HansRosling_东方崛起【中英文对照】

1.Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John’s Medical College in Bangalore.
很久以前， 当我还是24岁之时， 我尚是一名位于班加罗尔的圣约翰医学院的学生。
2.I was a guest student during one month of a public health course.
当时，我是一名为期一个月的 公共卫生课程的旁听生。
3.And that changed my mindset forever.
我的思维模式从那时起开始改变。
4.The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset.
这是一门好课程，但改变我思维模式的 不是这门课程本身。
5.It was the brutal realization, the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me.
而是因在第一天早晨， 我发现印度学生的表现 居然比我还要优秀，这个残酷的现实。
6.(Laughter) You see, I was a study nerd.
（笑声） 如你所见，我是一个书呆子。
7.I loved statistics from a young age.
当我年轻时，我对数据有狂热的喜好。
8.And I studied very much in Sweden.
而且我在瑞典学习时很用功。
9.I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
我曾在所有课程中都名列前茅。
10.But in St. John’s, I was in the lower quarter.
但在圣约翰时，我却名落孙山了。
11.And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden.
我不得不承认，印度学生 比瑞典学生要刻苦努力多了。
12.They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times.
他们会三番四次地 阅读他们的课本。
13.In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
而在瑞典，读完一次后，我们就去夜夜笙歌了。
14.(Laugher) And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed.
（笑声） 这对于我的 意义是在于 我生而知之的思维方式 第一次 被改变了。
15.And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever.
我意识到 西方世界或许 不再是霸权国家了。
16.And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
我想你们都大概有这种体验。
17.It’s that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world.
那种遇到某个人使你的世界观 发生天翻地覆地改变的经历。
18.It’s not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
这些都不是数据，虽然我试着让它听起来有趣。
19.And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen — that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world,
现在， 我，将在这个台上， 来预测亚洲 什么时候会 重夺其导向世界的 主导地位，
20.as it used to be, over thousands of years.
正如过去数千年一般。
21.And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
而且我会尽可能地 得到一个精准的预测 来说明 印度和中国的人均收入 何时会达到西方的水平。
22.And I don’t mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. — that’s a piece of cake, with one billion people.
我不是指整体的经济实力， 对于印度来说 赶超英国的整体经济实力 是小菜一碟，因为他们拥有十亿人口。
23.But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
但是我所想见得是 印度和中国的 人均收入 什么时候会追上英国和美国的水平？
24.But I will start with a historical background.
首先，我会介绍一下历史背景。
25.And you can see my map if I get it up here. No?
请问你们可以看到我的数据图么？可以吗？
26.I would start at 1858.
我会从1858年开始。
27.1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West.
1858年是西方科技水平 大跃进的一年。
28.That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
在这一年，维多利亚皇后 可以和布坎南总统 通过跨大西洋电报电缆 来交流，这是有史以来的第一次。
29.And they were the first to “Twitter” transatlantically.
他们，是第一对跨大西洋的推客。
30.(Laughter) (Applause) And I’ve been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
（笑声） （鼓掌） 而我，通过神奇的谷歌和网络 找到了布坎南总统 回发给维多利亚皇后的电报。
31.And it ends like this: “This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world.”
它的结尾时这样的：“这个电报 将是一种可向世界传播宗教、 文明、自由和法律的神奇工具。”
32.Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
这句话很动听。可是，我很好奇 他说的是何种自由，以及是何人的自由。
33.And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
这势必让我们回想起 在1858年时，世界各地都发生了什么。
34.Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia.
因为1858年 同时也是亚洲历史的 分水岭。
35.1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces.
1858年， 印度所爆发的 民族大起义 被英军镇压了。
36.And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
印度因此继续忍受了89年的外人统治。
37.1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
中国在1858年 再一次在鸦片战争中输给了英国。
38.And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, were allowed to trade freely in China.
因此在签订的（不平等）条约中 说明外国人在中国可自由通商。
39.It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
这意味着用鸦片换取中国商品。
40.In 1858 in Japan, was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
日本在1858年， 被迫签订安政条约 以及承认美日贸易优先权。
41.And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
因为他们在这几年 被东京港里的黑船威胁。
42.But, Japan, in contrast to India and China maintained its national sovereignty.
但日本仍拥有国家主权， 不像印度和中国那样。
43.And let’s see how much difference that can make.
让我们来看看这将带来多大的差异。
44.And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country.
我将带着这些泡泡 回到Gapminder软件上， 在这里，每个泡泡都代表着一个国家。
45.The size of the bubble here is the population.
人口是由泡泡的大小所代表。
46.On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
一般横轴都代表人均收入。
47.And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
竖轴则代表人均寿命。
48.And I also bring an innovation here.
今天，我又一次带来了一件发明。
49.I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
为了绿色印度，我将激光束转换成 一根生态友好型木棒。
50.(Applause) And we will see, you know.
（鼓掌） 正如你们所料一样。
51.Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there.
1858年，印度和中国是在这里， 日本则在那里。 美国和英国 则更是在那边。
52.And I will start the world like this.
世界将从这样开始。
53.India was not always like this level.
印度以前不是这样的。
54.Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China
让我们回想百年以前的 印度和中国， 那时，两国的人均收入
55.was even above that of Europe.
是比欧洲的水平还高。
56.But 1850 had already been many many years of foreign domination, and India had been deindustralized.
