1.I want to talk to you today a little bit about predictable irrationality.
今日我想要稍微谈论 那些预知的非理性
2.And my interest in irrational behavior started many years ago in the hospital.
我对非理性的行为态度产生兴趣 从很多年以前开始，在一个医院里
3.I was burned very badly.
当时我严重烧伤
4.And if you spend a lot of time in hospital, you’ll see a lot of types of irrationalities.
如果你在医院里待了很长时间 你将会看见许多不同类型的荒谬
5.And the one that particularly bothered me in the burn department was the process by which the nurses took the bandages off me.
在医院的烧烫伤部门让我最难以接受的荒谬 发生在护士为我拆除绷带的时候
6.Now, you must have all taken a Band-Aid off at some point, and you must have wondered what’s the right approach.
每个人应该都有使用创可贴的经验 你也应该想过怎样撕掉才是最好的
7.Do you rip it off quickly — short duration but high intensity — or do you take your Band-Aid off slowly — you take a long time, but each second is not as painful —
你是瞬间撕开 － 时间短但很痛 还是慢慢地把它撕掉 虽然时间长，但感觉不这么痛
8.which one of those is the right approach?
哪一种才是比较好的方式？
9.The nurses in my department thought that the right approach was the ripping one, so they would grab hold and they would rip, and they would grab hold and they would rip.
当时在我部门的护士认为一次快速的撕开才是正确的 她们紧抓，然后撕开 然后再紧抓，再撕开
10.And because I had 70 percent of my body burned, it would take about an hour.
当时我身体有百分之七十的烧伤，整个过程要一个小时
11.And as you can imagine, I hated that moment of ripping with incredible intensity.
你可以想象 我非常痛恨撕开绷带 极端痛苦的那刻
12.And I would try to reason with them and say, “Why don’t we try something else?
我努力地想和她们讲理 “我们不能试试其他方法吗？
13.Why don’t we take it a little longer — maybe two hours instead of an hour — and have less of this intensity?”
我们不能花长一点的时间 或许两个小时 － 让痛苦不要这么强烈？
14.And the nurses told me two things.
护士告诉我两件事
15.They told me that they had the right model of the patient — that they knew what was the right thing to do to minimize my pain — and they also told me that the word patient doesn’t mean
她们告诉我她们知道什么对患者是最好的 她们知道如何减低我的痛苦 并且患者这个词的意思
16.to make suggestions or to interfere or …
不包括”提出建议”或“尝试干涉”
17.This is not just in Hebrew, by the way.
不只在希伯来文是如此
18.It’s in every language I’ve had experience with so far.
几乎我目前遇见的所有语言都是如此
19.And, you know, there’s not much — there wasn’t much I could do, and they kept on doing what they were doing.
于是我无能为力 她们继续她们的方法
20.And about three years later, when I left the hospital, I started studying at the university.
三年后，当我离开医院时 我开始在大学做研究
21.And one of the most interesting lessons I learned was that there is an experimental method that if you have a question you can create a replica of this question
我在学校里学的最有趣的事情是 “实验法”的存在 你可以靠复制经验 来尝试找出解答
22.in some abstract way, and you can try to examine this question, maybe learn something about the world.
抽象地说，你可以试着检验你的问题 以尝试了解这个世界上的事情
23.So that’s what I did.
于是我就这么做了
24.I was still interested in this question of how do you take bandages off burn patients.
我仍然对 如何撕开患者身上的绷带这个问题很有兴趣
25.So, originally I didn’t have much money, so I went to a hardware store and I bought a carpenter’s vice.
刚开始我没有什么资金 我去五金行买了一个木匠用的老虎钳
26.And I would bring people to the lab and I would put their finger in it, and I would crunch it a little bit.
我把那些来到实验室的人的手指放到里面 然后“嘎吱”一下
27.(Laughter) And I would crunch it for long periods and short periods, and pain that went up and pain that went down, and with breaks and without breaks — all kinds of versions of pain.
（笑声） 我会用较长的时间或较短的时间挤压 那些较为严重的痛 和较轻微的痛 有休息的 和没有休息的 － 许多不同种类的痛
28.And when I finished hurting people a little bit, I would ask them, so, how painful was this? Or, how painful was this?
当我结束伤害他们的时候，我会问 这样有多痛？那样又有多痛？
29.Or, if you had to choose between the last two, which one would you choose?
如果你可以从中选择一种的话 你会选择哪一种？
30.(Laughter) I kept on doing this for a while.
（笑声） 我这么做了一阵子
31.(Laughter) And then, like all good academic projects, I got more funding.
（笑声） 就像所有优秀的学术研究一样，我有更多资金
32.I moved to sounds, electrical shocks — I even had a pain suit that could get people to feel much more pain.
