1.We’ve been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising.
主办方要求我们大胆陈述,做到语不惊人死不休。
2.So I’ll try and do that. But I want to start with two things that everyone already knows.
因此我会努力达到这一点。但是 我想先从大家都知道的两件事说起。
3.And the first one, in fact, is something that has been known for most of recorded history.
第一件事,事实上这是 从有记录的历史以来就众所周知的事。
4.And that is that the planet Earth, or the solar system, or our environment or whatever, is uniquely suited to sustain our evolution — or creation, as it used to be thought —
这就是地球,或者太阳系, 或者说我们的环境,或诸如此类, 独一无二地适合维持我们的进化,或者说创造,正如我们之前所理解的一样–
5.and our present existence, and most important, our future survival.
适合我们当下的生存,最重要的是我们未来的生存。
6.Nowadays this idea has a dramatic name: Spaceship Earth.
今天这个概念有一个戏剧化的名字:太空船地球。
7.And the idea there is that outside the spaceship, the universe is implacably hostile, and inside is all we have, all we depend on.
在这个概念里,太空船之外 宇宙不可调和地充满敌意, 而其内部是我们所赖以生存的一切。
8.And we only get the one chance: if we mess up our spaceship, we’ve got nowhere else to go.
我们只有一次机会:如果我们将我们的太空船折腾坏了, 我们将无处可去。
9.Now, the second thing that everyone already knows is that contrary to what was believed for most of human history, human beings are not, in fact, the hub of existence.
第二件大家都知道的事是 与我们在人类历史中大部分时间所坚信的相反 人类事实上并不是存在的中心。
10.As Stephen Hawking famously said, we’re just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet that’s in orbit around a typical star,
大家都知道Stephen Hawking说过 我们只是存在于一个典型星球表面的一些化学污垢 这个典型星球环绕着一个典型恒星绕行太空,
11.which is on the outskirts of a typical galaxy, and so on.
而这个典型恒星位于一个典型银河系的边缘,以此类推。
12.Now the first of those two things that everyone knows is kind of saying that we’re at a very un-typical place, uniquely suited and so on, and
大家都知道的两件事当中的第一件 大概是说我们存在于一个非常不典型的地方, 独一无二的适合性等,
13.the second one is saying that we’re at a typical place.
而第二件事却说我们存在于一个典型的地方。
14.And especially if you regard these two as deep truths to live by and to inform your life decisions, then they seem a little bit to conflict with each other.
尤其是当你将这两件事当作生命中深刻的真理 并以此作为你人生决策的依据, 那么他们似乎彼此有些冲突。
15.But that doesn’t prevent them from both being completely false. (Laughter) And they are. So let me start with the second one: Typical. Well — is this a typical place? Well, let’s look around, you know,
但是这也没法改变他们都是彻底错误的这一事实。(观众笑声) 他们就是错误的。让我从第二件事说起: 典型。让我们看一下–这是一个典型的地方吗?让我们看一下四周,如你所见,
16.and look in a random direction, and we see a wall, and chemical scum — (Laughter) — and that’s not typical of the universe at all.
随便超哪个方向望去,我们会看到一堵墙,还有一些化学污垢 — (观众笑声) — 而这在宇宙中一点也不典型。
17.All you’ve got to do is go a few hundred miles in that same direction and look back, and you won’t see any walls or chemical scum at all —
你所要做得是,朝着同一个方向前行数百英里然后往回看, 你将根本不会看到任何墙或者化学污垢 —
18.all you see is a blue planet. And if you go further than that, you’ll see the sun, the solar system, and the stars and so on.
你所能看到是一个蓝色星球。如果你继续前行, 你会看到太阳,太阳系,以及恒星等等。
19.But that’s still not typical of the universe, because stars come in galaxies.
然而这在宇宙中仍然不算典型,因为恒星存在于星系中。
20.And most places in the universe, a typical place in the universe, is nowhere near any galaxies.
宇宙中的大部分地方,或者说宇宙中一个典型的地方, 不是任何靠近星系的地方。
21.So let’s go further, till we’re outside the galaxy, and look back, and yeah, there’s the huge galaxy with spiral arms laid out in front of us.
