1.I told you three things last year.
去年我们讲了3个问题
2.I told you that the statistics of the world have not been made properly available.
我们已经谈过了 世界的统计资料并不为人们所知
3.Because of that, we still have the old mindset of developing and industrialized countries, which is wrong.
所以我们仍错误的 把世界划分为发达国家与发展中国家
4.And that animated graphics can make a difference.
但是新的统计数据动画技术将引领变革
5.Things are changing.
变革已经开始
6.And today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page, it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.
今天，在联合国统计署的官方网站上 通告说5月1日以后所有数据库向公众开放
7.(Applause) And if I could share the image with you on the screen.
（掌声） 我们一起看大屏幕
8.So three things had happened.
（过去1年中）发生了3件事
9.U.N. opened their statistic databases, and we have a new version of the software up working as a beta on the net, so you don’t have to download it any longer.
联合国开放了他们的数据库 我们的软件推出了新版本 其测试版可以在线使用 所以今后大家再也不用下载了
10.And let me repeat what you saw last year.
首先我们回顾一下去年的内容
11.The bubbles are the countries.
每个球代表一个国家
12.Here you have the fertility rate — the number of children per woman — and there you have the length of life in years.
X轴是生育率，每个妇女的育儿数 Y轴是平均寿命年数
13.This is 1950 — those were the industrialized countries, those were developing countries.
当前数据是1950年，这些是发达国家 这些是发展中国家
14.At that time there was a “we” and “them.”
那时世界是由“我们和他们”构成的
15.There was a huge difference in the world.
那时候各国差距很大
16.But then it changed, and it went on quite well.
后来世界往好的方向上改变了
17.And this is what happens.
这就是变化的过程
18.You can see how China is the red, big bubble; the blue there is India.
那个大的红球代表中国 而那个大的蓝球代表印度
19.And they go over all this … I’m going to try to be a little more serious this year in showing you how things really changed.
（今年我想 稍微严肃一些地向你们展示 世界的发展过程）
20.And it’s Africa which stands out as the problem down here, doesn’t it?
而这些（小的深蓝色球）非洲国家 正是问题所在
21.Large families still, and the HIV epidemic brought down the countries like this.
庞大的家庭，艾滋病流行 导致平均寿命下降
22.This is more or less what we saw last year, and this is how it will go on into the future.
这基本上就是去年我们所讲的内容 而这是对未来的预测
23.And I will talk on, is this possible?
我得说这些只是可能发生的
24.Because you see now, I presented statistics that don’t exist.
因为现在我们看到的 实际上是不存在的统计数据
25.Because this is where we are.
这是目前的实际情况
26.Will it be possible that this will happen?
也许未来的发展会像这样
27.I cover my lifetime here, you know?
（这段时间）包含了我的人生
28.I expect to live 100 years.
我期望活到100岁
29.And this is where we are today.
这是今天的世界
30.Now could we look here at instead the economic situation in the world?
我们看看世界的经济情况
31.And I would like to show that against child survival.
和对应的儿童健康状况
32.We’ll swap the axis: here you have child mortality — that is, survival — four kids dying there, 200 dying there.
我们翻转一下Y轴 现在Y轴是儿童死亡率 这里是千分之四的死亡率 而那里是千分之两百的死亡率
33.And this is GDP per capita on this axis.
X轴是人均GDP
34.And this was 2007.
当前是2007年的数据
35.And if I go back in time, I’ve added some historical statistics — here we go, here we go, here we go — not so much statistics 100 years ago.
如果我们回到过去，我们增加了一些历史数据 100年前没有多少数据统计
36.Some countries still had statistics.
只有少数国家有数据可查
37.We are looking down in the archive, and where we are down into 1820, there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.
我们参考了历史文献的记载 现在我们看到的是1820年的数据 那时只有奥地利和瑞典人识数
38.(Laughter) But they were down here, they had 1,000 dollars per person per year.
（笑声） 但他们在下边，每人每年1000美元的收入
39.And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.
五分之一的孩子活不到1岁生日
40.So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.
这就是那时的世界。再看看世界的发展
41.How they got slowly richer and richer, and they add statistics.
这些国家慢慢变得富有 另一些国家开始拥有统计数据
42.Isn’t it beautiful when they get statistics?
（这些数据是不是很漂亮？
43.You see the importance of that?
大家发现统计的重要性了吧）
44.And here, children don’t live longer.
但是儿童健康并没有得到很大的改善
45.The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe, because most of this statistics is Europe.
