1.If you think about the phone — and Intel has tested a lot of the things I’m going to show you, over the last 10 years, in about 600 elderly households —
如果你想想电话- 正如英特尔（intel）已经测试过的 我将向你展示 最近10年间的很多东西 在大约600个老年家庭中-
2.300 in Ireland, and 300 in Portland — trying to understand: How do we measure and monitor behavior in a medically meaningful way?
其中300个在爱尔兰，300个在波兰 正在尝试理解我们如何用一种 和观察行为 并以一种医学上有意义的方式？
3.And if you think about the phone, right, it’s something that we can use for some incredible ways to help people actually take the right medication at the right time.
如果你考虑一下电话，好 我们可以用一些不可思议的方式使用它 （比如）帮助人们在正确的时间服用正确的药物
4.We’re testing these kinds of simple sensor-network technologies in the home so that any phone that a senior is already comfortable with
我们正在测试这些简单的 在家里使用的传感网络技术 任何与传感器适应良好的电话
5.can help them deal with their medications.
都可以帮助他们处理药物
6.And a lot of what they do is they pick up the phone, and it’s our system whispering to them which pill they need to take, and they fake like they’re having a conversation with a friend.
很多情况下他们做的就是拿起电话 然后我们的系统就会轻声对他们说，他们该吃那些药了 让他们觉得就像在跟朋友聊天
7.And they’re not embarrassed by a meds caddy that’s ugly, that sits on their kitchen table and says, “I’m old. I’m frail.”
而不用对着一个厨房的桌子上的丑陋的药箱子 为难地说： “我老了，我很脆弱。”
8.It’s surreptitious technology that’s helping them do a simple task of taking the right pill at the right time.
这项技术具有保密性 帮助他们完成一项简单的任务 即按时服药
9.Now, we also do some pretty amazing things with these phones.
目前，我们还在电话上做了一些非常惊人事情
10.Because that moment when you answer the phone is a cognitive test every time that you do it.
因为当你在接电话的时候 每次做的都是一个认知的测试
11.Think about it, all right? I’m going to answer the phone three different times.
想一下，好吗？我正在要接这三个不同的电话
12.”Hello? Hey.”
“喂？是你啊。”
13.All right? That’s the first time.
行吧？这是第一次
14.”Hello? Uh, hey.”
“喂？噢，是你啊”
15.”Hello? Uh, who?
“喂？哦，谁？”
16.Oh, hey.”
“哦，是你啊”
17.All right? Very big differences between the way I answered the phone the three times.
对吧？非常大的差别 在我三次接电话中
18.And as we monitor phone usage by seniors over a long period of time, down to the tenths of a microsecond, that recognition moment of whether they can figure out that person on the other end
由于我们观测电话的使用 通过传感器，已经有很长时间了 （甚至观测细致到）数十微秒的程度 还有认出的时刻 他们是否能认出电话那头的对方是谁
19.is a friend and we start talking to them immediately, or they do a lot of what’s called trouble talk, where they’re like, “Wait, who is this? Oh.” Right?
是朋友的话，他们就立刻开始跟他们聊天 或者（没认出来），他们就会做很多被称作麻烦对话的问话 都像这个样子，“等等，是谁呀？哦。”
20.Waiting for that recognition moment may be the best early indicator of the onset of dementia than anything that shows up clinically today.
今天临床显示， 等待认知时刻或许是最好的老年痴呆症发病早期显示器， 比什么都好。
21.We call these behavioral markers.
我们称这些是行为的记录者。
22.There’s lots of others. Is the person going to the phone as quickly, when it rings, as they used to?
还有很多其它的方式。这个人是否跟原先一样， 电话一响就接了呢？
23.Is it a hearing problem or is it a physicality problem?
是听觉上的问题还是行动不便？
24.Has their voice gotten more quiet? We’re doing a lot of work with people with Alzheimer’s and particularly with Parkinson’s, where that quiet voice that sometimes shows up with Parkinson’s patients
还是声音变的轻了呢？我们研究了很多 患有阿尔茨海默氏症，特别是帕金森症的病人， 轻声可能是最好的
25.may be the best early indicator of Parkinson’s five to 10 years before it shows up clinically.