因此我们继续前行,直到我们走出星系,然后再往回看, 是的,你会看到巨大的星系,它螺旋形的触手展现在我们面前。
22.And at this point we’ve come 100,000 light years from here.
而到达此地,我们已经跨越了十万光年。
23.But we’re still nowhere near a typical place in the universe.
但是我们仍然一点也没有靠近宇宙中的典型地方。
24.To get to a typical place, you’ve got to go 1,000 times as far as that into intergalactic space.
要到达典型地方, 你需要跨越此距离的1000倍,直到你到达星系与星系中间的地方。
25.And so what does that look like? Typical.
那里看上去是什么样子呢?典型的。
26.What does a typical place in the universe look like?
那么宇宙中一个典型的地方看上去是怎样的呢?
27.Well, at enormous expense, TED has arranged a high-resolution immersion virtual reality rendering of intergalactic space — the view from intergalactic space.
在这里,TED不惜代价,给大家安排了一次高清晰的 模拟的星系间空间的真实体验 — 星系间空间的景观。
28.So can we have the lights off, please, so we can see it?
请将电灯关闭,我们就可以看到了。
29.Well, not quite, not quite perfect — you see, in intergalactic space — intergalactic space is completely dark, pitch dark.
不太准确,不是非常完美 — 看到了吗?星系间的空间 –星系间的空间是彻底黑暗的,极端地黑暗。?
30.It’s so dark that if you were to be looking at the nearest star to you, and that star were to explode as a supernova, and you were to be staring directly at it at the moment when its light reached you,
这个空间是如此的黑暗,假使你正盯着离你最近的恒星, 这颗恒星正好发生超新星爆炸, 当光线射到你的时候,假使你正直勾勾地盯着它看,
31.you still wouldn’t be able to see even a glimmer.
你甚至连微弱的闪光都无法看到。
32.That’s how big and how dark the universe is.
宇宙就是如此的巨大和如此的黑暗。
33.And that’s despite the fact that a supernova is so bright, so brilliant an event, that it would kill you stone dead at a range of several light years.
这还没有考虑超新星爆炸的光线是如此强烈和明亮, 你在距离它数光年的地方会立马毙命。
34.And yet from intergalactic space, it’s so far away you wouldn’t even see it.
但是在星系间的空间,它是如此的遥远,你甚至无法看见。
35.It’s also very cold out there — less than three degrees above absolute zero.
那里也非常寒冷 — 不超过绝对零度三度。
36.And it’s very empty. The vacuum there is one million times less dense than the highest vacuum that our best technology on Earth can currently
什么都没有。那里真空的浓度比 目前地球上最好的技术可以产生的真空浓度的100万分之一还要小。
37.create. So that’s how different a typical place is from this place.
所以这就是宇宙里一个典型的地方与这儿如何地不同。
38.And that is how un-typical this place is.
也就是说我们现在所处的这个地方是如此地不典型。
39.So can we have the lights back on please? Thank you.
请开灯,谢谢。
40.Now how do we know about an environment that’s so far away, and so different, and so alien, from anything we’re used to?
那么我们如何了解距离我们如此遥远的一个环境呢? 与我们所熟悉的一切相比,它是如此不同,如此陌生。
41.Well, the Earth — our environment, in the form of us — is creating knowledge.
地球 — 我们的环境,以我们这一形式存在 — 创造知识。
42.Well, what does that mean? Well, look out even further than we’ve just been — I mean from here, with a telescope — and you’ll see things that look like stars.
这又意味着什么呢?向我们刚去过的地方的更远处望去– 我的意思是从这里开始,利用望远镜 — 你会看到类似恒星的东西。
43.They’re called quasars. Quasars originally meant quasi-stellar object.
他们叫做类星体。类星体原意是指类似恒星的物体。
44.Which means things that look a bit like stars. (Laughter) But they’re not stars.
也就是说是指看上去有点像恒星的物体。(观众笑声)但是他们不是恒星。
45.And we know what they are. Billions of years ago, and billions of light years away, the material at the center of a galaxy collapsed towards a
我们已经知道他们是什么了。数十亿年前,数十亿光年之外, 一个星系中心的物质朝着
46.super-massive black hole.