在19世纪70年代左右，欧洲的孩子们很不幸 因为这些数据都来自欧洲国家
46.It was only by the turn of the century that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.
直到19世纪与20世纪交替的时候 90%以上的孩子能庆祝1岁生日
47.This is India coming up, with the first data from India.
现在出现的是印度（蓝球）
48.And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.
而这个（黄球）是美国，人们的钱包越来越鼓
49.And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.
中国（大的红球）出现在远处的角落
50.And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health, not getting so rich.
毛泽东时代，中国儿童健康不断改善 但是收入的增加很缓慢
51.There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money, it moves this way over here.
毛泽东去世后，邓小平带来了金钱 中国朝着高收入的方向发展
52.And the bubbles keep moving up there, and this is what the world looks like today.
其他国家也都在发展 这就是今天我们的世界
53.(Applause) Let us have a look at the United States.
（掌声） 现在我们看看美国
54.We have a function here — I can tell the world, “Stay where you are.”
（新软件）多了一个选项，可以让世界（其他国家）静止
55.And I take the United States — we still want to see the background — I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.
我们把美国选定，把背景调亮 这样可以看到其他国家
56.And we can see that the United States goes to the right of the mainstream.
接着我们回到过去 美国始终在主流的右侧
57.They are on the money side all the time.
他们总和钱站在同一边
58.And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India — present, contemporary India.
回到1915年，当时的美国 和今天的印度差不多
59.And that means United States was richer, but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.
当时的美国（比今天的印度）更富有 儿童死亡率却更高
60.And look here — compare to the Philippines of today.
再看这里，菲律宾（与美国）相比
61.The Philippines of today has almost the same economy as the United States during the First World War.
菲律宾今天的经济水平 与一战时期的美国差不多
62.But we have to bring United States forward quite a while to find the same health of the United States as we have in the Philippines.
但美国需要（从一战后）发展多少年 才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢 才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢
63.About 1957 here, the health of the United States is the same as the Philippines.
直到1957年，美国的儿童健康水平 才和今天的菲律宾一样
64.And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized, is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America, are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,
这就是世界发展的剧本，很多人称之为“全球化” 也就是说在亚洲，阿拉伯国家和拉丁美洲 其健康和教育水平的发展速度
65.having human resources than they are economically.
远超过了经济发展的速度
66.There’s a discrepancy in what’s happening today in the emerging economies.
而在今天的新兴国家中 发展的差异
67.There now, social benefits, social progress, are going ahead of economical progress.
更多的体现在社会的进步 而不是经济的发展
68.And 1957 — the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.
1957年美国的经济水平与今天的智利相近
69.And how long do we have to bring United States to get the same health as Chile has today?
但美国需要发展多少年 才能达到智利今天的儿童健康水平呢
70.I think we have to go, there — we have 2001, or 2002 — the United States has the same health than Chile.
（我们要等到）2002年 美国的儿童健康水平才和今天的智利一样
71.Chile’s catching up!
智利已经赶上来了！
72.Within some years Chile may have better child survival than the United States.
几年后智利的儿童健康 可能会超过美国
73.This is really a change, that you have this lag of more or less 30, 40 years’ difference on the health.
这真是很大的变化，在不同的国家 经济发展和健康水平的差距有30，40年
74.And behind the health is the educational level.
而在这个背后，有教育的差距
75.And there’s a lot of infrastructure things, and general human resources are there.
还有基础设施的差距 以及人力资源的差距等等
76.Now we can take away this — and I would like to show you the rate of speed, the rate of change, how fast they have gone.
我们现在把其他国家去掉 再来看看不同的国家 其发展速度有怎样的差异
77.And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.
回到1920年，先选定日本
78.And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.
选定瑞典和美国
79.And I’m going to stage a race here between this sort of yellowish Ford here and the red Toyota down there, and the brownish Volvo.
我们将举办一场车赛 选手分别是黄色的福特车（美国） 红色的丰田车（日本） 和棕色的沃尔沃车（瑞典）
80.(Laughter) And here we go, here we go.
（笑声） 比赛开始
81.The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see, and the United States Ford is going off-road there.
丰田车启动时的表现很差 福特车驶出了赛道
82.And the Volvo is doing quite fine.
沃尔沃表现的很不错
83.This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden — can you see that?
二战时，丰田车跑到了赛道外 但它（很快调整好）并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行 但它（很快调整好）并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行
84.And they are taking over Sweden, and they are now healthier than Sweden.