发现前期帕金森症的征兆， 比临床显现的要早5年到10年。
26.But those subtle changes in your voice over a long period of time are hard for you or your spouse to notice until it becomes so extreme
但是你声音的那些长时间的微妙改变 对于你和你的配偶来说是很难发现的，直到它恶化，
27.and your voice has become so quiet.
你的声音变得完全轻微的时候。
28.So, sensors are looking at that kind of voice.
所以说，传感器就监视这种声音。
29.When you pick up the phone, how much tremor are you having, and what is that like, and what is that trend like over a period of time?
当你接电话的时候， 你的声带震动了多少， 那是怎么样的，你以前又是什么状况的？
30.Are you having more trouble dialing the phone than you used to?
你打电话时是否感到比以前费劲儿？
31.Is it a dexterity problem? Is it the onset of arthritis?
是灵活性的问题？还是关节炎的问题？
32.Are you using the phone? Are you socializing less than you used to?
你在打电话么？你是否比以前联系朋友的次数少了？
33.And looking at that pattern. And what does that decline in social health mean, as a kind of a vital sign of the future?
看那个模型。社交健康降低意味着什么呢， 是否算是一种来自未来的至关重要的信号呢？
34.And then wow, what a radical idea, we — except in the United States — might be able to use this newfangled technology to actually interact with a nurse or a doctor on the other end of the line.
哇，这是什么先进的想法， 我们，除了在美国， 可能能够使用这种新奇的科技 来与另一端的护士或医生们交流。
35.Wow, what a great day that will be once we’re allowed to actually do those kinds of things.
当我们真的能这么做的时候， 该是多么美好的一天呀。
36.So, these are what I would call behavioral markers.
这就是我们所说的行为记录者。
37.And it’s the whole field that we’ve been trying to work on for the last 10 years at Intel.
这是我们过去十年 在Intel公司所努力的。
38.How do you put simple disruptive technologies, and the first of five phrases that I’m going to talk about in this talk?
你如何将简单的全新技术用一句话讲出来， 我这次总共才打算说五句话？
39.Behavioral markers matter.
行为记录者很重要。
40.How do we change behavior?
我们怎样才能改变行为呢？
41.How do we measure changes in behavior in a meaningful way that’s going to help us with prevention of disease, early onset of disease,
当它能帮助我们预防疾病， 早期疾病的爆发，记录疾病的长期进展， 我们怎样量化这样的行为
42.and tracking the progression of disease over a long period of time?
所带来的重大意义上的改变呢？
43.Now, why would Intel let me spend a lot of time and money, over the last 10 years, trying to understand the needs of seniors and start thinking about these kinds of behavioral markers?
现在，为什么Intel公司 让我花费无数的实践和金钱，数十年来， 试图了解老人的需要， 并试图了解这些行为记录者呢？
44.This is some of the field work that we’ve done.
这是我们已经了解的一些领域。
45.We have now lived with 1,000 elderly households in 20 countries over the last 10 years.
过去十年中，我们同20个国家的 1000多户老人生活在一起。
46.We study people in Rochester, New York.
我们研究纽约州罗切斯特市的人们。
47.We go live with them in the winter because what they do in the winter, and their access to healthcare, and how much they socialize,
我们一冬天都跟他们生活在一起， 因为他们在冬天的所作所为， 他们的医保，他们的社交
48.is very different than in the summer.
都跟他们在夏天的完全不一样。
49.If they have a hip fracture we go with them and we study their entire discharge experience.
如果他们髋部骨折了，我们会跟随着他们， 研究他们的整个过程。
50.If they have a family member who is a key part of their care network, we fly and study them as well.
如果他们有家庭成员是他们医保网络的重要部分， 我们就飞过去，研究他们。
51.So, we study the holistic health experience of 1,000 seniors over the last 10 years in 20 different countries.