我开始加入声波，电击 我甚至制作了一件“疼痛服”让人们能感受到更多痛楚
33.But at the end of this process, what I learned was that the nurses were wrong.
但在研究结束后 我发觉护士们是错的
34.Here were wonderful people with good intentions and plenty of experience, and nevertheless they were getting things wrong predictably all the time.
虽然她们都是善良的人 经验丰富，但就算如此 她们的观念仍然是错误的
35.It turns out that because we don’t encode duration in the way that we encode intensity, I would have had less pain if the duration would have been longer
因为在我们测量痛楚时 我们并没有考虑到延续性 如果把时间拉长
36.and the intensity was lower.
我的痛楚就会减低
37.It turns out it would have been better to start with my face, which was much more painful, and move towards my legs, giving me a trend of improvement over time —
最好的方法是从最痛的脸部开始 再逐渐地往腿部下移 让我有一种逐渐减缓的感觉
38.that would have been also less painful.
这样也能减低我的痛苦
39.And it also turns out that it would have been good to give me breaks in the middle to kind of recuperate from the pain.
如果我可以在过程中稍作休息 让我有一些时间从痛楚中恢复
40.All of these would have been great things to do, and my nurses had no idea.
这所有的方法都能改善我当时的情况 但这些护士却毫无所悉
41.And from that point on I started thinking, are the nurses the only people in the world who get things wrong in this particular decision, or is it a more general case?
从那时我开始想 这些护士是全世界唯一有这种错误认知的人 在这件特别的事情上，还是这其实是一种普遍现象？
42.And it turns out it’s a more general case — there’s a lot of mistakes we do.
于是我发现 其实这是一个普遍现象 我们时常犯下这样的错误
43.And I want to give you one example of one of these irrationalities, and I want to talk to you about cheating.
在这里我想以作弊作为例子 来讨论这些非理性
44.And the reason I picked cheating is because it’s interesting, but also it tells us something, I think, about the stock market situation we’re in.
我选择作弊的原因是因为它很有趣 也因为它也为我们现在股市的现状 提供了一些线索
45.So, my interest in cheating started when Enron came on the scene, exploded all of a sudden, and I started thinking about what is happening here.
我对作弊的兴趣从 美国安然公司突然爆发丑闻开始 我开始思考究竟发生了什么事情
46.Is it the case that there was kind of a few bad apples who are capable of doing these things, or are we talking a more endemic situation,
难道这是来自一些 害群之马才能犯下的例子 还是一种地方性的现象
47.that many people are actually capable of behaving this way?
许多人都抱持着这样的态度？
48.So, like we usually do, I decided to do a simple experiment.
于是，我们决定故技重施，进行一些简单的试验
49.And here’s how it went.
我们是这样做的
50.If you were in the experiment, I would pass you a sheet of paper with 20 simple math problems that everybody could solve, but I wouldn’t give you enough time.
如果你参加了这个实验，我会给你一张纸 上面有二十个人人能解决的简单数学问题 但我不会给你足够的时间
51.When the five minutes were over, I would say, “Pass me the sheets of paper, and I’ll pay you a dollar per question.”
当五分钟到了以后，我会说 “把纸交给我，答对一题我就给你一块钱。”
52.People did this. I would pay people four dollars for their task — on average people would solve four problems.
人们这么做了。我付他们四块 平均来说，人可以解决四个问题
53.Other people I would tempt to cheat.
我尝试引诱其中一些人作弊
54.I would pass their sheet of paper.
我会给他们一张纸
55.When the five minutes were over, I would say, “Please shred the piece of paper.
五分钟到了以后，我会说 “请将那张纸撕碎
56.Put the little pieces in your pocket or in your backpack, and tell me how many questions you got correctly.”
把碎片放在口袋或是背包里， 然后告诉我你答对了几题。”
57.People now “solved” seven questions on average.
平均突然从四题变成了七题
58.Now, it wasn’t as if there was a few bad apples — a few people cheated a lot.
不是有几个害群之马 — 换句话说，一小群人作很大的弊
59.Instead, what we saw is a lot of people who cheat a little bit.
而是一大群人作一些小弊
60.Now, in economic theory, cheating is a very simple cost-benefit analysis.
在经济学理论上 作弊是一种非常简单的成本效益分析
61.You say, what’s the probability of being caught?
被抓到的可能性有多高？
62.How much do I stand to gain from cheating?
我作弊的好处有多少？
63.And how much punishment would I get if I get caught?
被抓到会有怎样的惩罚？
64.And you weigh these options out — you do the simple cost-benefit analysis, and you decide whether it’s worthwhile to commit the crime or not.
你衡量这些选项 一个简单的成本效益分析 然后决定是否值得犯下罪行
65.So, we try to test this.