现在它的健康水平 已经超过了瑞典
85.That’s the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.
就在那一年 我把自己的沃尔沃换成了丰田车
86.(Laughter) And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.
（笑声） 我们看到 日本的变化速度是惊人的
87.They really caught up.
他们确实赶超了上来
88.And this changes gradually.
但是这种变化是逐步发生的
89.We have to look over generations to understand it.
要经历好几代人的时间才能理解这种变化
90.And let me show you my own sort of family history — we made these graphs here.
下面把我的家族史展示给大家看一下 （这张图代表今天的世界）
91.And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?
Y轴代表健康水平，X轴是收入
92.And this is my family.
（这根红线）代表了我的家族
93.This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.
这里是1830年的瑞典 ，我的曾曾祖母出生于这一年
94.Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.
1830年的瑞典和今天的塞拉利昂一样
95.And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.
我的曾祖母生于1863年
96.And Sweden was like Mozambique.
1863年的瑞典和今天的莫桑比克一样
97.And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.
我的祖母生于1891年
98.She took care of me as a child, so I’m not talking about statistic now — now it’s oral history in my family.
是她看着我长大的 现在我给大家讲述的不是统计数据 而是我本人的家族历史
99.That’s when I believe statistics, when it’s grandma-verified statistics.
我之所以相信这些统计数据 是因为我的祖母证实了这些数据的真实性
100.(Laughter) I think it’s the best way of verifying historical statistics.
（笑声） 我认为祖母最适合于验证数据真实性
101.Sweden was like Ghana.
1891年的瑞典和今天的嘎纳一样
102.It’s interesting to see the enormous diversity within sub-Saharan Africa.
可见在撒哈拉以南非洲地区 国家间的差异非常巨大
103.I told you last year, I’ll tell you again, my mother was born in Egypt, and I — who am I?
（我们再来回顾一下去年的内容） 我母亲出生于（今天的）埃及
104.I’m the Mexican in the family.
我是家里的墨西哥人
105.And my daughter, she was born in Chile, and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore, now the healthiest country on this Earth.
我女儿出生于（今天的）智利 我的孙女则出生在（今天的）新加坡 新加坡是目前世界上最健康的国家
106.It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago, with better child survival.
其儿童健康水平在2，3年前 超过了瑞典
107.But they’re very small, you know.
但新加坡是个小地方
108.They’re so close to the hospital we can never beat them out in these forests.
人们住的地方和医院很近 把他们搬到瑞典的森林地区再比比看
109.(Laughter) But homage to Singapore.
（笑声） 但还是应该向新加坡致敬
110.Singapore are the best ones, now.
他们是最健康的国家之一
111.Now this looks also like a very good story.
以上这些看起来很不错
112.But it’s not really that easy, that it’s all a good story.
但这些好的现象不能代表全部
113.Because I have to show you one of the other facility.
现在我们调整一下设置
114.We can also make the color here represent the variable — and what am I choosing here?
把球的颜色重新设置一下，让颜色表示 把球的颜色重新设置一下，让颜色表示
115.Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.
CO2人均排放量（公吨）
116.This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.
1962年，美国的人均CO2排放量为16吨
117.And China was emitting 0.6, and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.
当时的中国人均排放0.6吨 印度为0.3吨
118.And what happens when we moved on?
后来呢
119.Well, you see the nice story of getting richer and getting healthier — everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.
各国的经济和健康均得到了发展 各国的经济和健康均得到了发展 同时所有国家的人均CO2排放量都增加了
120.There is no one who has done it so far.
没有哪个国家不是如此
121.And we don’t have all the updated data any longer, because this is really hot data today.
手头上我们没有更近的数据 因为CO2的数据现在很炙手可热
122.And there we are, 2001.
最新的数据只有2001年的
123.And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know, many say now, the problem is the emerging economies, they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.
上次我参加了一个世界领导人的会议 很多人在埋怨新兴国家 说他们排放了太多CO2
124.The Minister of the Environment of India said, “Well, you were the one who caused the problem.”
印度环境部的部长说 “问题出在你们那里
125.The OECD countries — the high-income countries — they were the ones who caused the climate change.
经合组织成员国，高收入国家 是你们导致了气候的改变
126.”But we forgive you, because you didn’t know it.
但我们原谅你们，因为你们以前并不知情
127.But from now on, we count per capita.
从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
128.From now on we count per capita.
从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
129.And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission.”
