1.The future of life, and where the unraveling of our biology — and bring up the lights a little bit. I don’t have any slides.
未来的生活，以及目前生物学发展方向的—— 请把灯调亮一点，我不打算使用幻灯片。
2.I’m just going to talk — about where that’s likely to carry us.
只是单纯的谈论—— 生物学的发展可能把我们引向何方。
3.And you know, I saw all the visons of the first couple of sessions.
在看过前面这些演讲 对于未来的构想之后。
4.It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk about the future.
我甚至有一点负罪感，因为你们即将听到的 是对于未来的乐观估计。
5.It felt wrong to do that in some way.
这样做感觉好像有点怪。
6.And yet , I don’t really think it is because when it comes down to it, it’s this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain —
然而，实际上我并不这样想， 因为尘埃落定之后，争论会烟消云散 只有重大的轨迹才会真正存留
7.what people in the future are going to remember about this period.
成为未来人们对这段时期的唯一记忆。
8.I want to talk to you a little bit about why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins, who would like to ban these sorts of technologies, or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,
我想对你们谈论的事情包括 为什么Jeremy Rivkins 禁止这些技术的理论 或者Bill Joys关于放弃这些技术的想法
9.are actually, to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.
实际上对我们是一场悲剧。
10.I’m focusing on biology, the biological sciences.
我正在关注的是生物学， 关于生命的科学。
11.The reason I’m doing that is because those are going to be the areas that are the most significant to us.
我这样做是因为将对我们产生重大意义的领域 正集中在生物学之中。
12.The reason for that is really very simple.
理由很简单，
13.It’s because we’re flesh and blood.
因为我们都是血肉之躯。
14.We’re biological creatures.
我们就是生命。
15.And what we can do with our biology is going to shape our future and that of our children and that of their children — whether we gain control over aging,
因此生物学的进展 将塑造我们的未来 以及我们子子孙孙的未来—— 我们能否控制衰老？
16.whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer’s, and heart disease, and cancer.
是否能保护自己不受阿尔兹海默症的侵扰？ 或者远离心血管疾病以及癌症？
17.I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.
我认为莎士比亚说得很好，
18.And I’m actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.
所以我就原封不动的引用一下。
19.(Laughter) He said, “And so from hour to hour we ripe and ripe.
（笑） 他说：“每时每刻， 我们在成长。
20.And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.
每时每刻，我们在衰老。
21.And thereby hangs a tale.”
我们的故事就在这每时每刻之间。
22.Life is short, you know.
瞧，人生是短暂的。
23.And we need to think about planning a little bit.
所以我们需要一点点规划。
24.We’re all going to eventually, even in the developed world, have to lose everything that we love.
即使在最发达的国家，我们最终也将 失去所有自己珍爱的东西。
25.When you’re beginning to rot a little bit, all of the videos crammed into your head, all of the extensions that extend your various powers,
当我们开始衰老， 各种回忆就开始将脑袋塞得满满当当， 你的权利、地位、财富等等，曾经是你生命力的延伸，
26.are going to being to seem a little secondary.
那时看来将变得无足轻重。
27.And you know, I’m getting a little bit gray, so is Ray Kurzweil, so is Eric Drexler.
你看，我变得有点儿悲观了，就像Ray Kurzweil（计算机科学家，认为人工智能终会超越人类智能）， 或者Eric Drexler（纳米技术先驱，预言失去控制的自我复制机器将耗尽地球资源，带来世界末日）。
28.This is where it’s really central to our lives.
这才是我们生命的关键。
29.Now I know there’s been a whole lot of hype about our power to control biology.
我知道，现在已经有太多的炒作 针对于我们控制生命的能力。
30.You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.
以人类基因组计划为例。
31.It wasn’t two years ago that everybody was talking about we’ve found the Holy Grail of biology.
就在不到两年前 每个人都在谈论着 我们找到了生物学的圣杯。
32.We’re deciphering the code of codes.
我们破译了生命的密码。
33.We’re reading the book of life.
我们正在阅读生命之书。
34.It’s a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon.