所以说，在过去的10年中， 20多个不同的国家， 我们进行了1000多个传感器的整体健康试验。
52.Why is Intel willing to fund that?
为什么Intel公司愿意资助我们呢？
53.It’s because of the second slogan that I want to talk about.
原因也正是我要讲到的第二个口号。
54.Ten years ago, when I started trying to convince Intel to let me go start looking at disruptive technologies that could help with independent living,
10年前，当我刚刚开始向Intel公司游说 让我实施这个 能够帮助单独个体家庭的新奇的技术时，
55.this is what I called it: “Y2K + 10.”
我使用了“Y2K+10”这个口号。
56.You know, back in 2000, we were all so obsessed with paying attention to the aging of our computers, and whether or not they were going to survive
你知道，在2000年的时候， 我们都着迷于 计算机的千年虫问题， 看他们是否能够
57.the tick of the clock from 1999 to 2000, that we missed a moment that only demographers were paying attention to.
随着时钟从1999到2000的滴答声中幸存下来， 但我们却错过了人口学家所关注的时刻。
58.It was right around New Years.
那就在新年夜前后。
59.And that switchover, when we had the larger number of older people on the planet, for the first time than younger people.
那是个大转变， 这个星球上第一次 老年人比年轻人多。
60.For the first time in human history — and barring aliens landing or some major other pandemic, that’s the expectation from demographers, going forward.
也是人类历史上的第一次，禁止外国人登陆 或者其他一些主要瘟疫， 那就是人口统计学的期望，又向前了一步。
61.And 10 years ago it seemed like I had a lot of time to convince Intel to work on this. Right?
10年前，看起来好像我有很多时间 劝说Intel公司研究这个。对吧？
62.Y2K + 10 was coming, the baby boomers starting to retire.
Y2K+10正来临， 婴儿潮也正开始退却。
63.Well folks, it’s like we know these demographics here.
大伙看看，这就好像我们知道这些人口统计学似的。
64.This is a map of the entire world.
这是张世界地图。
65.It’s like the lights are on, but nobody’s home on this demographic Y2K + 10 problem. Right?
这就像灯是亮着的， 却没有人思考着人口统计学的 Y2K+10问题。对吧？
66.I mean we sort of get it here, but we don’t get it here, and we’re not doing anything about it.
我的意思是，我们好像是了解了，但是我们却没有真正了解。 我们没解决任何问题。
67.The health reform bill is largely ignoring the realities of the age wave that’s coming, and the implications for what we need to do to change
医保改革大体上忽视了 正来临的老龄化 和我们需要做些什么来改变
68.not only how we pay for care, but deliver care in some radically different ways.
不仅仅是我们如何支付医疗保健， 更是用一些完全不同的方式来实施医疗保健的影响。
69.And in fact, it’s upon us.
实际上，这取决于我们。
70.I mean you probably saw these headlines. This is Catherine Casey who is the first boomer to actually get Social Security.
我的意思是，你可能读到过这些头条新闻。这是凯瑟琳凯西， 她是第一位实际上得到社会保障的婴儿潮出生的孩子。
71.That actually occurred this year. She took early retirement.
其实是今年发生的事。她选择提前退休。
72.She was born one second after midnight in 1946.
她在1946年的午夜1秒钟后出生的。
73.A retired school teacher, there she is with a Social Security administrator.
她是一位退休的学校老师。 这是她同她的社保人员在一起，
74.The first boomer actually, we didn’t even wait till 2011, next year.
第一位婴儿潮出生的人，我们还没等到2011年，也就是明年。
75.We’re already starting to see early retirement occur this year.
我们已经看到了今年提前退休的人们。
76.All right, so it’s here. This Y2K + 10 problem is at our door.
