.
这里是我对未来的预测。
113.But I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there. You know. Because …
不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来，因为…
114.(Laughter) Because there the projections are not valid any longer.
（笑） 因为这些预测都不准了。
115.Probably the world will do this.
大概世界会这样做。
116.And then it will continue forward like this.
然后它会持续像这样。
117.But more or less this is what will happen.
但是多多少少会这样。
118.And we have a world which can not be looked upon as divided.
而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
119.We have the high income countries here, with United States as a leading power.
我们在这有高收入国家， 美国作为领队。
120.We have the emerging economies in the middle, that provide a lot of the funding for the bailout.
我们在中间有新兴经济体， 那给我们提供了救助的基础。
121.And we have the low income countries here.
然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。
122.Yeah this is a fact that from where the money come.
对，我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。
123.They have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
在过去十年里，他们一直都在储蓄。
124.And here we have the low income countries where entrepreneurs are.
而这里我们有低收入国家， 那里聚集着大量的企业家。
125.And here we have the countries in collapse and war, like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家， 像阿富汗，索马里，部分刚果，达尔富尔。
126.We have all this at the same time.
这些都发生在同一时间。
127.That’s why it’s so problematic to describe what has happened in the developing world.
那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么 是如此的困难。
128.Because it’s so different, what has happened there.
因为那里所发生的非常不同。
129.And that’s why I suggest a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
那也是我为什么会建议 我们用另一种态度去看待它。
130.And you have huge difference within countries also.
我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。
131.I heard that your departments here were by regions.
我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。
132.Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Arab states, East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲，南亚， 东亚，阿拉伯国家， 东欧，拉丁美洲和经合组织。
133.And on this axis GDP.
这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。
134.And on this, heath, child survival.
这里是健康和儿童存活率。
135.And it doesn’t come as a surprise that Africa, south of Sahara, is at the bottom.
而且这一点也不让人吃惊 在非洲，沙哈拉南部，在底端。
136.But when I split it, when I split it into country bubbles, the size of the bubbles here is the population.
但是当我把他们分开，当我把他们分成 国家的气泡是， 这里气泡的大小的人口。
137.Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius is completely different.
你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。
138.There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。
139.And I can split the others. Here the South Asian, Arab world.
当我把其他的也分开是。东亚， 阿拉伯世界。
140.Now all you different departments.
你现在在不同的地区都有不同。
141.East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
东欧，拉丁美洲，和经合组织国家。
142.And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。
143.We can not put it into two parts.
我们不能分成连个部分。
144.It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here, building, building countries.
这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代， 建造国家。
145.It’s Lincoln here, advancing them.
这是林肯，在升级他们。
146.It’s Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。
147.And then it’s United States today, up here.
然后这是今天的美国，在这里上面。
148.And we have countries all this way.
我们是这样创造了国家。
149.Now this is the important thing of understanding how the world has changed.
现在是了解世界怎样 变化的关键。
150.At this point I decided to make a pause.
在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。
151.(Laughter) And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world, to convey a thank to the U.S. taxpayers, for Demographic Health Survey.
（笑） 这就是我的任务，代表这世界其他国家， 来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢， 为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。
152.Many are not aware of — no this is not a joke.
许多人还没有意识到 — 不这不是玩笑。
153.This is very serious.
这很严肃。
154.It is due to USA’s continuous sponsoring during 25 years of the very good methodology for measuring child mortality that we have a grasp of what’s happening in the world.
在这25年里，依靠 美国的资助，我们有一个 非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法， 这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。
155.(Applause) And it is U.S. government at its best, without advocacy, providing facts, that it’s useful for the society.
（掌声） 而这个美国政府，正在做最大的努力 没有宣传，去提供一些 对社会有用的事实。
156.And providing data free of charge, on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
也在因特网上提供免费的数据 供世界享用。十分感谢你。
157.Quite in the opposite of the World Bank, who compiled data with government money, tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
世界银行则是在十分的对立面， 用政府和税收的钱来编译数据， 然后又加入一点利润将他们出售，
158.in a very inefficient, Guttenberg way.
通过十分没有效率的，古滕贝格的方式。
159.(Applause) But the people doing that at the world bank are among the best in the world.
（掌声） 但是那些在世界银行所工作的人 都是世界上最优秀的。
160.And they are highly skilled professionals.
他们在他们的范围内都是专家。
161.It’s just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies to deal with the world in a modern way, as we do.
只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案 去以现代的方法来处理国际问题，就在我们处理的时候。
162.And when it comes to free data and transparency, United States of America is one of the best.
当这遇到免费和透明的数据时， 美国是最好之一。
163.And that doesn’t come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。
164.(Laughter) And I’m not paid to come here, no.
（笑） 我不是为钱来到这的，不是。
165.I would like to show you what happens with the data, what we can show with this data.
我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么, 以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。
166.Look here. This is the world.
看这里，这是世界。
167.With income down there, and child mortality.
收入在这里，然后儿童死亡率。
168.And what has happened in the world?
世界发生了什么？
169.Since 1950, during the last 50 years we have had a fall in child mortality.
自从1950年，到过去50年里 儿童死亡率有一个下降。
170.And this is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
这是靠国家安全局才知道的。
171.And we had an increase in income.
我们在收入上有一个增加。
172.And the blue former developing countries are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
这些蓝色的发展中国家 和前工业化国家混合在一起。
173.And we have a continuum. But we still have, and that is, of course, Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries as we have had, always, in history.
然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有，那就是，当然了 刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的 一些贫穷国家，在历史上。
174.And that’s the bottom billion, where we’ve heard, today, about a completely new approach to do it.
最底层的一亿人口，就如我们当今所听说的一样， 急需一个新的解决方案。
175.And how fast has this happened?
这一切发生得有多快呢？
176.Well MDG 4.
好吧，第4个千年发展目标。
177.United States have not been so eager to use MDG 4.
美国政府还不是那么急于 使用第4个千年发展目标。
178.But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it.
但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。
179.Because it’s the only child mortality that we can measure.
因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。
180.And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。
181.Let’s see what Sweden have done.
让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。
182.We used to boast about fast social progress.
我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。
183.That’s where we were, 1900.
我们是在，1990.
184.1900, Sweden was there.
1990年，瑞典在那里。
185.Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990.
和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率，1990.
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