这是人不禁想起1969年尼尔·阿姆斯特朗在月球行走时的情形。
35.And everybody was about to race out toward the stars.
当时每个人都认为我们即将奔向浩瀚星空。
36.And we’ve all seen 2001: A Space Odyssey.
我们也都看过2001太空漫游。
37.You know it’s 2003. And there is no HAL.
然而现在已经是2003年了，HAL仍不见踪影。
38.And there no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.
我们还不能在自己的卫星上漫游，更别说去木星的卫星了。
39.And we’re still picking up pieces of the Challenger.
我们至今还在收拾挑战者号的残骸
40.So it’s not surprising that some people would wonder whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now, we’ll look back at this instant in time.
所以，我不会感到奇怪有些人会疑惑 30或40年后 我们再回首此刻
41.And all of the sort of talk about the Human Genome Project, and what all this is going to mean to us.
我们讨论的的这一切 关于人类基因组计划的争论 到底对我们意味着什么
42.Well it will really mean precious little.
它的意义是否微乎其微
43.And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.
我想说的是，这种事情不会发生。
44.Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology, and modifying and altering and adjusting these things, we’re talking about changing ourselves.
因为当我们谈论遗传学和生物学， 谈论基因修饰、改造和调整时， 我们谈论的实际是改造我们自己。
45.And this is very critical stuff.
这就非同小可了。
46.If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives, you just have to go to any major city.
关于科技对我们生活的影响，如果你有任何疑问， 就随便去个大城市看看吧。
47.This is not the stomping ground of our Pleisticine ancestors.
这已经不是我们的爪哇人祖先 所熟悉的故土了。
48.What’s happening is we’re taking this technology, it’s becoming more precise, more potent, and we’re turning it back upon ourselves.
当我们谈论这些科技， 科技本身正愈加精细和强大， 并正在对我们自己造成影响。
49.Before it’s all done we are going to alter ourselves every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.
不久之后， 我们对自身的改造， 就将像对周围世界的改造一样巨大。
50.It’s going to happen a lot sooner than people imagine.
所有这些，都会在人们所预想的 时间之前发生。
51.On the way there it’s going to completely revolutionize medicine and health care. That’s obvious.
随之而来的 是医药和卫生的革命性变化。这显而易见。
52.It’s going to change the way we have children.
这将会改变我们生孩子的方式。
53.It’s going to change the way we manage and alter our emotions.
改变我们控制 和调整自我情绪的途径。
54.It’s going to probably change the human lifespan.
很有可能还会改变人类寿命。
55.It will really make us question what it is to be a human being.
所有这些都促使我们思考， 到底什么才是人类的本质。
56.The larger context of this is that are two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.
这个问题的背景， 是现在正在发生的、史无前例的两种变革。
57.The first of them is the obvious one, the silicon revolution.
第一种，很明显， 是计算机革命。
58.Which you are are very very familiar with.
这我们都很熟悉。
59.It’s changing our lives in so many ways, and it will continue to do that.
计算机在太多方面改变了我们的生活， 并将继续给我们带来更多改变。
60.What the essence of that is is that we’re taking the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet, and we’re breathing a level of complexity into it
这种变化的本质， 是我们取出脚下的泥土，无生命的硅， 赋予它一定的复杂性。
61.that rivals that of life itself.
这种复杂性可以与生命相当，
62.And may even surpass it.
甚至可能超过生命。
63.As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution, is the revolution in biology.
上述计算机革命的结果，是作为计算机革命之子的 生物学的变革。
64.The genomics revolution, proteomics, metabolomics, all of these “omics”
基因组学革命， 蛋白质组学，代谢组学，所有这些字眼
65.that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.
在经费申请和商业计划中显得如此漂亮。
66.What we’re doing is we are seizing control of our evolutionary future.
我们正在做的， 是努力获取自身未来进化的控制权。
67.I mean we’re essentially using technology to just jam evolution into fast forward.
归根到底，是在用科技 将进化速率调快。
68.It’s not at all clear where it’s going to take us.
这种改变的结果还不清晰。
69.But in five to ten years we’re going to start see some very profound changes.