然而，在1850年时，两国已饱受多年的外国侵略， 何况印度的工业能力还被削弱。
57.And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
而经济正在发展的国家 则是英美两国。
58.And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up.
在十九世纪末时，他们的国民身体素质也得以改善， 至于日本则开始奋起直追。
59.India was trying down here.
偏偏印度还深陷泥沼。
60.Can you see how it starts to move there?
你们可以看见他的确是在动吗？
61.But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
国家主权完整使日本受益匪浅。
62.And Japan is trying to move up there.
日本一直在尝试赶上去。
63.And it’s the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States.
新世界到了。英美两国的国民 身体素质更加强化了。
64.But  careful now — we are approaching the First World War.
但要小心，一战的脚步已经近了。
65.And the First World War, you know, we’ll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
正如你所料，在一战期间 会爆发很多经济问题和导致死亡。
66.United Kingdom is going down.
英国在走下坡路。
67.And now comes the Spanish flu also.
西班牙流感又接踵而来。
68.And then after the First World War, they continue up.
一战后，他们继续向上攀升。
69.Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner.
印中两国由于仍被外来政权统治着， 因此他们还在下面的角落里。
70.Not much has happened.
无甚变化。
71.They have grown their population but not much more.
只是人口有所增加罢了。
72.In the 1930’s now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy.
现在到了三十年代， 日本正处于战争时期， 国民寿命普遍低下。
73.And the Second World War was a really terrible event, also economically for Japan.
二战对日本来说，尤其在经济上， 是一场噩梦。
74.But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
但战后他们恢复的相对迅速。
75.And we are moving into the new world.
我们正迈向新世界。
76.In 1947 India finally gained its independence.
印度终于于1947年 成独立国家。
77.And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there.
他们可以升起他们自己的国旗并且成为一主权国家， 却仍举步维艰。
78.(Applause) In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world.
(鼓掌) 在1949年，新中国的诞生 使全世界都为之惊奇。
79.And what happened?
之后发生了什么？
80.What happens in the after independence?
在独立之后发生了什么？
81.You can see that the health started to improve.
正如你所见，国民的健康有所进步。
82.Children started to go to school.
儿童们有学上。
83.Health services were provided.
医疗设施也逐渐出现。
84.This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
现正是大跃进时期，中国摔了一大跤。
85.It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
这是由毛泽东统一计划的。
86.China recovered. Then they said, “Nevermore, stupid central planning.”
中国恢复元气后， 他们则说：“前事不忘，后事之师。”
87.But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
中国又日趋上升，印度则是吊车尾。
88.And they were catching up indeed.
他们都正迎头赶上。
89.And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.
两国的国民健康大大改善， 然后经济水平仍有待提高。
90.And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left.
现在来到1978年，毛泽东已去世， 新一代领导出现。
91.And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
而邓小平正冉冉上升。
92.And he said, “Doesn’t matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.”
他说：“不管 黑猫白猫，抓到老鼠 就是好猫。”
93.Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do.
因为这正是 这两只大猫想做的。
94.And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
正如你们所知，中印两只大猫 是想要抓住那边的老鼠。
95.And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy.
因此他们决定不仅要发展教育和公共卫生， 也要开始发展经济。
96.And the market reformer was successful there.
改革开放是成功的。
97.In ’92 India follows with a market reform.
在1992年印度也开始了经济改革。
98.And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
他们走的很近， 而且两国颇多相似之处， 而且差异不多。
99.And here they march on. And will they catch up?
他们齐头并进。可是能迎头赶上么？
100.This is the big question today.
这是现今世界的一个大问题。
101.There they are today.
今天，他们处在哪里。
102.Now what does it mean that the — (Applause) the averages there — this is the average of China.
这说明了—— (掌声) 他们的平均水平，这是中国的平均水平。
103.If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up.
假如将中国分开来看， 看，上海已经赶上了。
104.Shanghai is already there.
上海已经在上面哪里。
105.And it’s healthier than the United States.
而且市民的平均寿命比美国还长。
106.But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there.
然而，贵州，中国最穷的 一个内陆省，在那里。
107.And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
假如我将贵州分成城市和乡下两部分， 贵州乡下仍继续下滑。
108.You see these enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.
在中国的迅速经济发展下， 隐藏着极大的问题。
109.And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
我们再来看看印度， 我们会看到另一种不平等。
110.The geographical, macrogeographical difference is not so big.
从地理的角度上来看，差距不大。
111.Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
北方邦，是印度的最大邦， 比起其他邦来说是较为贫穷落后的。
112.Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy.
克拉拉邦则处于领先地位， 而且就公共卫生一项来说已赶上了美国， 偏偏不包括经济。
113.And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward.
这里，孟买的所在邦，马哈拉斯特拉邦， 正向前迈进。
114.Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states.
在印度，不平等是体现在邦内， 而非邦与邦之间。
115.And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
这并不是一件坏事。
116.If you have a lot inequity, macrogeographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term, to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
假如在宏观地理上有太大差距， 这将会成为一长期隐患， 但在每个区域都有一经济发展中心，
117.relatively close to where poor people are living.
并且离穷人居住区近的话，这将会更好。
118.No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
看，这还有一不平等的问题。看这里，美国。
119.(Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame.
(笑声) 他已将我的框框撑破。
120.Washington, D.C. went out here.
华盛顿特区已跑到那里。