一个超级巨大的黑洞塌陷。
47.And then intense magnetic fields directed some of the energy of that gravitational collapse. And some of the matter, back out in the form of tremendous jets which illuminated lobes with the brilliance of
随后密集的磁场对重力塌陷中的一些能量产生了导向作用。 其中一些物质, 以巨大的喷射流的形式逃离,照亮了宏伟的太空,
48.– I think it’s a trillion suns.
— 我认为相当于一千亿个太阳的光亮。
49.Now, the physics of the human brain could hardly be more unlike the physics of such a jet.
然而,与这样一个喷射流的物理相比,我们人类大脑的物理大相径庭到极点。
50.We couldn’t survive for an instant in it. Language breaks down when trying to describe what it would be like in one of those jets.
在这样的环境里,我们连一瞬间都无法生存。 当我们试着描述那样的喷射流中的状况,语言变得无法表达。
51.It would be a bit like experiencing a supernova explosion, but at point-blank range and for millions of years at a time. (Laughter)
这可能有点像经历一次超新星爆炸, 但是是在零距离接触并且将数百万年的能量集中到同一时间爆发。(观众笑声)
52.And yet, that jet happened in precisely such a way that billions of years later, on the other side of the universe, some bit of chemical scum could accurately describe,
但是,这个喷射流发生得如此地精确,以至于数十亿年后 在宇宙的另一端,一些化学污垢可以准确地描述,
53.and model, and predict, and explain, above all — there’s your reference — what was happening there, in reality.
建立模型,并预测和解释,最重要的是 — 你可以找得到参考 — 现实中曾经发生过的事。
54.The one physical system, the brain, contains an accurate working model of the other — the quasar.
一个物理系统,大脑, 包含了另外一个物理系统的准确工作模型 — 类星体。
55.Not just a superficial image of it, though it contains that as well, but an explanatory model, embodying the same mathematical relationships and the same causal structure.
不仅仅是一个粗浅的图像,虽然也包含图像, 而且还包含解释性的模型,表达同样的数学 关系和一样的因果结构。
56.Now that is knowledge. And if that weren’t amazing enough, the faithfulness with which the one structure resembles the other is increasing with time. That is the growth of knowledge.
这就是知识。如果这还不够让你惊讶的话, 一个结构表达另外一个的准确性 正随着时间不断提高。这就是知识的增长。
57.So, the laws of physics have this special property.
因此,物理规律拥有这样一个特殊的性质。
58.That physical objects, as unlike each other as they could possibly be, can nevertheless embody the same mathematical and causal structure
物体,不管他们彼此多么相异, 却仍然能够表现同样的数学和因果结构,
59.and to do it more and more so over time.
而且随着时间增长表现得越来越多。
60.So we are a chemical scum that is different. This chemical scum has universality.
因此我们是与众不同的化学污垢。这一化学污垢拥有普适性。
61.Its structure contains, with ever-increasing precision, the structure of everything. This place, and not other places in the universe,
它的结构准确度越来越高地包容着, 世界万物的结构。这个地方,不是宇宙中任何其他地方,
62.is a hub which contains within itself the structural and causal essence of the whole of the rest of physical reality. And so, far from being insignificant,
在它自身内部,成为一个包容了其他一切宇宙万物结构性和因果性精髓的中心。 因此,意义深远的是,
63.the fact that the laws of physics allow this, or even mandate that this can happen, is one of the most important things about the physical world.
物理规律允许这一现象,抑或甚至主导了它的发生这一事实 是关于物理世界的最重要的事情之一。
64.Now how does the solar system — and our environment, in the form of us — acquire this special relationship with the rest of the universe?
那么太阳系– 我们的环境,以我们的形式– 是如何获取这样一个与宇宙其他部分的特殊关系的呢?