我们对此进行一些测验
66.For some people. we varied how much money they could get away with — how much money they could steal.
我们开始给他们不同数目的金钱 他们所能偷窃的数目
67.We paid them 10 cents per correct question, 50 cents, a dollar, five dollars, 10 dollars per correct question.
我们给他们十分钱，五十分 一块钱，五块钱，到十块钱一个问题
68.You would expect that as the amount of money on the table increases, people would cheat more, but in fact it wasn’t the case.
你预估当桌上的钱增多时 人们也更愿意作弊。但事实上却不是
69.We got a lot of people cheating by stealing by a little bit.
仍有许多人为了很少的金钱作弊
70.What about the probability of being caught?
那难道是被抓到的可能性吗？
71.Some people shredded half the sheet of paper, so there was some evidence left.
有些人只撕了半张纸 还有些证据留下
72.Some people shredded the whole sheet of paper.
有些人撕碎了整张纸
73.Some people shredded everything, went out of the room, and paid themselves from the bowl of money that had over 100 dollars.
有些人彻底撕碎了全部，走出房间 然后从放有超过百元美金的碗里拿走钱
74.You would expect that as the probability of being caught goes down, people would cheat more, but again, this was not the case.
你会预估当被抓的可能性降低 人们作弊的几率便会提升，但却不是如此
75.Again, a lot of people cheated by just by a little bit, and they were insensitive to these economic incentives.
又一次地，许多人作了一些小弊 人们并没被这些经济学所说的诱因影响
76.So we said, “If people are not sensitive to the economic rational theory explanations, to these forces, what could be going on?”
我们想“如果这些符合经济学逻辑的解答 这些原因，对人们不造成影响 那么究竟发生了什么事？”
77.And we thought maybe what is happening is that there are two forces.
于是我们想，或许有两种力量
78.At one hand, we all want to look at ourselves in the mirror and feel good about ourselves, so we don’t want to cheat.
一方面，我们都有自省的能力 都希望对自己感觉良好，所以我们不想作弊
79.On the other hand, we can cheat a little bit, and still feel good about ourselves.
另一方面，我们作一点小弊 在还能对自己感觉良好的范围里
80.So, maybe what is happening is that there’s a level of cheating we can’t go over, but we can still benefit from cheating at a low degree,
所以或许 我们心中有一种不能跨越的尺度 但我们仍然能从一些小奸小恶中获利
81.as long as it doesn’t change our impressions about ourselves.
只要不要让我们自己感到不齿
82.We call this like a personal fudge factor.
我们说这叫“自我蒙混因素”
83.Now, how would you test a personal fudge factor?
但我们该如何测试自我蒙混因素呢？
84.Initially we said, what can we do to shrink the fudge factor?
刚开始我们说，我们该怎么做来降低蒙混因素呢？
85.So, we got people to the lab, and we said, “We have two tasks for you today.”
当人们进入实验室时，我们说 “今日我们要给你两个任务。”
86.First, we asked half the people to recall either 10 books they read in high school, or to recall The Ten Commandments, and then we tempted them with cheating.
第一，我们问其中一半的人 回想十本他们在高中所看过的书 或是回忆圣经中的十诫 然后我们尝试让他们作弊。
87.Turns out the people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments — and in our sample nobody could recall all of The Ten Commandments —
我们发觉那些尝试回想十诫的人 虽然在我们的标本中没有任何人能完整背诵出十诫
88.but those people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments, given the opportunity to cheat, did not cheat at all.
但那些尝试回想圣经十诫的人 面对作弊的可能性，却没有作弊
89.It wasn’t that the more religious people — the people who remembered more of the Commandments — cheated less, and the less religious people —
那并不代表对宗教信仰比较虔诚的人 那些能背诵出较多十诫的人，比较少作弊 或那些对宗教信仰比较不虔诚的人
90.the people who couldn’t remember almost any Commandments — cheated more.
那些无法回忆出任何一诫的人 比较会作弊
91.The moment people thought about trying to recall The Ten Commandments, they stopped cheating.
在人们尝试回想十诫的那一刻 他们便不作弊了
92.In fact, even when we gave self-declared atheists the task of swearing on the Bible and we give them a chance to cheat, they didn’t cheat at all.
事实上，就算我们让那些自称是无神论的人 把手放在圣经上发誓，然后再给他们作弊的机会 他们也仍然没有作弊
93.Now, Ten Commandments is something that is hard to bring into the education system, so we said, “Why don’t we get people to sign the honor code?”
要把圣经十诫带进教育系统里 是一件困难的事，所以我们说 “不然我们让人们在荣誉行为准则上签名吧？”
94.So, we got people to sign, “I understand that this short survey falls under the MIT Honor Code.”