但是在5到10年之内，我们会看到 许多深刻变化。
70.The most immediate changes that we’ll see are things like in medicine.
最容易被观察到的， 是医药等的变化。
71.There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine as we start to be able to identify all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.
预防医药将会占越来越大的比例， 因为我们开始能够 确认个体的患病因素。
72.But who is going to pay for all this?
但是，谁在为此买单？
73.And how are we going to understand all this complex information?
我们如何理解这些繁杂的信息？
74.That is going to be the IT challenge of the next generation, is communicating all this information.
这将是下一代面临的巨大挑战—— 信息的交流。
75.There’s pharmacogenomics — a combination of pharmacology and genetics — tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.
这就是医药遗传学——医药学与 遗传学的结合—— 针对个体体质的医药， Juan在前面已经有所涉及。
76.That’s going to have amazing impacts.
这种变化的影响是巨大的。
77.And it’s going to be used for diet as well, and nutritional supplements and such.
个体差异化还会被应用在饮食上， 以及营养摄入等领域。
78.But it’s going to have a big impact because we’re going to have niche drugs.
这将会产生巨大影响， 因为我们将会拥有针对性药品，
79.And we aren’t going to be able to support the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.
以后，我们也不会再承担 用以制作畅销药品的种种费用。
80.The approval process is going to fall apart actually.
药品的批准过程将会瓦解。
81.It’s too slow.
因为它太慢。
82.It’s too risk-averse, and it is really not suited for the future that we’re moving into.
过于惧怕风险， 实在不适合我们的未来， 我们即将进入的未来。
83.Another thing is we’re just going to have to deal with this knowledge.
另外，对于新的生物学知识，我们要学会如何处理。
84.It’s really wonderful when we hear, “Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.
有些论断让我们倾心不已： “哇！我们共享着生命密码的99.9%。
85.We’re all identical to each other. Isn’t it wonderful?”
我们跟其他人是一样的。难道这不是太奇妙了吗？”
86.And look around you and know that what we really care about is that little bit of difference.
但是当你转过头，你就会知道 我们真正关心的 却是那一点点不同。
87.We look the same to a visitor from another planet maybe but not to each other because we compete with each other all time.
也许从外星人看来我们都是一样的， 但是我们却不这样认为， 因为我们一直在与其他人竞争。
88.And we’re going to have to come to grips with the fact that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,
我们将不得不认识到， 将来我们之间会有许多不同，无论是个人与个人之间
89.and between subpopulations of humans as well.
还是人类各亚群之间。
90.To deny that that’s the case is not a very good start on that.
否认并不是很好的开始。
91.A generation or so away there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.
再过一代左右， 更加影响深远的事情会发生。
92.That’s when we’re going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.
那时我们将会开始利用这些知识来改变我们自身。
93.Now I don’t mean extra gills or something — something we care about, like aging.
我说的可不是多一个鳃什么的—— 而是我们关心的事情，例如衰老。
94.What if we could unravel aging and understand it — begin to retard the process or even reverse it?
如果我们可以揭开衰老的秘密，理解衰老，进而阻止甚至逆转衰老的过程， 世界将会怎样？
95.It would change absolutely everything.
那时一切都会被改变。
96.And it’s obvious to anyone, that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this, whatever the consequences are.
任何人都会明白， 如果我们可以这样做，我们肯定是会这样做的， 无论结果如何。
97.The second is modifying our emotions.
第二点是修饰我们的情感。
98.I mean Ritalin, Viagra, things of that sort, Prozac.
我指的是Ritalin， Viagra这样的药， 还有Prozac。
99.You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.
你瞧，这只是开始，就像婴儿笨拙的爬行。
100.What if you could take a little concoction of pharmaceuticals that would make you feel really contented, just happy to be you.
但是假如我们可以 通过服用一点儿混合药品， 来感到真正的满足， 感到生而为人的由衷喜悦，又会如何呢？
101.Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn’t have any overt side effects?
如果没有任何副作用，你能拒绝它吗？
102.Probably not.
大概不能。
103.And if you don’t, who are you going to be?
但是既然你没有拒绝，你将会变得怎样？
104.Why do you do what you do?