65.Well, one thing that’s true about Stephen Hawking’s remark — I mean, it is true, but it’s the wrong emphasis. One thing that’s true about it is that
Stephen Hawking观点中其中一个正确面–我的意思是,这是正确的, 但是着重点是错的。其中一个正确面是
66.it doesn’t do it with any special physics. There’s no special dispensation, no miracles involved. It does it simply with three things that we have here in abundance.
它并没有倚赖任何特殊的物理学。没有特殊的放宽, 没有奇迹发生。它的发生只依赖于我们现在富有的三种东西。
67.One of them is matter, because the growth of knowledge is a form of information processing. Information processing is computation, computation requires a computer —
其中一个是物质,因为知识的增长是一种信息处理的形式。 信息处理需要计算, 计算需要电脑–
68.there’s no known way of making a computer without matter.
现有的知识下不可能不需要物质来制造电脑。
69.We also need energy to make the computer, and most important, to make the media in effect onto which we record the knowledge that we discover.
我们还需要能量来制造电脑,最重要的是, 要使得用来记录我们所发现知识的媒介工作。
70.And then thirdly, less tangible, but just as essential for the open-ended creation of knowledge, of explanations, is evidence.
第三种东西,较难感触得到,但是在开放式的知识和解释的开发中 同样关键的是证据。
71.Now, our environment is inundated with evidence.
我们的环境中充满了证据。
72.We happen to get round to testing — let’s say, Newton’s Law of Gravity — about 300 years ago.
但是我们常常忽略了测试–比如,牛顿的地球引力定律 –大约是在300年前提出的。
73.But the evidence that we used to do that was falling down on every square meter of the Earth for billions of years before that, and will continue to fall on for billions of years
但是我们习以为常的证据,从数十亿年前就在地球上的每个角落里不断坠落, 也会在接下来的数十亿年里继续坠落。
74.afterwards. And the same is true for all the other sciences.
其他科学也同样如此。
75.As far as we know, evidence to discover the most fundamental truths of all the sciences is here just for the taking on our planet.
就我们所知,发掘所有科学大部分基本真理的证据 就在我们的星球上等待我们获取。
76.Our location is saturated with evidence, and also with matter and energy.
我们所在的地方充满了证据,还有物质和能量。
77.Out in intergalactic space, those three prerequisites for the open-ended creation of knowledge are at their lowest possible supply.
而在星系间的空间中,这三个 创造开放式知识的前提条件存在的可能性极端之小。
78.As I said, it’s empty, it’s cold, and it’s dark out there. Or is it?
正如我所说,那里空无一物,寒冷,黑暗。抑或不是如此?
79.Now actually, that’s just another parochial misconception. (Laughter) Because imagine a cube out there in intergalactic space, the same size as
事实上,这只是另外一个狭隘的误解。(观众笑声) 假想在星系间空间有一个立方体存在,
80.our home, the solar system. Now that cube is very empty by human standards, but that still means that it contains over a million tons of matter.
与我们的房屋般大小,太阳系。以我们的标准来看,这个立方体非常空, 但是它事实上仍然包含着超过百万吨的物质。
81.And a million tons is enough to make, say, a self-contained space station, on which there’s a colony of scientists that are devoted to creating an
一百万吨足够建造一个,比方说,自给自足的空间站, 在这个空间站内聚居着一群科学家,他们致力于不断创造
82.open-ended stream of knowledge, and so on.
开放式的知识,等等。
83.Now, it’s way beyond present technology to even gather the hydrogen from intergalactic space and form it into other elements and so on.
然而,现在的科技甚至连从星系间空间收集氢气 和将其转化成别的元素等都远不能做到。
84.But the thing is, in a comprehensible universe, if something isn’t forbidden by the laws of physics, then what could possibly prevent us from doing it, other than knowing how?
但问题是,在一个可理解的宇宙中, 如果某事是物理定律所允许的, 那么在我们知道如何运作的情况下,什么会妨碍我们去实践它呢?
85.In other words, it’s a matter of knowledge, not resources.
换句话说,这是一个关于知识的问题,而不是关于资源。
86.And the same — well, if we could do that we’d automatically have an energy supply, because the transmutation would be a fusion reactor — and evidence?