于是，我们让他们签名， “我认知这份简短调查遵行麻省理工学院的荣誉准则”
95.Then they shredded it. No cheating whatsoever.
然后把它撕碎。没有任何人作弊
96.And this is particularly interesting, because MIT doesn’t have an honor code.
这真是非常有趣 因为麻省理工学院根本没有任何荣誉准则
97.(Laughter) So, all this was about decreasing the fudge factor.
（笑声） 这是有关降低蒙混因素的
98.What about increasing the fudge factor?
又如何提高蒙混因素呢？
99.The first experiment — I walked around MIT and I distributed six-packs of Cokes in the refrigerators — these were common refrigerators for the undergrads.
第一个实验中 我在麻省理工学院游走 我把半打可乐放进不同的冰箱中 都是些给大学生的普通冰箱
100.And I came back to measure what we technically call the half-lifetime of Coke — how long does it last in the refrigerators?
然后再回去测量我们所说的 可乐的人生周期 – 它们能在冰箱里留多久？
101.As you can expect it doesn’t last very long. People take it.
你可以想象那并没有多久。人们拿走它们。
102.In contrast, I took a plate with six one-dollar bills, and I left those plates in the same refrigerators.
相对的，我把一个装着六章一块钱美金钞票的盘子 放进那些同样的冰箱
103.No bill ever disappeared.
没有任何一张美金被拿走
104.Now, this is not a good social science experiment, so to do it better I did the same experiment as I described to you before.
这大概不是一个好的社会科学实验 为了改善我再做了一次一样的实验 就像我和诸位形容的一样
105.A third of the people we passed the sheet, they gave it back to us.
三分之一的人把试验纸交会给我们
106.A third of the people we passed it to, they shredded it, they came to us and said, “Mr. Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X dollars.”
三分之一的人把纸撕碎 他们跟我们说 “先生，我解决了几个问题，给我几块钱。”
107.A third of the people, when they finished shredding the piece of paper, they came to us and said, “Mr Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X tokens.”
三分之一的人，在他们把纸撕碎以后 他们跟我们说 “先生，我解决了几个问题，给我几个代币。”
108.We did not pay them with dollars. We paid them with something else.
我们没有付他们现金，而是一些其他的代替品
109.And then they took the something else, they walked 12 feet to the side, and exchanged it for dollars.
他们拿着这些代替品，走到十二英尺远的旁边 再把代替品换成现金
110.Think about the following intuition.
试着想想以下的假设状况
111.How bad would you feel about taking a pencil from work home, compared to how bad would you feel about taking 10 cents from a petty cash box?
从公司拿一支铅笔 或是从公司钱柜里拿走十分钱 哪一种感觉比较差？
112.These things feel very differently.
这些事给人的感觉差异很大
113.Would being a step removed from cash for a few seconds by being paid by token make a difference?
把现金移动到稍为远一点的地方，改拿代币 能不能造成什么差异？
114.Our subjects doubled their cheating.
我们实验对象的作弊情况提高了两倍
115.I’ll tell you what I think about this and the stock market in a minute.
稍后我会告诉你 这些例子和股市有什么关联
116.But this did not solve the big problem I had with Enron yet, because in Enron, there’s also a social element.
但这仍然无法解决我对安然公司的疑问 因为在安然，还有一个社会性的元素
117.People see each other behaving.
人们眼见其他人的作为
118.In fact, every day when we open the news we see examples of people cheating.
事实上，每天我们看新闻 都能看到人们作弊欺骗的例子
119.What does this cause us?
这怎么影响我们？
120.So, we did another experiment.
所以，我们又做了另一个实验
121.We got a big group of students to be in the experiment, and we prepaid them.
我们召来一大群学生来参加实验 我们先付他们钱
122.So everybody got an envelope with all the money for the experiment, and we told them that at the end, we asked them to pay us back the money they didn’t make. OK?
所以每个人都先拿到装着实验回馈的信封 在结束时，我们请他们 把没有赚到的钱还给我们
123.The same thing happens.
同样的事情发生了
124.When we give people the opportunity to cheat, they cheat.
当我们给人们作弊的机会，他们作弊了
125.They cheat just by a little bit, but all the same.
他们只作了一点小弊，但都一样
126.But in this experiment we also hired an acting student.
但这次我们请来一位学生演员
127.This acting student stood up after 30 seconds, and said, “I solved everything. What do I do now?”
这个学生演员在三十秒后站起来，说 “我解开所有题目了，现在呢？”
128.And the experimenter said, “If you’ve finished everything, go home.”
实验者则回答”如果你做完所有题目了，就回去吧。“
129.That’s it. The task is finished.
就这样。任务结束了。
暂无讨论，说说你的看法吧