好，现在。这个Y2K+10问题就在我们家门口。
77.This is 50 tsunamis scheduled on the calendar, but somehow we can’t sort of marshal our government and innovative forces to sort of get out in front of it
日历上记录着50个海啸。 但是不知何故，我们没能够鼓舞我们的政府， 没能够激发出力量
78.and do something about it. We’ll wait until it’s more of a catastrophe, and react, as opposed to prepare for it.
来做点什么。我们只是等待着， 直到发生更多的灾难后才有反应， 而不是提前准备好。
79.So, one of the reasons it’s so challenging to prepare for this Y2K problem is, I want to argue, we have what I would call mainframe poisoning.
所以说，备战Y2K问题很富有挑战性的 众多原因之一是， 我想争辩一下，我们有我称之为 主体中毒的东西。
80.Andy Grove, about six or seven years ago, he doesn’t even know or remember this, in a Fortune Magazine article he used the phrase “mainframe healthcare,”
安迪 格鲁夫，大约在六到七年前， 他甚至都不知道或不记得这个了，在一期财富杂志的文章中 他用到了“主体医保”的词语，
81.and I’ve been extending and expanding this.
我就一直在扩展这个词语。
82.He saw it written down somewhere. He’s like, “Eric that’s a really cool concept.”
他看到这个词语出现在一些地方。 他说了类似这样的话“埃里克，那个点子真棒。”
83.I was like, “Actually it was your idea. You said it in a Fortune Magazine article.
我就说了类似这样的话“实际上那是你的点子。是你在一期财富杂志的文章中说过的。
84.I just extended it.”
而我只是将它扩展了。”
85.You know, this is the mainframe.
你知道，这也是个主体。
86.This mentality of traveling to and timesharing large, expensive healthcare systems actually began in 1787.
旅游和 分期巨额的医保系统的想法 实际开始于1787年。
87.This is the first general hospital in Vienna.
第一个普通医院建立在维也纳。
88.And actually the second general hospital in Vienna, in about 1850, was where we started to build out an entire curriculum for teaching med students specialties.
实际上维也纳的第二个普通议员 是在大约1850年，也是在我们准备扩建 医药学生的整个课程的地方。
89.And it’s a place in which we started developing architecture that literally divided the body, and divided care into departments and compartments.
我们开始发展 人体构造建筑学的地方， 将保健分散到不同的部门和机构中。
90.And it was reflected in our architecture, it was reflected in the way that we taught students, and this mainframe mentality persists today.
我们的建筑学也受其影响。 我们教学生的方式也受其影响。 这个主体在精神上持续到今天。
91.Now, I’m not anti-hospital.
我并不是反对医院。
92.With my own healthcare problems, I’ve taken drug therapies, I’ve traveled to this hospital and others, many, many times.
我使用药物疗法的医保问题是， 我的从一个医院到另一个医院，许多许多次。
93.But we worship the high hospital on a hill. Right?
但是我们把医院放在一个很高的位置上。对吧？
94.And this is mainframe healthcare.
这个就是主体的医保。
95.And just as 30 years ago we couldn’t conceive that we would have the power of a mainframe computer that took up a room this size in our purses and on our belts,
就在30年前， 我们还不能够想象到我们能够有一台 具有主体计算机的能力，却只有 我们的钱包和皮带大小，
96.that we’re carrying around in our cell phone today, and suddenly, computing, that used to be an expert driven system, it was a personal system that we all owned as part of our daily lives —
我们今天可以随时随地用手机带着它。 突然间，计算机化， 原先只是个专家驱动系统， 是一个个人系统，我们把它作为我们日常生活的一部分。
97.that shift from mainframe to personal computing is what we have to do for healthcare.
那个从主体到个人化的转变 是我们需要在医保改革中做的。
98.We have to shift from this mainframe mentality of healthcare to a personal model of healthcare.
我们需要从这个主体医保的想法转变到 以个人为模型的医保。
99.We are obsessed with this way of thinking.
我们对这个想法着迷。
100.When Intel does surveys all around the world and we say, “Quick response: healthcare.”
当Intel公司对全世界做调研时，我们说， “快速回复，医保。”
101.The first word that comes up is “doctor.”