同样,如果我们可以做到的话,那么我们将自动获得能源供给, 因为这里的变化将是核反应堆 — 证据?
87.Well, again, it’s dark out there to human senses. But all you’ve got to do is take a telescope, even one of present-day design, look out and you’ll see the same galaxies as we do from here.
还是一样,对人类的感官来说那里漆黑一片。但是你所需要做的是 拿起一个望远镜,甚至是今天的技术设计, 往外看去,你会看到我们从这儿看到的同样的星系。
88.And with a more powerful telescope, you’ll be able to see stars, and planets.
如果你有一个更强大的望远镜,你将能看到恒星和行星。
89.In those galaxies, you’ll be able to do astrophysics, and learn the laws of physics.
在那些星系里,你可以进行天体物理学研究,了解物理定律。
90.And locally there you could build particle accelerators, and learn elementary particle physics, and chemistry, and so on.
在你所处的位置,你可以制造粒子加速器, 研究初级粒子物理学,化学等。
91.Probably the hardest science to do would be biology field trips, because it would take several hundred million years to get to the nearest life-bearing planet and back.
也许最难做的科学研究是生物学实地考察,因为需要花费 数百万年才能往返最近的有生命的星球。
92.But I have to tell you — and sorry, Richard — but I never did like biology field trips much, and I think we can just about make do with one every few hundred million years.
但是我必须告诉你 — 对不起,Richard — 但是我从来都不是那么喜欢生物学实地考察, 我想我们可以每数百万年才进行一次。
93.(Laughter) So in fact, intergalactic space does contain all the prerequisites for the open-ended creation of knowledge. Any such cube, anywhere in the universe,
(观众笑声) 因此事实上,星系间空间并不具备创造开放式知识的前提条件。 任何一个这样的立方体,在宇宙中任何地方,
94.could become the same kind of hub that we are, if the knowledge of how to do so were present there.
都可以成为跟我们一样的中心, 如果履行这一计划的知识确实存在的话。
95.So we’re not in a uniquely hospitable place.
因此我们并不是唯一热情好客的地方。
96.If intergalactic space is capable of creating an open-ended stream of explanations, then so is almost every other environment. So is the Earth. So is a polluted Earth
如果星系间空间可以创造出一串开放式的解说, 那么几乎其它所有的环境都是可以的。地球也一样。被污染的地球也是一样。
97.And the limiting factor, there and here, is not resources, because they’re plentiful, but knowledge, which is scarce.
而限制性因素,这里和那里,不是资源,因为资源很充沛, 而是知识,非常匮乏。
98.Now this cosmic knowledge-based view may — and I think ought to — make us feel very special. But it should also make us feel vulnerable,
这样一个知识型的宇宙观也许 — 我认为应该 — 让我们感觉非常不平凡。但同时也让我们感觉到自己的脆弱,
99.because it means that without the specific knowledge that’s needed to survive the ongoing challenges of the universe, we won’t survive them.
因为这也意味着如果没有那些必需的具体的知识来帮助我们应对宇宙中 源源不断地挑战,我们将无法生存。
100.All it takes is for a supernova to go off a few light years away, and we’ll all be dead!
仅仅是几光年外的一个超新星爆炸,我们都将必死无疑。
101.Martin Rees has recently written a book about our vulnerability to all sorts of things, from astrophysics, to scientific experiments gone wrong,
Martin Rees最近刚写了一本关于我们人类对于所有事物的脆弱性的书, 从天体物理学,到科学实验事故,
102.and most importantly to terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.
还有最重要的拥有大规模杀伤性武器的恐怖主义。
103.And he thinks that civilization only has a 50 percent chance of surviving this century.
他认为人类文明只有50%的机率可以存活过这个世纪。
104.I think he’s going to talk about that later in the conference.
我想他晚些时候会在这个会上给大家讲述。
105.Now I don’t think that probability is the right category to discuss this issue in.
但是我认为这一问题并不适合用机率来描述。
106.But I do agree with him about this. We can survive, and we can fail to survive.
但是我同意他就此的看法。我们可以生存下去,我们也可能不会存续。
暂无讨论,说说你的看法吧