为什么你会这样做？
105.We’re sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.
某种程度上，我们是在回避用于指导我们行为的进化程序。
106.It’s going to be very challenging to deal with.
面对这一点很有挑战性。
107.The third area is reproduction.
第三个领域是生育。
108.The idea that we’re going to chose our children’s genes, as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.
概括来说，既然我们可以知道各种基因的作用， 我们就可以选择自己孩子的基因。
109.That’s the focus of my book Redesigning Humans, where I talk about the kinds of choices we’ll make, and the challenges it’s going to present to society.
这就是我的《人类再设计》这本书所关注的。 书中谈论了我们将要面临的种种选择， 以及这种情况对未来社会所造成的挑战。
110.There are three obvious ways of doing this.
为实现这一点，有三条明显的道路。
111.The first is cloning.
第一是克隆。
112.It didn’t happen.
这并没有发生。
113.It’s a total media circus.
完全是媒体在杂耍
114.It will happen in five to 10 years.
克隆将在未来5到10年内发生。
115.And when it does it’s not going to be that big a deal.
到那时，并不会成为什么大事情。
116.The birth of a delayed identical twin is not going to shake western civilization.
一个延迟出生的同卵双胞胎 将不会动摇西方文明。
117.But there are more important things that are already occurring: embryo screening.
更加重要的事情正在发生： 胚胎筛选。
118.You take a six to eight cell embryo, you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell, and depending on the results of that test
一个6-8细胞胚胎， 你从中取出一个细胞，对它进行基因测试， 依照测试的结果，
119.you either implant that embryo or you discard it.
你选择植入这个胚胎或者丢弃它。
120.It’s already done to avoid rare diseases today.
今天，这种操作已经被用于避免罕见疾病。
121.And pretty soon it’s going to be possible to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.
不久之后，所有遗传疾病都有可能 通过这种途径来避免。
122.As that becomes possible this is going to move from something that is used by those who have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,
那时， 进行这种操作的人群将会从 因为有生育问题而进行人工受精的人
123.to the wealthy who want to protect their children, to just about everybody else.
发展到有钱人用它来保留自己的下一代 并最终转移至几乎所有人。
124.And in that process that’s going to morph from being just for diseases, to being for lesser vulnerabilities, like risk of manic depression, or something,
在这个过程中， 一开始对于疾病的避免， 降低易感性， 比如抑郁症等等，
125.to picking personalities, temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.
会逐渐发展成对于个性的挑选， 对性格、特征等等的挑选。
126.Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.
基因工程将不可避免。
127.Directly going in — it’s a little bit further away, but not that far away — going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.
发展的方向将是——现在说有点早，但离我们也不太远—— 改变胚胎第一个细胞的基因。
128.The way I suspect it will happen is using artificial chromosomes and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46 to 47 or 48.
我猜测 这将会通过人工染色体 或者额外染色体来实现。所以染色体的数目会从46条 变成47条或48条。
129.And one that is not heritable because who would want to pass on to their children the archaic enhancement modules that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?
这些染色体将是不遗传的， 因为谁会愿意遗传给他们的孩子 如此古老的增强模块呢？ 要知道这是25年前父母传给他们的。
130.It’s a joke, of course they wouldn’t want to do that.
只是一个玩笑。他们当然不会这样做。
131.They’ll want the new release.
他们想要的是新的染色体。
132.Those kinds of lose analogies with (Laughter) computers, and with programing, are actually much deeper than that.
这可以大略类比于 （笑） 电脑或者编程， 但实际上比这些都要深刻得多。
133.They are really going to come to operate in this realm.
人们真的会在这个领域展开行动。
134.Now not everything that can be done should be done.
现在要说的是，并非所有可以做的事情都是应该做的，
135.And it won’t be done.
有些事情不会成为现实。
136.But when something is feasible in thousands of laboratories all over the world, which is going to be the case with these technologies,
但是当很多东西在世界上几千个实验室内 都已经可以被实现时， 这些技术会被怎样应用呢？
137.when there are large numbers of people who see them as beneficial, which is already the case, and when they’re almost impossible to police,
尤其是像现在的情况一样， 许多人把这些技术视为有益的尝试， 对他们进行监管又近乎不可能，
138.it’s not a question of if this is going to happen, it’s when and where and how it’s going to happen.