出现的第一个词就是医生。
102.The second that comes up is “hospital.” And the third is “illness” or “sickness.” Right?
出现的第二个词就是医院。第三个是疾病。对吧？
103.We are wired, in our imagination, to think about healthcare and healthcare innovation as something that goes into that place.
我们被束缚着，在我们的想象中，生了病联想到到医保 和医保创新,就好像是件 理所应当的事。
104.Our entire health reform discussion right now, health I.T., when we talk with policy makers, equals “How are we going to get doctors using
我们现在的整个医疗改革争论， 健康I.T.，当我们同制度的制定者谈话时 等于我们如何要医生使用
105.electronic medical records in the mainframe?”
主体电子医药记录？
106.We’re not thinking about how do we shift from the mainframe to the home.
我们没有想过 如果将主体转变到家庭。
107.And the problem with this is the way we conceive healthcare. Right?
这个的问题是 我们想到医保的方式。对吧？
108.This is a very reactive, crisis-driven system.
这是个多反应，危机驱动的系统。
109.We’re doing 15-minute exams with patients.
我们对患者做了15分钟的试验。
110.It’s population-based.
基于人口。
111.We collect a bunch of biological information in this artificial setting, and we fix them up, like Humpty-Dumpty all over again, and send them home,
我们集合了一些生物学的信息。 将它们整合，就像玩Humpty-Dumpty一样， 然后送他们回家，
112.and hope — we might hand them a brochure, maybe an interactive website — that they do as asked and don’t come back into the mainframe.
再希望，我们给他们一本小册子，或许还有一个交互式的网站， 通过网站，他们按照所要求的行动，不再回到主体中来。
113.And the problem is we can’t afford it today, folks.
问题是，大伙们，我们今天还无法担负这个系统。
114.We can’t afford mainframe healthcare today to include the uninsured.
我们担负不起要求现在的主体医保包括那些没有保险的。
115.And now we want to do a double-double of the age wave coming through?
现在我们希望能有双重保险 在老龄化来的时候？
116.Business as usual in healthcare is broken and we’ve got to do something different.
做医保生意同以往一样不景气，我们需要做些不同的事情。
117.We’ve got to focus on the home.
我们需要关注家庭。
118.We’ve got to focus on a personal healthcare paradigm that moves care to the home. How do we be more proactive, prevention-driven?
我们需要关注个人医保例子 那些将保健带到家的例子。我们如何变得更积极主动， 更加保护驱动呢？
119.How do we collect vital signs and other kinds of information 24 by 7?
我们如何24小时一周7天的不间断地收集重要信号和其他的信息呢？
120.How do we get a personal baseline about what’s going to work for you?
我们如何知晓如何为你工作的个人底线呢？
121.How do we collect not just biological data but behavioral data, psychological data, relational data, in and on and around the home?
我们如何收集不仅仅是生物学数据 还有行为数据，心理学数据， 人际关系数据，跟整个家庭相关的方方面面的数据呢？
122.And how do we drive compliance to be a customized care plan that uses all this great technology that’s around us to change our behavior?
我们如何驱动个人化的保健方案 来改变我们的行为， 这个保健方案使用了我们周围的伟大科技？
123.That’s what we need to do for our personal health model.
这就是我们自身的医保模式所需要的。
124.I want to give you a couple of examples. This is Mimi from one of our studies — in her 90s, had to move out of her home because her family was worried about falls.
我来给你们一些例子。这是咪咪- 我们研究对象之一- 她90岁的时候，离开了家 因为她的家人担心她会摔倒。
125.Raise your hand if you had a serious fall in your household, or any of your loved ones, your parents or so forth. Right?
如果在你家，有过严重的摔倒， 不论是你，还是你的爱人， 你的父母还是其他人，请举起你的手。对吧？
126.Classic. Hip fracture often leads to institutionalization of a senior.
太经典了。髋部骨折通常导致老年人的日常生活。
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