每个国家都应该对自己的人均CO2排放量负责”
130.This really shows you, we have not seen good economic and health progress anywhere in the world without destroying the climate.
这里我们清楚地看到，每个国家的 经济发展和健康的改善 都是以破坏环境为代价的
131.And this is really what has to be changed.
这亟需改变
132.I’ve been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world, but I don’t think it’s like this.
我给大家展示过于乐观的发展前景，已经招来不少批评 尽管我不太认同
133.The world is quite a messy place.
这是一个乱糟糟的世界
134.This we can call Dollar Street.
现在大家所看到的是“美元街”
135.Everyone lives on this street here.
所有人都住在这条街上
136.What they earn here — what number they live on — is how much they earn per day.
上面的数字 代表居民每天的收入
137.This family earns about one dollar per day.
这家人每天收入1美元
138.We drive up the street here, we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.
我们驾车往前走 这家人每天收入2-3美元
139.And we drive away here — we find the first garden in the street, and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.
继续往前走，看到街上第一个带花园的房子 他们家每天收入10-50美元
140.And how do they live?
房子里面是什么样子的呢
141.If we look at the bed here, we can see that they sleep on a rug on the floor.
先看看卧室 （最穷的一家）睡在地板上
142.This is what poverty line is — 80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs, the food for the day.
这就是贫困线以下的生活 80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物 80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物
143.This is two to five dollars, you have a bed.
这家人每天收入2-5美元，有床可以睡了
144.And here it’s a much nicer bedroom, you can see.
（带花园的这一家）卧室要好得多
145.I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see the sofa immediately here.
我给”宜家”雇员们作报告的时候 他们要求看看沙发
146.(Laughter) And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.
（笑声） 这就是（贫困家里的）沙发
147.And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama, you see the family still sitting on the floor there, although there is a sofa.
这一家有像样的沙发，但我们环顾周围 会看到他们仍然坐在地板上 尽管他们有沙发
148.If you watch in the kitchen, you can see that the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollar.
我们再看看厨房 日收入1美元和10美元的家庭，厨房条件差不多
149.It comes beyond here, when you really can get good working conditions in the family.
在日收入超过10美元的家里 厨房的条件才大为改善
150.And if you really want to see the difference, you look at the toilet over here.
真正的差别其实在厕所 大家看这里
151.This can change, this can change.
这些是可以改变的
152.These are all pictures and images from Africa, and it can become much better.
这些图片来自非洲 但是（非洲）可以变得更好
153.We can get out of poverty.
我们可以摆脱贫困
154.My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.
我以前的研究并不是现在的IT领域
155.I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers who were on the verge of famine.
我在非洲工作了20年，终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间 我在非洲工作了20年，终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间
156.And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.
这张照片记录了对“农民需求”的一项研究
157.The nice thing here is that you can’t see who are the researchers in this picture.
有趣的是，你在照片上分辨不出 谁是研究人员
158.That’s when research functions for societies — you must really live with the people.
在贫困地区开展研究的时候 你必须和当地人生活在一起
159.When you’re in poverty, everything is about survival.
如果你在贫困线以下，生存就是你的全部
160.It’s about having food.
必须获得食物
161.And these two young farmers, they are girls now — because the parents are dead from HIV and AIDS — they discuss with a trained agronomist.
照片里的2个年轻的农民，她们是女孩 因为父母都死于艾滋病 她们正和一个农学家交谈
162.This is one of the best agronomists in Malawi, Junatambe Kumbira, and he’s discussing what sort of cassava they will plant — the best converter of sunshine to food that man has found.
他是马拉维最好的农学家之一，（名字是）Jonathan Mkambira 他们正在讨论种植哪一种cassava Cassava是已知的转化太阳能效率最高的植物
163.And they are very, very eagerly interested to get advice, and that’s to survive in poverty.
农民非常渴望得到建议 这就是贫困线以下的生活
164.That’s one context.
另一方面
165.Getting out of poverty.
（如何）摆脱贫困
166.The women told us one thing. “Get us technology.
照片中的妇女告诉我们：“我们需要技术支持
167.We hate this mortar, to stand hours and hours.
我们不想用人工磨，连续几个小时站着
168.Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour, then we will be able to pay for the rest ourselves.”
给我们电动磨来磨面粉吧 我们可以用卖面粉的钱去买其它东西”
169.Technology will bring you out of poverty, but there’s a need for a market to get away from poverty.
技术支持可以帮助人们脱贫 而市场对于人们脱贫也很重要
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