某些事情的发生与否就不再是一个疑问， 问题是它们发生的地点和方式。
139.Humanity is going to go down this path.
人类会沿着这条道路走下去。
140.And it’s going to do so for two reasons.
原因有两条：
141.The first is that all these technologies are just a spin off of mainstream medical research that everybody wants to see happen.
首先是所有这些技术 都是主流医学研究的衍生物， 人人都渴望看到它们出现。
142.It is being funded very very — in a big way.
对它们的经费支持非常非常 极为丰厚。
143.The second is, we’re human.
其次，我们是人类。
144.That’s what we do.
这样做是我们的本性。
145.We try to use our technology to improve our lives in one way or another.
我们试图通过我们的技术 从方方面面来改进我们的生活。
146.To imagine that we’re not going to use these technologies when they become available, is as much a denial of who we are as to imagine
臆想想我们在可以应用这些技术时 却主动放弃， 是对人性的否认， 至于想象到
147.that we’ll use these technologies and not fret and worry about it a great deal.
我们能在应用这些技术时不担心 不忧心忡忡
148.The lines are going to blur. And they already are between therapy and enhancement, between treatment and prevention, between need and desire.
分界线将变模糊。如今， 疗养与增强之间的界限， 治疗与预防之间的界限， 需求与渴望之间的界限，都日益模糊不清。
149.That’s really the central one, I believe.
我相信这才是事情的关键。
150.People can try to ban these things.
人们可以试图禁止它们。
151.They undoubtedly will. They have.
毫无疑问他们会这样干。有些人已经这样做了。
152.But ultimately all this is going to do is just shift development elsewhere.
但最终这些行为的结果， 只是将发展导向别处。
153.It’s going to drive these things from view.
这些事情将躲到视线之外。
154.It’s going to reserve the technology for the wealthy because they are in the best position to circumvent any of these sorts of laws.
科技将会为富人保留， 因为他们处于最好的位置 来逃脱任何法律的管辖。
155.And it’s going to deny us the information that we need, to make wise decisions about how to use these technologies.
对技术的禁止也会使我们失去 获得必要知识的机会， 同时失去正确决策技术利用方式的机会。
156.So, sure, we need to debate these things.
所以，我们对这些事情的讨论无疑是必要的。
157.And I think it’s wonderful that we do.
我为我们正在进行的讨论感到高兴。
158.But we shouldn’t kid ourselves and think that we’re going to reach a consensus about these things.
然而我们不能掩耳盗铃， 认为一致的结论将会出现。
159.That is simply not going to happen.
因为那是不可能的。
160.They touch us too deeply.
这种争论对我们自身的触动太大。
161.And they depend too much upon history, upon philosophy, upon religion, upon culture, upon politics.
并且，高度依赖于历史、哲学 宗教、文化和政治。
162.Some people are going to see this as an abomination, as the worst thing, as just awful.
在有些人看来， 这是令人深恶痛绝的， 是最邪恶的东西，骇人听闻。
163.Other people are going to say, “This is great.
但有的人会说：“这太棒了！
164.This is the flowering of human endeavor.”
简直是人类成就中的奇葩。”
165.The one thing though that is really dangerous about these sorts of technologies, is that it’s easy to become seduced by them.
关于这些技术， 唯一真正可怕之处， 是它们对我们的诱惑是如此之大。
166.And to focus too much on all the high technology possibilities that exist.
我们会轻易将注意力 集中在所有可能的高科技发展上。
167.And to lose touch with the basic rhythms of our biology and our health.
并因此失去 对于基本生命和健康基本规律的感受。
168.There are too many people that think that high technology medicine is going to keep them, save them, from overeating, from eating a lot of fast foods,
太多人认为高科技药物 会为他们带来福音，会拯救他们 于暴饮暴食之中。 以为大量食用速食不再有害健康，
169.from not getting any exercise.
或者完全不锻炼也没有关系。
170.It’s not going to happen.
这是不可能的。
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